Hi Steve, no the “self-reported” number is a decrease, from 85,635 in 2011 to 82,512 in 2016.
shepherdless
JoinedPosts by shepherdless
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27
JW Decline: additional data from Aust 2016 census
by shepherdless inabout 9 months ago, i started this thread:.
https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/6298997348106240/aust-2016-census-observations-jws-getting-older-more-kids-leaving-30-group-arent-returning.
i have had a little spare time, so i thought i would present some of the data in a more user friendly manner, with some additional detail.. 1. median age.
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JW Decline: additional data from Aust 2016 census
by shepherdless inabout 9 months ago, i started this thread:.
https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/6298997348106240/aust-2016-census-observations-jws-getting-older-more-kids-leaving-30-group-arent-returning.
i have had a little spare time, so i thought i would present some of the data in a more user friendly manner, with some additional detail.. 1. median age.
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shepherdless
About 9 months ago, I started this thread:
I have had a little spare time, so I thought I would present some of the data in a more user friendly manner, with some additional detail.
1. Median Age
Just to re-hash, in my earlier thread, I reported that from 2006 to 2016, the median age of JWs went from 38.7 to 43.9. Over the same time period, median age in the Aust population increased from 37.0 to 38.1. Median age in a population is the best single number to predict whether a population is in, or about to suffer, a decline. The increase in median age for JWs (over 5 years in a period of 10 years) indicates a major shift. It will probably go higher, but even if it doesn't, it tips JWism into decline in the future.
2. Population Tree
You may have heard of this sort of graph. It also gives a more detailed indication of where a population is heading. Here are 2 population trees for Aust as a whole, which I extracted from the 2006 and 2016 census data:
The first is 2006. The second is 2016. You will see that it doesn't vary that much.
Compare that to the population trees for Aust JWs alone (2006, 2011 and 2016, in order):
Something has been hacking into the lower limbs of that population tree. So much so, it is starting to look like a lolipop. It seems that particularly in the last 10 years, young ones (15 to 25) have been leaving, and it is now starting to have an impact on the number born into the Borg. This is what is driving the median age higher.
3. Pod breeding stock is decreasing
If the above is not enough to convince you that decline is "in the wind", then here is a really simple chart. Every born-in needs a mother. Most born-ins will have a JW mother under 40 years of age. Yes, occasionally a male JW will drag a normal female in, occasionally a female JW over 40 will have a kid, and some come via immigration, but it is pretty safe to say that the bulk of future born-ins will be born to these "females under 40". "Females under 40" are in decline:
That represents a 14% decline in 10 years. The reality is probably a little worse, because a disproportionate number is approaching 40. What this means is that altough the numbers have so far only declined a little, larger decline is inevitable.
4. But aren't all religions losing young ones?
Not to this extent. See for example the population tree for the Seventh Day Adventists. Here is a religion that is only 3/4 the size of the Borg in Aust yet still has more kids in the 0 to 4 age category. Note there is no "lolipop" forming yet.
5. The "Return to Jehovah" effect is significant
I have previously described this effect. In preparing this, I relaise that it is larger than I thought. As shown above, and as you are probably aware, a lot of people leave the Borg between the ages of 15 and 25. It seems to me from the data that a lot of those who leave are POMI, and come back after they start to have kids. This shows up in the date in 2 ways.
Firstly, the census data shows that the number of kids in the 5 to 9 age bracket increases significantly compared to the 0 to 4 age bracket, of 5 years earlier. You can see this in the JW population trees above. This can partially be explained (but not completely) by immigration.
Secondly, there is a large discrepancy between boys and girls in the 0 to 4 age bracket. Eg, in 2016, 5.0% of boys and 3.5% of girls fell into that bracket. The difference between 5.0 and 3.5 is far too large to be random. I think it is that POMI mothers are more likely to "return to jehovah" if they have a young boy to bring into the congregation. However, I would be happy to take any other suggestions as to what is happening here.
If my explanation of the 5.0% vs 3.5% is correct, then it follows that the "Return to Jehovahs" make up 30% or more, of the parents of these young kids. Of course for this to be the case, there would have to be an offsetting outflow of other JWs in the 25 to 30 bracket, to account for the lack of increase in this category.
6. Activism
If what I have said about "Return to Jehovahs" is correct, it seems to me that an effective activism strategy would be to target the POMIs with TTATT. If all these POMIs stopped returning, the effect would be dramatic. (I think the internet is already doing a good job of that, but I thought I would mention it.)
7. Effect of Immigration
The numbers for the Borg in Aust would be worse, if it was not for immigration. I have extracted breakdowns of the number of JWs who (a) in the 2011 census said they resided outside of Australia in 2006 (and hence were not included in the 2006 census), and (b) in the 2016 census said they resided outside of Australia in 2011 (and hence were not included in the 2011 census). In essence:
(a) Between 2006 and 2011, 3472 JWs entered Australia, and the total number of JWs only increased by 4717 (despite all the baptisms over that 5 year period).
(b) Between 2011 and 2016, 2706 JWs entered Australia, but the total number of JWs DECREASED by 3123.
No, we haven't started burying them in a quarry in the outback. It is just that the number of JWs arriving in Aust aren't covering the numbers of young ones leaving the Borg in Aust. (Also of course there would be a smaller but significant number leaving Aust.)
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Why are there more sisters than brothers at the Kingdom Hauls?
by Sour Grapes ini have always wondered why there are more females than males in all of the congregations that i have visited?
some of these females are in their 70's so maybe their husbands have died and women just live longer.
or could the reason be that years ago men were the breadwinners and women stayed home to raise the children thus they were home during the week when the jdubs came a knocking?
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shepherdless
It is not unique to JW's but the phenomena appears to be a little more pronounced than any other Christian religion. Here is a bit of data I downloaded from the Aust 2016 census:
So 56.48% of JWs in Aust are women.
Interestingly, it does not start out that way. For some reason, the "Return to Jehovahs" (what I label POMIs who return to the Borg after having kids) are more likely to return if they bring a male child with them, than a female child. Here is the same chart, but only filtering out all those under 10 years of age:
It is an interesting phenomena. I have my suspicions why, but I will leave that to others to comment.
What happens after? I won't produce lots of charts, but essentially, boys outnumber girls, but as they go through the teenage years and early 20's, the boys leave in slightly greater numbers.
If I filter out everyone under 50 years of age (ie include only those 50 and above) the chart looks like:
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How old's the human race?
by Freedom rocks inhi does anyone know any good articles or videos about how old mankind and the earth are and carbon dating?
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i've just started looking into it but there seems to be a lot of conflicting ideas over accuracy so i'm unsure what to think.
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shepherdless
Hooberus, I suggest that you read some real scientific literature, not that creationist pseudo-science.
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How old's the human race?
by Freedom rocks inhi does anyone know any good articles or videos about how old mankind and the earth are and carbon dating?
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i've just started looking into it but there seems to be a lot of conflicting ideas over accuracy so i'm unsure what to think.
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shepherdless
It doesn’t work like that, Venus. There has been a massive population explosion in the last couple of centuries due to modern health and sanitation, modern medicine, the Haber process, etc. Before that, population levels were relatively stable, even over millenia.
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another business idea for watchtower PLC
by stan livedeath inits been mentioned before---care homes.
in the uk there are a few ( no idea how many ) jireh care homes--loosely connected with the watchtower.. but take this on board.
the dubs are an ever aging customer base.. in the uk, lots of the ageing population end their years in privately run care homes.
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shepherdless
The Catholics have been running lots of care homes, hospices etc in Aust for decades, if not longer. Other religions do as well. The SDA has a large care facility not that far from us. Watchtower (at least in Aust) is perhaps one of the few significant Christian religions that doesn’t.
I actually mentioned the idea to my wife some time ago, the concept of building a care facility for elderly JWs. I said Watchtower is never going to build something like that, there are a lot of elderly JWs who don’t seem to have a lot of means and would be after something affordable. A business opportunity for someone.
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If the Watchtower corporation went bust
by Fred Franztone inwhat do you think would happen to jehovah's witnesses as a religion and as a people?.
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shepherdless
It is a difficult question to answer, without making assumptions about the manner in which the Borg might go bust.
Firstly, I think Watchtower to "go bust", the US branch would have to go bust, in its own right. Whatever happens in the rest of the world is irrelevant by comparison.
Secondly, it would make quite a difference whether the "bust" is due to a default with a financier, or just a failure to keep paying salaries and various operating expenses. I don't think I have ever seen any evidence that Watchtower has borrowed money, so I would assume the latter.
If the above 2 assumptions are correct, it would be difficult for the US branch to go bust in a spectacular manner. Instead, would would see them become late payers on everything, shutting down any significant expensive operations (eg printing), reducing funding for overseas missionaries, laying off bethelites, and selling off non-core assets (ie underutilized Kingdom Halls, etc). That is pretty much what they are doing now (except I don't know whether or not they are late payers).
If the above is the actual situation (which is really just a cash flow issue), then it could go on for decades. It would not create any sudden drop in adherents, but it would be corrosive to the numbers over time.
If (hypothetically) the US branch does have significant financial debts, and it were to default, it may not become public knowledge, unless the default is spectacular, in some way. I don't see that happening, but if it did, perhaps it could cause some adherents to peer behind the curtain. Unfortunately, the majority would probably just follow whatever explanation the GB gave.
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Clearly, undeniably, without doubt ... is there a term for introducing a thought in such a way.
by jwfacts inwatchtower article often introduce a point that has no merit with words such a "undeniably.".
for instance the watchtower 2014 august 15 page 10 says:.
"jehovah undeniably blesses the preaching work of christian women and supports them in times of trial.
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shepherdless
Is there an official term for this type of fallacious reasoning?
It seems to me it could arguably fall into any one of the following fallacies. They overlap:
Non sequitor
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non_sequitur_(logic)
Ipse dixit
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ipse_dixit
proof by assertion
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Victoria, Australia:Survivors of sexual abuse to be able to sue churches
by AndersonsInfo inhttp://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-24/survivors-of-sexual-abuse-to-be-able-to-sue-churches/9481000.
sexual abuse survivors in victoria to be able to sue churches as government moves to end 'ellis defence'.
updated about 2 hours ago.
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shepherdless
The Ellis defense is explained in the following link:
http://lawgeekdownunder.blogspot.com/2012/11/a-little-law-about-catholic-church.html
I don't think Watchtower in Australia (full name: Watchtower Bible & Tract Society Of Australia, Inc) could use that defence, because, unlike the Catholic Church, it IS an incorporated association. However, the proposed law should remove any doubt.
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Hatred of Jews
by minimus ini have never understood the hatred and dislike towards jewish people.
so many people are bothered by jewish influence.. do you have anti jewish bias?
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shepherdless
Religion is very good at creating an “us and them” mentality, and antisemetism is one of the consequences.
Religion by its nature, is tribal. Sadly, that applies to mainstream religions, not just cults. I suspect that that is one of the main reasons organised religions have been able to survive and dominate, over the centuries.