Posts by shepherdless

34

Thinking about the end of the Watchtower

by JeffT in

jw
friends

first, a word about the watchtower’s financial position: nobody (outside the watchtower organization) knows.

the wtbs is not required to disclose its finances, and doesn’t.

we can speculate, but that is all we are doing.

shepherdless

How many religions with over one million members have collapsed in the last 100 years?

None have collapsed completely. Most Christian religions of that size or above have shrunk.

The best 2 examples of a significant Christian religion going to near collapse in relatively recent times are Worldwide Church of God (now under a new name) and the Christian Scientists (also known as the First Church of Christ, Scientist, and not to be confused with Scientology)

The Worldwide Church of God had about 145,000 members at one stage. It has less than a third of that now. They lost many adherents after they abandoned many of their more radical doctrines. That was a mistake the Borg would have taken note of.

The Christian Scientists for much of their history were larger than JWism. They had about 270,000 adherents in USA in 1936. In an eerie similarity to what may happen to the Borg, the Christian Scientists tried to become something of a multimedia organisation, producing the Christian Science Monitor, some television news programs, some journals, and a 24 hour news channel. It nearly went broke in the process.

34

Thinking about the end of the Watchtower

by JeffT in

jw
friends

first, a word about the watchtower’s financial position: nobody (outside the watchtower organization) knows.

the wtbs is not required to disclose its finances, and doesn’t.

we can speculate, but that is all we are doing.

shepherdless

This topic is something I have been thinking about for a while.

I think that should something major happen to the Society we will see a wave of depression, anxiety and suicide the likes of which we’ve never seen.

I am sure it will be bad, but I doubt there will be large numbers of suicides. I think it will be similar to post-1975. A lot will leave and a lot will find some other reason to continue to believe. Another historical guide is the "Great Disappointment" of 1844. After the Great Disappointment, instead of disbanding, Millerites went on to form the Adventist churches.

I expect that most Witnesses will eventually (or sooner) find somebody to tell them what to do. It would not be difficult for somebody (perhaps even the current governing body) to set up a new religion that looks very much like the old one. We’ll still be fighting the same enemy, he’ll just go by a different name.

Yes, this worries me the most. Borg ver 2.0 will have a free hand to ditch the inconvenient aspects of its history and iron out the flaws in its theology. Borg ver 2.0 might be more difficult to deal with.

However, Borg ver 2.0 will have some major hurdles. Firstly the current Borg is busy consuming all the cash and assets, selling surplus Kingdom Halls, etc. There may be less and less infrastructure available for Borg ver 2.0 to use. Secondly, the very centralised style of religion where everything globally is micromanaged from New York would be very hard to re-create in a relatively short period of time, and it would be a very daunting financial risk for even a member of the GB to try to do.

In any event, even though I thing the Borg has serious long-term financial issues, I am not expecting the Borg to collapse in the near future.

4

"See, I told you so!!"

by stuckinarut2 in

a thought occurred to me that most humans (whether they like to admit it or not) love to take a firm and proud stance on something, and love to be able to say to others "see, i told you so!".

this arrogance creates a proud and determined mindset to make people dig their heels in on a stance they have taken - all in the hope that they can one day be proven right, and therefore prove someone else wrong.. so it is with most witnesses.

they are so desperate to be proven correct after all they have invested in their faith, and they have a keen desire to say "see i told you so!".

shepherdless

Very true.

31

10 Graphs that show that the Watchtower is in trouble in Mexico

by ILoveTTATT2 in

jw
friends

mexico is by far the country where the witnesses have had the most success in the entire world.

almost any statistic except the total amount of witnesses shows that mexico is where the witnesses have had the wildest success in the world.proportional to population, the witnesses in mexico are double, or nearly triple, what they are in the us or brazil.but there is "trouble in paradise".

if mexico falls, pretty much the whole watchtower falls.which is why it is so important to have jwfacts translated to spanish.i made an analysis and things are looking bad in mexico... if trends continue, mexico will become just like the 1st-world countries.here is the first graph:maximum publisher % increase:.

shepherdless

Firstly, let me applaud ILoveTTAT for his/her work, including translating jwfacts. It is extremely important work.

One comment and two questions:

If Mexico falls, pretty much the whole Watchtower falls.

Maybe in membership numbers, that is sort of true. However, Watchtower is essentially a business, and that means wealthy USA with its 1.2 million is by far the most important "Land". That being said, the borg is proportionaly more of a blight on the people of Mexico than virtually any country in the world.

First question: I was wondering whether Mexico becoming any less overwhelmingly Catholic, which may partially explain the flattening growth. My reason for asking is that I have noticed that the borg's success in any particular country seems to be directly proportional to how "Christian" a country is. Countries where there is a high proportion of the polulation professing Christianity seem to have the most JWs. Countries where the proportion of Christians are dropping seem to have had lower JW growth.

Second question: Does anyone know if JWs in Mexico are getting older on average (as statistical data shows they are in Aust and USA)? My reason for asking is that, after sifting a lot of data elsewhere (see my own threads), that gradually flattening growth is likely to coincide, even caused by, a membership that is ageing, which in turn is a reliable predictor of future growth/decline. Average age in a religion where many people are joining and leaving is not that important, but JWism is now a religion where there are few converts, and so the issue is very important. If the average age of JWs is increasing, or significantly above the population, it amounts to "locked-in" future decline.

But thanks again, ILoveTTATT. Please keep up the good fight.

9

Not a lot of young people

by Akid48 in

i have look around and im counting 5-18 for young aka kids or teens we only have 4 includeing me that can think on there own and are teens.the only other kids there are 3 5 or to young to even think that there mom or dad are wrong on any thing.. just wanting to know if any if any one see this at a kingdom hall..

shepherdless

I never attend, but my son (who no longer attends) said much the same thing. Some very young kids, a few young teenagers, and then virtually nobody between his age and his mother.

On another thread, I set out a table using Australian census data, of JWs in 5 year age groups. There is an astonishing drop off in young people over the last decade. It must be wierd to be a young person attending a Kingdom Hall in Australia, at least, these days.

Interestingly, when extracting census data, I noticed that Seventh Day Adventists in Aust had a lot more kids, despite being a much smaller religion.

28

Facial hair and Witnesses

by Jules Saturn in

i never understood why the society was against beards or goatees but completely okay with mustaches.

what's the difference?

facial hair is facial hair, whether it's above your lip or around your cheeks or under your chin.

shepherdless

Sorry to point out the obvious, but market research from eons back has shown that door to door salesmen have more success if they don't have beards. The whole Watchtower dress code is about what market research shows is (or was) most successful in door to door marketing.

27

ANGOLA - JW Regional Convention target of attack.

by EdenOne in

according to news sources in luanda, angola (read it here, although it's in portuguese language), a regional convention of the jw's taking place this weekend at the outskirts of capital luanda was targeted yesterday, friday, by what may be described as a 'terrorist attack'.. more than 400 attendees (mostly female) passed out in rapid succession in the vicinity of a toilet at the convention place.

reportedly, toxic gas devices were planted there by 3 young members of unita, the main political party that opposed mpla, the dominant regime party in angola since its independence in 1975.

43 people were rushed to the hospital and a few remain there, under medical surveillance.

shepherdless

No worries, darkspilver. I wasn't really offended. I actually don't know my wife read, b.t.w.

27

ANGOLA - JW Regional Convention target of attack.

by EdenOne in

according to news sources in luanda, angola (read it here, although it's in portuguese language), a regional convention of the jw's taking place this weekend at the outskirts of capital luanda was targeted yesterday, friday, by what may be described as a 'terrorist attack'.. more than 400 attendees (mostly female) passed out in rapid succession in the vicinity of a toilet at the convention place.

reportedly, toxic gas devices were planted there by 3 young members of unita, the main political party that opposed mpla, the dominant regime party in angola since its independence in 1975.

43 people were rushed to the hospital and a few remain there, under medical surveillance.

shepherdless

Darkspilver, I don't know if that is what she read. However, before we try, convict and execute my wife of being a heartless individual, on reflection I actually coloured her interpretation of it as she explained it, and she agreed and went along with my cynical interpretation. I am the heartless one.

I point out that it is easy to interpret the real story as:

a stink eminated from the toilets (perhaps ammonia or H2S);
a few people felt faint, triggering a group hysteria where a number of people collapsed in sympathy saying they were unwell, feeling faint, being poisoned etc;
3 randoms in the crowd were captured and accused of being responsible;
the 405 "unconscious" people went to hospital and were told to calm down and sent home.

In support of this version of events, what sort of gas could render 405 people in an open air environment unconscious, without killing anybody, and yet wear off so quickly that a hospital would feel comfortable sending them home? I am sure an anethestist could confirm that that is impossible. Also, any group capable of pulling that off is going to be far too clever to be caught in the vicinity.

Also, getting 405 unconscious people to hospitals is a major logistical exercise, as is treating them. If the story was true, that part of the story would have been significant, with stories of ambulances and doctors being overwhelmed, etc.

Also, in such circumstances, do you really think they would allow the convention to continue the next day?

The only part of the story that may realistically be true is that the arrested 3 did actually release a smelly gas.

114

Breaking News - NK Missile Overflies Japan

by cofty in

story breaking on reuters here.... kim jong-un seems determined to start a war.

nk is a national cult of personality.

hating the rest of the world is the first tenet of faith..

shepherdless

Waiting for China to magically change 40 years of foreign policy is a hare-brained Obama idea.

I don't know if that is in response to my comment, but who said anything about "waiting"? To get China to act, the international community might need to apply some firm persuasion on the issue, probably through the threat of international trade restrictions or sanctions on China itself, or some other such means. Also, China is probably not comfortable with missiles that close to cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, in any event.

The US can either act or not. Not acting means they will be shooting ICBMs across the US continent within a decade.

True, but what action are you proposing? A military action? Are you aware Seoul is well within NK artillery range?

114

Breaking News - NK Missile Overflies Japan

by cofty in

story breaking on reuters here.... kim jong-un seems determined to start a war.

nk is a national cult of personality.

hating the rest of the world is the first tenet of faith..

shepherdless

Looking back at history, it seems the Clinton administration was very close to doing a deal with North Korea to shut down the missile program. The Bush Junior administration continued the discussions, and it looked like they were progressing. Then within a few months after September 11, Bush was referring to NK as part of the axis of evil and all meaningful discussion ceased.

Hence in broad terms, I think it is silly to blame either Trump or Obama for the current situation. This is just the culmination of a failure to deal with the situation 15 to 20 years ago.

At the moment, it seems to me that the only realistic way of dealing with NK is to get China to put a stop to it. China has the power to do so, as almost all export income received by NK is from China, and NK gets all its fuel through China. If, for example, China cut fuel supplies to NK, NK would probably cave in within a month.