Posts by shepherdless

13

Aust Census: JW's and Divorce Rates

by shepherdless in

this post is actually in answer to a question i got from jwfacts.

i think the issue was also raised on a recent thread.. first, some data from the 2011 and 2016 censuses:.

(a) 1,751,733 (7.5% of population) reported being in a de-facto couple on census night, but .

shepherdless

Thanks all for comments. I will try to briefly deal with a few of them:

Interesting the increase in the percentage divorced from 5.86% to 6.47% in just 5 years.

It could be connected to the median age going up in those 5 years. It is surprising, though.

A relevant question is, "What percentage of divorced JWs were divorced BEFORE they became Witnesses?"

That is a good question. I have no easy way of separating that out. However, "divorced" means divorced and not in a new relationship on census night, which should limit such numbers. Also, you could ask the same question of any of the other religions, including SDA and Mormons who appear to be having more recruitment success.

And it could be that many JWs divorce non-JW partners.

Yes that would be a significant proportion. However, I think JW's divorcing non-JW's is an appropriate inclusion and I wouldn't separate them out if I could.

Also..... What about those that have remarried?

They are counted as "married", as pointed out by Darkspilver. Yes, the number of people who have ever divorced would be way higher. As I said above, "Divorced" means divorced and not in a new relationship on census night.

* * *

These good comments show the limitations of the use of the data from the census, when trying to compare divorce statistics between different religions. However, the limitations broadly apply to each of the religions listed, not just JW. If you accept the data for what it is, I think it is still valid to conclude that (to repeat myself above) divorce and separation rates for JW's are pretty typical of what you would find in "Christendom".

13

Aust Census: JW's and Divorce Rates

by shepherdless in

this post is actually in answer to a question i got from jwfacts.

i think the issue was also raised on a recent thread.. first, some data from the 2011 and 2016 censuses:.

(a) 1,751,733 (7.5% of population) reported being in a de-facto couple on census night, but .

shepherdless

Hi Steve,

i use excel as well, but I use the snipping tool to create a jpg image. I only upload the jpg image.

i will say a bit more when I get the chance.

13

Aust Census: JW's and Divorce Rates

by shepherdless in

this post is actually in answer to a question i got from jwfacts.

i think the issue was also raised on a recent thread.. first, some data from the 2011 and 2016 censuses:.

(a) 1,751,733 (7.5% of population) reported being in a de-facto couple on census night, but .

shepherdless

This post is actually in answer to a question I got from jwfacts. I think the issue was also raised on a recent thread.

First, some data from the 2011 and 2016 censuses:

Basically, that data shows that compared to the overall population, JW's are a little less likely to be divorced, but they are quickly catching up with the rest of the population in this regard. The data shows that they are a little more likely to be separated. The higher rate of being widowed is almost certainly because as a group they are significantly older than the population.

The divorce rates of JW's compared to selected other religions can be summarized in the following table:

I included Anglican to be fair. The Anglicans in Australia are predominantly old, and historically had a more relaxed attitude to divorce than other religions. JW's fare worse than all the other religions shown. Again to be fair, apart from the Anglicans, JW's are typically older than members of those other religions, and that has an effect. I have a way of cancelling that effect out, but I would probably confuse everyone with my methodology. I included numbers for Hindu and Islam, but those numbers are partially a reflection of Aust immigration rules, and so are not a fair comparison.

The "take home message" is that divorce and separation rates for JW's are pretty typical of what you would find in "Christendom".

De facto marriages are far fewer amongst JW's. I won't put up the charts but the numbers in brief are that:

(a) 1,751,733 (7.5% of population) reported being in a de-facto couple on census night, but

(b) only 1,323 (1.6% of JW's) reported being JW's in a de-facto couple.

Interestingly, while for the general population, 95% of those in a de-facto couple spent census night in the same house as their partner, only 79% of JW's in a de-facto couple spent census night in the same house.

For the general population, 5.7% of those de-facto couples were same sex couples. For those claiming to be JW's 3.8% of those de-facto couples were same sex couples. To put it another way, 18 males and 20 females:

(a) wrote on their census form that they were Jehovahs Witnesses (there is no separate box to tick accidentally); and

(b) reported that they were spending census night with someone of the same sex as a de-facto couple.

11

Isis and failed prophecy

by snare&racket in

jw
friends

hi everybody, hope you are all well!

i read this today and thought of the jw's and you guys.. it's an article from today's paper about isis and a recent victory over the town of dabiq.

isis have long claimed that this will be the city where good will face evil i.e islam v christianity/western powers.

shepherdless

In answer to LUHE's question, Dabiq is north of Aleppo not far from the Turkish border. The "Sunni militants" in that area are, as I understand it, Turkish proxys trying to prevent 2 Kurdish regions linking up. It would be more accurate to describe them as "foreign backed militants who happen to be predominantly Sunni". Much of the actual fighting to remove ISIS from that region was done by Kurds (who are also Sunni).

ISIS lost Dabiq months ago, by the way. But yes, it's loss would mean that ISIS can't be the caliphate that was prophesied.

18

Forcing a meaning?

by CitizenofEarth in

i was looking for the word that jwfacts.com used for "forcing a meaning" into ex.

a scripture.

fx.

shepherdless

Vanderhoven, that sounds like an excellent approach in the right setting. I think your reasoning is very sound and it would be very convincing to anyone even partially open-minded.

I am in a different setting, where the only theological discussion I would engage in, would be my wife and her relatives. If I were to try your approach, I would not be able to get more than the first few words into that dialogue before being shut down and accused of something.

I have to take a more subtle approach. For example, I have been able to introduce the concept of "confirmation bias" to my wife as the explanation for what is happening in US politics. We have similar views on US politics and it was easy. She even recently sent me a link to a news article that made controversial climate change assertions, with a joke about it being our "daily dose of confirmation bias". Yay! She got the point. We can look at what other areas in our life we might observe confirmation bias, later.

I think if I was to raise the word "eisegesis" at home in a biblical context, I would be instantly deafened and blinded by alarm bells and flashing red lights. Hence I am trying to think of non-biblical examples such as Nostradamus. The Oracle of Delphi might be another good example. I can't think of any others at the moment.

10

Kingdom Ministry Detailed Service Reports vs Field Service Highlights.

by ToesUp in

why did the watchtower eliminate the detailed service report (last report dec. 2008) and replace it in jan. 2009 with the field service highlights?

(sorry about the formatting).. *** km 12/08 p. 2 august service report *** (source wt library, kingdom ministry 2008 , 2009).

august service report.

shepherdless

A simple and easy method is to open the excel spreadsheet and use the "Snipping Tool". That creates a jpg image of whatever extract you want, which can easily be uploaded to this site.

The snipping tool is often on your task bar at the bottom of your screen. If you can't see it there, go to start menu, then programs, then accessories, and you should see it.

18

Forcing a meaning?

by CitizenofEarth in

i was looking for the word that jwfacts.com used for "forcing a meaning" into ex.

a scripture.

fx.

shepherdless

Exegesis and eisegesis are words I had never come across before coming to this site. Just so apt.

i reckon that if you want to start introducing the terms to a JW you know, it might be better to talk about something non-biblical, such as how Nostradamus's "predictions" are interpreted in an eisegesis fashion.

30

Comparing Total Numbers Baptized During the 1990s and the Last Ten Years:

by steve2 in

sometimes, comparing raw numbers provides a more clear-cut numerical picture of growth or otherwise than percentages.

below are the numbers for peak publishers (rounded off so that 4,1 represents more than 4,100,000) for each year throughout the 1990s and those for the last ten years.. year: peak* baptisms.

* peak publishers abbreviated - simply to show annual baptisms in relation to peak publishers.. the main point: .

shepherdless

My 2c worth:

The situation may currently be slightly worse for Watchtower than the above baptism figures suggest. Firstly, baptism figures are what might be called a "lag indicator" because the actual baptism is a culmination of a year or two of effort. Hence eg the 2016 figure may be more a reflection of success in 2014 to 2015, than 2016. Secondly, the recent emphasis on child baptism would have brought forward a few baptisms, and that is a once-off.

For worldwide decline, I think we would see baptism numbers below 200,000, which may be 5 years or so away; maybe longer. Again, as it is a lag indicator, I think the publisher numbers would be already dropping by the time we see that.

sbf has previously argued that the number of congregations is the best indicator of growth. I agree, and over the last 5 years the no of congs grew 9.2%, whereas av pubs increased 10%. The Borg is still growing, but not in Western countries. I also think that Watchtower has bigger problems on the financial side, but that is another story.

22

cleveland ohio convention results

by nowwhat? in

of 3 in cleveland: avg.

attendance 7500 baptised 27 a robust growth of 0.38%!

not my convention so no details..

shepherdless

Firstly, I love reading these results. I hope people keep posting them.

I have been reading these baptism percentages for some time. I think the highest I saw was one in Germany where a ratio of about 1% were baptised. From memory, there were some people from other countries getting baptised there, and that was some time ago. Generally it has been in the range 0.5% to 0.25% for a while, with most of the conventions in USA or U.K.

However, in the last Yearbook:

USA had a baptism rate of 2.4% against av publishers (around 2 per cong)

"Britain" had a baptism rate of 1.7% against av publishers (around 1.4 per cong).

I was wondering why such a difference. I think there is around 3 times a year where people get baptised in numbers. Is that right? Also, do a lot of non-publishers attend regional conventions? The only other explanation I can think of is that where a lot get baptised at a convention, perhaps people tend not to report it here. I am not one who thinks the numbers are falsified. Anyone have any other possible explanations?

26

Judicial meeting questions.

by Fader812 in

why do elders ask such perverted questions during judicial meetings?

kinda creeped me out, actually creeped me out a lot.

.

shepherdless

On an old thread here, someone (I think it was Billy the Ex-Bethelite) said he brought along some barbie and ken dolls to his JC meeting. He knew what kind of questions were coming.