shepherdless

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Posts by shepherdless

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  60

  Now I'm Convinced There Probably Is No God

  by pale.emperor in

  1. jw
  2. experiences

  yesterday i made a visit to the museum in my city.

  the top floor is the planetarium, which has a connecting room with a huge dome ceiling where they project lessons and lectures and you have a 360 view of the night sky etc.. this particular lecture explained about our galaxy, and how it's only one of billions in the universe.

  and then we learned about each planet, some of their moons and the sun.

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  shepherdless

  We shouldn't start these arguments again, but I cant resist.

  A hat rests on a head. A head is part of a human. The human sits on a chair. The chair rests on the floor. The floor is part of the building. The building has foundations. The foundations are secured to the ground. The ground is part of the earth's geology. The planet itself is the ultimate ground of orientation. What does the planet rest upon?

  A turtle, of course. And that turtle sits on anther turtle, etc.

  Seriously, I think the above argument is just another way of stating the third of Thomas Aquinas's 5 arguments in favor of the existence of God, summarized here:

  http://web.mnstate.edu/gracyk/courses/web%20publishing/aquinasfiveways_argumentanalysis.htm

  
  Edit: For the record, those arguments don't convince me. I could go into quantum mechanics, but don't want to start one of those endless debates again.
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  117

  2017 Yearbook released

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw this on reddit:.

  https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

  overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

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  shepherdless

  The trend in NZ in more recent census reports is about 20 percent more are endorsed as affiliated with the JWs than those counted as publishers - because it asks about affiliation not active participation. In addition, each child has that question (which parents answer). And, of course, those who are "inactive" but still believe JW organization is the "Truth" can also endorse affiliation.

  On another thread, I included a breakdown from the Aust census of JW affiliation vs age, in 5 year cohorts. If you subtract those in the 0 to 5, 5 to 10 and 10 to 15 cohorts, you get roughly the number of those who identified with the borg is roughly the same number as the publishers. As 10 to 15 year olds seem generally to be publishers, my guess would be that the number of people who believe but don't publish would be closer to 5%. That being said, I can't understand how they manage to get the numbers to the memorial attendance.

  ...and for the first time in decades, the number affiliated with 7th-Day Adventists was greater than the number affiliated with JWs...

  
  Same in Australia in 2011 census; SDA overtook JW. From memory, Mormons have overtaken JW's in Aust, as well.
  
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  117

  2017 Yearbook released

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw this on reddit:.

  https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

  overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

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  shepherdless

  Just an additional point, detailed results from last year's Australian census should be available in about April or May this year.

  These censuses occur every 5 years, and completion of censuses in Australia are compulsory. The "religious affiliation" section of the census is not compulsory, but most people fill it out anyway.

  In a post on another thread, I pointed out that the trend from the last 3 Aust censuses show lower growth than what Watchtower Yearbook publisher numbers for Australia suggest. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues.
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  117

  2017 Yearbook released

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw this on reddit:.

  https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

  overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

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  shepherdless

  Hi sbf, I haven't read anything by David Voas. I looked up some of his articles, and they look really interesting. Unfortunately it seems you have to pay to read the full articles.

  I agree that it will be interesting to see how they handle decline. Some here argue it will be interpreted as a sign that the end is near. That might work for a short while. However, it seems to me that JW's generally struggle to justify why their religion is the one true one, these days, and one they seem to turn to is bandwagon fallacy (ie that 8 million others believe, then we must be right). It will be fascinating to see how they react if that bandwagon starts rolling in the wrong direction.
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  117

  2017 Yearbook released

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw this on reddit:.

  https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

  overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

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  shepherdless

  I think JWs are in serious decline from here on in.

  
  

  That is a big call, SBF. I hope you are right.

  I noticed some of the same things when I skimmed through the Yearbook, such as a huge part of it taken up with Georgia, where growth has virtually stopped. There was also the "spin" Watchtower put on the takeover by Rutherford, which would not sound very convincing to a neutral observer.

  Perhaps the single most telling point is the slight decline in congregations in USA. That must hurt the borg more than any decline in any other country.
  
  

  My guess would be next year will be flat again, with some spectacular growth in 2 or 3 random African countries giving the appearance of overall growth. I think "serious decline" won't be visible for perhaps 5 years or more, as the baby boomers start to die off in larger numbers.
• 
  117

  2017 Yearbook released

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw this on reddit:.

  https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

  overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

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  shepherdless

  Azerbaijan has JW growth. Seriously?

  
  

  I saw that as well. Azerbaijan has had some growth (from a very low base; it is a Muslim country) and the congregations are large. Because it is a chart of baptisms per congregation, it stands out, although not much is happening there in reality.
  
  
• 
  117

  2017 Yearbook released

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw this on reddit:.

  https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

  overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

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  shepherdless

  Just a quick note on berrygerry's table of growth in Western countries a few pages earlier, the av publishers for Japan should be 2015: 214,523, 2016: 213,818. (ie berrygerry appears to have made a transpose error) Japan actually had a decrease of 705, not an increase of 355.

  That would bring the total increase down from 6563 to 5503.

  Also, if it was me, I wouldn't include Barbados or Bermuda in that list. I would argue it more appropriate to include South Korea instead. (South Korea had a decrease from 99,950 to 99,724.)

  All the same, well done, berrygerry.

  Other points I don't think anyone has noticed yet:

  1.Virtually every country in eastern Europe (including Balkan states, Baltic states, Russia etc) had a decline.

  2. Philippines was one of the few major countries outside of Africa with high growth. That seems to have stopped abruptly.
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  52

  You wake up one morning and see

  by A Believer in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  the un has banned religion.

  what are you're thoughts?.

  also changes to it seem to be on the way.... http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/trump-vows-israel-vote-161224040133216.html.

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  shepherdless

  The UN can't pass laws. The UN can't even enforce its own declarations. Pretty much all the UN can do is run a few aid programs and act as a channel for diplomacy. The UN has about as much power to ban religion as my local tennis club exec committee.

  Don't worry Believer. If the UN "ban religion", I will go to my local tennis club and persuade them to issue a resolution reversing that darstardly ban, thereby averting Armageddon.
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  8

  JW Broadcasting Songs - Instrumental/Karaoke!

  by Intercore in

  1. social
  2. entertainment

  i'm posting instrumental versions of jw broadcasting songs every month!

  listen here: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=pln9i1fsjfwleuylpdikxoj8cg9v2mdg92.

  new song every month!feel free to use it everywhere.

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  shepherdless

  This thread is awesome. I hope Intercore took the humour in good spirit.
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  21

  REVEALED: The number of Bethelites over the years

  by darkspilver in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  in response to this thread.

  i've put forward the argument that i believe that the 'organization' is financially effectively bleeding itself dry - it is actually financially imploding.. i believe that over the last 45 or so years, in particular, it has evolved from a relatively 'lean machine' into what is now a huge unwieldy organization.

  as an organization grows i would expect increased efficiency through by both economies of scale, and advances in technology.. how has the watchtower organization fared?....

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  shepherdless

  Excellent work, Darkspilver.