shepherdless

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Posts by shepherdless

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  31

  10 Graphs that show that the Watchtower is in trouble in Mexico

  by ILoveTTATT2 in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  mexico is by far the country where the witnesses have had the most success in the entire world.

  almost any statistic except the total amount of witnesses shows that mexico is where the witnesses have had the wildest success in the world.proportional to population, the witnesses in mexico are double, or nearly triple, what they are in the us or brazil.but there is "trouble in paradise".

  if mexico falls, pretty much the whole watchtower falls.which is why it is so important to have jwfacts translated to spanish.i made an analysis and things are looking bad in mexico... if trends continue, mexico will become just like the 1st-world countries.here is the first graph:maximum publisher % increase:.

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  shepherdless

  Firstly, let me applaud ILoveTTAT for his/her work, including translating jwfacts. It is extremely important work.

  One comment and two questions:

  If Mexico falls, pretty much the whole Watchtower falls.

  Maybe in membership numbers, that is sort of true. However, Watchtower is essentially a business, and that means wealthy USA with its 1.2 million is by far the most important "Land". That being said, the borg is proportionaly more of a blight on the people of Mexico than virtually any country in the world.

  First question: I was wondering whether Mexico becoming any less overwhelmingly Catholic, which may partially explain the flattening growth. My reason for asking is that I have noticed that the borg's success in any particular country seems to be directly proportional to how "Christian" a country is. Countries where there is a high proportion of the polulation professing Christianity seem to have the most JWs. Countries where the proportion of Christians are dropping seem to have had lower JW growth.

  Second question: Does anyone know if JWs in Mexico are getting older on average (as statistical data shows they are in Aust and USA)? My reason for asking is that, after sifting a lot of data elsewhere (see my own threads), that gradually flattening growth is likely to coincide, even caused by, a membership that is ageing, which in turn is a reliable predictor of future growth/decline. Average age in a religion where many people are joining and leaving is not that important, but JWism is now a religion where there are few converts, and so the issue is very important. If the average age of JWs is increasing, or significantly above the population, it amounts to "locked-in" future decline.

  
  

  But thanks again, ILoveTTATT. Please keep up the good fight.

  
  
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  9

  Not a lot of young people

  by Akid48 in

  1. jw
  2. experiences

  i have look around and im counting 5-18 for young aka kids or teens we only have 4 includeing me that can think on there own and are teens.the only other kids there are 3 5 or to young to even think that there mom or dad are wrong on any thing.. just wanting to know if any if any one see this at a kingdom hall..

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  shepherdless

  I never attend, but my son (who no longer attends) said much the same thing. Some very young kids, a few young teenagers, and then virtually nobody between his age and his mother.

  On another thread, I set out a table using Australian census data, of JWs in 5 year age groups. There is an astonishing drop off in young people over the last decade. It must be wierd to be a young person attending a Kingdom Hall in Australia, at least, these days.

  Interestingly, when extracting census data, I noticed that Seventh Day Adventists in Aust had a lot more kids, despite being a much smaller religion.
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  28

  Facial hair and Witnesses

  by Jules Saturn in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  i never understood why the society was against beards or goatees but completely okay with mustaches.

  what's the difference?

  facial hair is facial hair, whether it's above your lip or around your cheeks or under your chin.

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  shepherdless

  Sorry to point out the obvious, but market research from eons back has shown that door to door salesmen have more success if they don't have beards. The whole Watchtower dress code is about what market research shows is (or was) most successful in door to door marketing.
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  27

  ANGOLA - JW Regional Convention target of attack.

  by EdenOne in

  1. jw
  2. experiences

  according to news sources in luanda, angola (read it here, although it's in portuguese language), a regional convention of the jw's taking place this weekend at the outskirts of capital luanda was targeted yesterday, friday, by what may be described as a 'terrorist attack'.. more than 400 attendees (mostly female) passed out in rapid succession in the vicinity of a toilet at the convention place.

  reportedly, toxic gas devices were planted there by 3 young members of unita, the main political party that opposed mpla, the dominant regime party in angola since its independence in 1975.

  43 people were rushed to the hospital and a few remain there, under medical surveillance.

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  shepherdless

  No worries, darkspilver. I wasn't really offended. I actually don't know my wife read, b.t.w.
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  27

  ANGOLA - JW Regional Convention target of attack.

  by EdenOne in

  1. jw
  2. experiences

  according to news sources in luanda, angola (read it here, although it's in portuguese language), a regional convention of the jw's taking place this weekend at the outskirts of capital luanda was targeted yesterday, friday, by what may be described as a 'terrorist attack'.. more than 400 attendees (mostly female) passed out in rapid succession in the vicinity of a toilet at the convention place.

  reportedly, toxic gas devices were planted there by 3 young members of unita, the main political party that opposed mpla, the dominant regime party in angola since its independence in 1975.

  43 people were rushed to the hospital and a few remain there, under medical surveillance.

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  shepherdless

  Darkspilver, I don't know if that is what she read. However, before we try, convict and execute my wife of being a heartless individual, on reflection I actually coloured her interpretation of it as she explained it, and she agreed and went along with my cynical interpretation. I am the heartless one.

  I point out that it is easy to interpret the real story as:

  • a stink eminated from the toilets (perhaps ammonia or H2S);
  • a few people felt faint, triggering a group hysteria where a number of people collapsed in sympathy saying they were unwell, feeling faint, being poisoned etc;
  • 3 randoms in the crowd were captured and accused of being responsible;
  • the 405 "unconscious" people went to hospital and were told to calm down and sent home.

  In support of this version of events, what sort of gas could render 405 people in an open air environment unconscious, without killing anybody, and yet wear off so quickly that a hospital would feel comfortable sending them home? I am sure an anethestist could confirm that that is impossible. Also, any group capable of pulling that off is going to be far too clever to be caught in the vicinity.

  Also, getting 405 unconscious people to hospitals is a major logistical exercise, as is treating them. If the story was true, that part of the story would have been significant, with stories of ambulances and doctors being overwhelmed, etc.

  Also, in such circumstances, do you really think they would allow the convention to continue the next day?

  The only part of the story that may realistically be true is that the arrested 3 did actually release a smelly gas.
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  114

  Breaking News - NK Missile Overflies Japan

  by cofty in

  1. social
  2. current

  story breaking on reuters here.... kim jong-un seems determined to start a war.

  nk is a national cult of personality.

  hating the rest of the world is the first tenet of faith..

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  shepherdless

  Waiting for China to magically change 40 years of foreign policy is a hare-brained Obama idea.

  I don't know if that is in response to my comment, but who said anything about "waiting"? To get China to act, the international community might need to apply some firm persuasion on the issue, probably through the threat of international trade restrictions or sanctions on China itself, or some other such means. Also, China is probably not comfortable with missiles that close to cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, in any event.

  
  

  The US can either act or not. Not acting means they will be shooting ICBMs across the US continent within a decade.

  True, but what action are you proposing? A military action? Are you aware Seoul is well within NK artillery range?
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  114

  Breaking News - NK Missile Overflies Japan

  by cofty in

  1. social
  2. current

  story breaking on reuters here.... kim jong-un seems determined to start a war.

  nk is a national cult of personality.

  hating the rest of the world is the first tenet of faith..

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  shepherdless

  Looking back at history, it seems the Clinton administration was very close to doing a deal with North Korea to shut down the missile program. The Bush Junior administration continued the discussions, and it looked like they were progressing. Then within a few months after September 11, Bush was referring to NK as part of the axis of evil and all meaningful discussion ceased.

  Hence in broad terms, I think it is silly to blame either Trump or Obama for the current situation. This is just the culmination of a failure to deal with the situation 15 to 20 years ago.

  At the moment, it seems to me that the only realistic way of dealing with NK is to get China to put a stop to it. China has the power to do so, as almost all export income received by NK is from China, and NK gets all its fuel through China. If, for example, China cut fuel supplies to NK, NK would probably cave in within a month.
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  27

  ANGOLA - JW Regional Convention target of attack.

  by EdenOne in

  1. jw
  2. experiences

  according to news sources in luanda, angola (read it here, although it's in portuguese language), a regional convention of the jw's taking place this weekend at the outskirts of capital luanda was targeted yesterday, friday, by what may be described as a 'terrorist attack'.. more than 400 attendees (mostly female) passed out in rapid succession in the vicinity of a toilet at the convention place.

  reportedly, toxic gas devices were planted there by 3 young members of unita, the main political party that opposed mpla, the dominant regime party in angola since its independence in 1975.

  43 people were rushed to the hospital and a few remain there, under medical surveillance.

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  shepherdless

  My wife said she had seen a notification from the local branch to the effect that nothing serious happened, there may have been a disturbance at the convention, and a couple of people fainted. I didn't see the notification.
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  8

  Miracle Wheat trial transcript

  by VM44 in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  here is the miracle wheat trial transcript..

  miraclewheattrial.pdf

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  shepherdless

  Just in response to Anders's questions:

  There were no lower court rulings. Typically in a common law legal system, such as USA, civil cases where the amount claimed is above a certain level will be heard by a trial division of the Supreme Court. Any appeal will then go to the appellate division of the same Supreme Court (typically 3 judges).

  I recall that Anders lives in a country which has a civil law system, not a common law system. Typically in civil law countries, the equivalent of the Supreme Court only hears appeals.

  Just as a general note to anyone put off by the prospect of reading 400+ pages, there is a citation summary in the last 4 pages. In short, Russell sued the newspaper for defamation, lost at trial, appealed on a point of law, and lost again.
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  36

  What is the watchtower going to do when

  by pepperheart in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  what is the watchtower going to do when the money runs out ??

  ?.

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  shepherdless

  Imagine having a business where your customer just hand you their money, and you don't have to pay tax on it.
  

  How could a religion ever go bust?!

  Yes, you would think that they never could. Theoretically, any preacher could start a religion and impose a 10% tithe, and if that preacher were able to get just 10 adherents, then the preacher would earn an average income, tax free. Must be one of the easiest ways to make money around. And the one thing that every Christian denomination agrees, is that God needs your money.

  But despite it all, religions do sometimes go broke. All that administration, poor management, and too many snouts in the trough. And tax free doesn't help if you are not making a profit.

  Canadian stores have run a similar course to Watchtower.

  Yes the Sears example is a good indication of what is likely to happen. There are differences, but I can't think of an example where a business has sold branches and later survived.

  Ever since I saw the 'bunker' videos I have been waiting for the GB to announce that Armageddon has arrived, to send everyone off to their designated shelters, and then flee the country with their money to whatever off-shore bank account country will have them. Then I expect to see news accounts of bizarre shelter stories.

  A few people have wondered if/when the Gov Body will run off with the money. They don't need to. They have your money already. They are more likely to take the approach Scientology seems to be taking; just let the religion die a slow death and keep milking it, hanging onto a big real estate empire. If all the dubs left, they would still have the money and assets, legally, and there is nothing anyone can do.

  Anyway, that is my 2c worth.