shepherdless

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Posts by shepherdless

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  63

  Evolution is a Fact #27 - Monkeys, Typewriters, Shakespeare, 747s etc.

  by cofty in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  most creationist arguments can be summarised as "complexity, complexity, complexity - therefore god".

  we have all heard the illustrations about the odds of (insert favourite example) evolving, being less than 10,000 monkeys typing macbeth by pure chance.

  evolution is not like that.

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  shepherdless

  Hooberus, thanks for the link. Now I see where you get your ideas from. You are quoting from an online textbook (must be over 1000 pages) by Professor Mark Ridley. It looks like a fantastic resource. Each chapter finishes with a summary, and a quiz, to see if you have understood.

  You seem to have not understood the issue though. Your quote is from the "A-Z Browser" which is the definition section for all of the various terms used. You should read "Chapter 7: Natural Selection and Random Drift in Molecular Evolution". This is a long chapter dealing with the issue of what proportion of changes in proteins and DNA are due to "natural selection" vs "random drift". Here is a link to the summary page at the end of that chapter:

  https://www.blackwellpublishing.com/ridley/tutorials/Molecular_evolution_and_neutral_theory_Summary.asp

  A more succinct summary would be, to quote Richard Dawkins:

  "It is becoming increasingly clear that most molecular evolution is due to natural drift."

  The important point is that, although the issue has been a matter of considerable debate in the scientific world, it does not in any way undermine the theory of evolution.
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  86

  Susan Rice Sought Names of Trump Associates in Intel?

  by freemindfade in

  1. social
  2. current

  https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-04-03/top-obama-adviser-sought-names-of-trump-associates-in-intel.

  what can we make of this?

  rice is on record being a racist and lying about benghazi, now this?

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  shepherdless

  freemindfade - it is a potentially huge constitutional issue. If it could be proven that she used national security secrets for partisan politics it's a felony and she will go to prison.

  Well, I suppose if the info was being used for partisan politics, that would be serious, although I wonder whether exposing a Russian spy in the Trump team (to take a hypothetical example) would be a legitimate matter to bring to the public. However, judging from the reports, she asked for the names after the election, so there wouldn't have been any point from a partisan political viewpoint, so doesn't seem to be a possible motive. What am I missing?

  Further, if she was aware there may be a potential spy or traitor in the Trump team, as National Security Advisor, wouldn't it be her duty to find out who?

  By the way, I don't watch any US tv news, so I can't comment on any of them, and don't want to be dragged into that discussion either.
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  86

  Susan Rice Sought Names of Trump Associates in Intel?

  by freemindfade in

  1. social
  2. current

  https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-04-03/top-obama-adviser-sought-names-of-trump-associates-in-intel.

  what can we make of this?

  rice is on record being a racist and lying about benghazi, now this?

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  shepherdless

  Can someone please explain the relevance? (I am not a US citizen, and I don't follow all the news there.)

  As far as I can make out:

  1. Susan Rice was the "National Security Adviser".
  2. She receives "raw intelligence reports" (apparently "dozens", according to the linked article) of conversations between one or more foreign governments and one or more US individuals, whose name is/are redacted from the reports.
  3. The US individuals(s) were not the target of the electronic eavesdropping; the foreign government(s) was/were.
  4. She requests the name(s) of the US individuals(s). (Reading between the lines, the US individuals(s) is/are members of the Trump team.)
  5. Her request happened after the election but before the inauguration. However, it related to earlier eavesdropping, going back to before Trump was the formal Republican nominee.

  What has Susan Rice done wrong? It seems to me she has done exactly what a National Security Advisor should do, in this instance.

  I am just asking. I haven't commented on other Trump threads, and I don't want to be part of any broader debate.
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  9

  Alternative Uses of Kingdom Halls: Number 420

  by darkspilver in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  in merthyr tydfil.

  wales.

  uk.

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  shepherdless

  So a place where vegetables were lined up under a spotlight and drip fed, was turned into a place to grow cannabis.

  That stuff probably would do as much damage to your mind as what was previously going on in that KH.
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  63

  Evolution is a Fact #27 - Monkeys, Typewriters, Shakespeare, 747s etc.

  by cofty in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  most creationist arguments can be summarised as "complexity, complexity, complexity - therefore god".

  we have all heard the illustrations about the odds of (insert favourite example) evolving, being less than 10,000 monkeys typing macbeth by pure chance.

  evolution is not like that.

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• 

  shepherdless

  I simpy explained how to have perfect selection in one generation, you had to pay the price of the elimination of the other 9,999 in that same generation (destroying your population) for the evolutionary scenario to work. Your example tried to have the benefit of perfect selection, without the price. There is a cost to selective replacement that must must be paid. In this case the cost in the real world would indeed be the lives of the other 9,999. I was simply showing that an evolutionists own "rosy example scenario" when adjusted for reality runs into trouble.

  What? One mutant monkey wiped out the rest?

  However, when compared with the evolutionists "human evolution" timescale (5 million years since common ancestor with chimps) a problem developes, since humans have a slow generation time. In fact with a 20 year generation time the standard model of "evolution" allows only 833 beneficial mutations to have accumulated.
  5 million years divided by 20 = 250,000 generations
  250,000 divided by 300 (standard model) = only 833 beneficial mutations. (most of which are a single nucleotide)
  And actually the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY of beneficial mutations are ELIMINATED early on by genetic drift. Most evolutionists are not generally aware of this.

  Couldn't multiple beneficial mutations be occurring at the same time?
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  10

  Yet another kingdom hall being sold off

  by pepperheart in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  hi acording to a property website called rightmove a kingdom hall in dawlish devon is being sold off.. another poster has told us that in liverpool two more kingdom halls are being sold off, so this has been a good week .

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  shepherdless

  I love these KH sell-off stories.

  As Stan points out, it takes years to save for a Kingdom Hall. Given the current restrictions on how much an individual congregation can hold, and given the continual siphoning off of moneys to unknown overseas destinations (as shown in "Britain" branch and the Australian branch published financial statements) I think there will be extremely few new Kindom Halls built, at least in Western countries, in the future.

  Once they are sold, they are gone for good.

  For a lot of religions, financial problems in the centre would have much impact on the branches. If all the Islamic universities in Mecca went broke, or the Church of England in U.K., or even the Vatican, most of their respective adherents would continue as before. Their places of worship are generally locally owned, and the clergy class is usually autonomous and locally supported. However, with Watchtower effectively owning the Kingdom Halls and controlling literature and broadcasting, I wonder how the average JW would cope, if the Borg went under.

  In the short term, selling less essential KH's may make financial sense, but long term, I think by sellling off Kingdom Halls and taking the money, Watchtower is unwittingly slowly eradicating itself, in a way that is hard to reverse.
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  19

  Russian BOE - congregations told to stop using the New World Translation

  by OrphanCrow in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  it appears like the wt's bible is no longer to be used in russia.

  king james version only.

  from this forum: .

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  shepherdless

  Yes, I think you are right, Anders. Darn.
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  19

  Russian BOE - congregations told to stop using the New World Translation

  by OrphanCrow in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  it appears like the wt's bible is no longer to be used in russia.

  king james version only.

  from this forum: .

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  shepherdless

  Excellent! JW's in Russia are going to see a genuine translation of the Greek Scriptures. Perhaps that will cause a few to ask questions about the differences and do a little research, outside of the Watchtower propaganda machine.

  According to Wikipedia, the Old Testament ("Hebrew Scriptures") part of the Synodal Bible is translated from the Masoretic Text. That is a bit of a surprise and a shame, because I thought orthodox Christians tended to follow the Septuagint, which could have further undermined Watchtower theology in the eyes of a very academic JW.
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  17

  Proposed Apostate takeover campaign

  by zound in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  fictional apostate takeover campaign.

  stage #1.. what if in a town that had a particularly large amount of apostates and ex-jw's, over a period of a few months, they started going to a small congregation.

  either pretending they were bible studies or just returning jw's, they got good standing in the congregation, priveleges etc.

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  shepherdless

  A three year old thread brought back to life by a troll.

  Interesting idea from the OP, but my my suggested "Stage 2" would be just to sell the hall, distribute the money to the congregation and move on.
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  48

  Aren't you a bit amazed that the WTS/JWS is still around ?

  by Finkelstein in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  i know i am, to me its a bit of a peculiar anomaly that the wts is still around and functioning in reflection of its decades and now complete century that the wts has been bullshitting to people .

  organizations like the church of god have shrunk dramatically from its heyday of the 1980's, this too was another organization that spread and grew by publishing its own magazine proclaiming a armageddon soon doctrine and its main publication was called " the truth " .

  i'm guessing some of this has to do with the fact that people who get lured into this cult aren't aware of its past, its doctrines, the people who started it and so forth.

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  shepherdless

  To some extent, I am surprised Christianity in general, is still around. If humans were purely logical, there would have been a dramatic fall-off in belief, once the theory of evolution was widely known, and the discovery of DNA should have been the death-knell.

  I think what happens is that the majority of people do not change their religious beliefs over their lifetime, and only a percentage of the next generation do. On another thread, SBF referred me to a book, where the author argued that the this generational drop-out percentage in the U.K. was about 50% since WW2.

  Why have many of the more fundamentalist Christians (eg JWs) held on better than the mainstream religions? Probably because their devotees are more sheltered from outside influences, reducing the generational drop-out percentage. Where I grew up, the mainstream Protestants have gone from being dominant to virtually disappearing. The Catholics have held on for a few more decades (but it is clear they are going the same way). I think the reason for the difference is that Catholics have their own schools to shelter their kids from outside ideas, and it slows the process.

  Similarly, I think it is impossible to shelter even Borg kids from the outside world in this day and age, and I think Watchtower and other fundamentalist groups will suffer the same generational drop-out, from now on. It is a shame it is such a slow process, and too late for many we know.