shepherdless

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Posts by shepherdless

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  67

  W5 Investigation

  by Christian Gutierrez in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  hey guys!

  i just want you guys to know that today is a really great day.

  there are so many jehovah's witnesses that saw this documentary and were disgusted by watchtowers policy.

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  shepherdless

  I was watching the documentary from the perspective of how a non JW would view it, and I thought that Katja and you came across extremely well and were unfakeably genuine. Well done! Just came here to say that. No need to reply.
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  110

  If you're expecting a mass exodus anytime soon, FORGET ABOUT IT!

  by nowwhat? in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  i have to make a token appearance at the k.h.

  once a month or so and this week went to a different hall.

  and believe me they are all still totally oblivious to all the negative news about the pedophiles and shunning that have come under scrutiny by the media and other governments.

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  shepherdless

  I will just quickly throw in my 2c worth.

  It is important to differentiate between financial collapse and an exodus of members. The two are very different.

  There is significant evidence that Watchtower is currently under significant financial strain. That does not necessarily mean a financial collapse is imminent. (In fact I would expect to see a few additional things, such as the sale or abandonment of Cheltenham before that). If it did suffer a financial collapse, would that lead to a mass exodus? My guess is that a significant minority might leave, depending on the manner of that financial collapse. You might have a situation where Watchtower goes bankrupt and it has little effect at all.

  Separately, I think there is a massive long term problem for Watchtower in western countries at least, in that they are losing so many young ones. Do you define that as an exodus? I will leave that to others.
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  27

  JW Decline: additional data from Aust 2016 census

  by shepherdless in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  about 9 months ago, i started this thread:.

  https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/6298997348106240/aust-2016-census-observations-jws-getting-older-more-kids-leaving-30-group-arent-returning.

  i have had a little spare time, so i thought i would present some of the data in a more user friendly manner, with some additional detail.. 1. median age.

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  shepherdless

  Thanks steve, that is a reasonable assessment.

  I will throw in my own 2c worth, which is fairly similar.

  It seems to me that the baby boomers were really drawn into this religion in large numbers, and that may be a reflection of the times when they were growing up; wanting to be spiritual, but rejecting mainstream religion. Generation X then followed them in, but not in the same numbers. The majority of Gen X are probably born ins.

  Below Gen X, the numbers have been hit hard. Other people have mentioned (and it is highlighted at jwfacts.com) that baptisms exceed growth in publishers, even taking into account a death rate of 1%. What that simple analysis doesn't take into account is that the ones that were leaving were not evenly distributed by age or sex.

  The internet (or whatever other factor has been involved) has caused a hollowing out at the base of the population tree. In the past, a number of teenagers and young adults left, but a lot of them returned once they started to kids, and the cycle resumed. In more recent times, more teenagers and young adults have left and not returned, and it has been going on for long enough that the number of babies born into the Borg has decreased. The cycle has been broken, for a number of them.

  It will be very interesting to see in 5 years time whether this trend has continued, or even accelerated. I hope the 5 to 9 and 10 to 14 cohorts drop down like they have in the last 5 years. If that happens, well if you think your congregation looks old now, it will look geriatric by then. And then decline will start to take off.

  In the meantime, I think the most effective activism is to alert the twenty something POMIs to TTATT (not to discount other forms of activism). They are probably more open to it, and their role in continuing the cycle is probably underestimated by some.
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  27

  JW Decline: additional data from Aust 2016 census

  by shepherdless in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  about 9 months ago, i started this thread:.

  https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/6298997348106240/aust-2016-census-observations-jws-getting-older-more-kids-leaving-30-group-arent-returning.

  i have had a little spare time, so i thought i would present some of the data in a more user friendly manner, with some additional detail.. 1. median age.

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  shepherdless

  Yes, that is right, Listener. I find the median (not the mode) to be a far better indicator of what is happening, but they both indicate an aging of the religion.

  Cheers stuckinarut and smiddy. It is not quite as much work as it probably looks (I am getting good at it) and I would do it just for my own interest, even if others weren’t interested.
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  27

  JW Decline: additional data from Aust 2016 census

  by shepherdless in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  about 9 months ago, i started this thread:.

  https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/6298997348106240/aust-2016-census-observations-jws-getting-older-more-kids-leaving-30-group-arent-returning.

  i have had a little spare time, so i thought i would present some of the data in a more user friendly manner, with some additional detail.. 1. median age.

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  shepherdless

  In one of the above posts, I tried to write out a new Section 5. Frustratingly, for some reason, what I wrote got truncated. I feel like I am spamming my own post. Here is what I intended:

  5. The "Return to Jehovah" effect is significant
  I have previously described this effect. As shown above, and as you are probably aware, a lot of people leave the Borg between the ages of 15 and 25. It seems to me from the data that a lot of those who leave are POMI, and come back after they start to have kids. This shows up in the data in 2 ways.
  Firstly, the census data shows that the number of kids in the 5 to 9 age bracket increases significantly compared to the 0 to 4 age bracket, of 5 years earlier. You can see this in the JW population trees above. This can partially be explained (but not completely) by immigration.
  Secondly, there is a discrepancy between boys and girls in the 0 to 4 age bracket. Eg, in 2016, 1797 boys and 1640 girls fell into that bracket. The difference between the two is too large to be random. I think it is that POMI mothers are more likely to "return to jehovah" if they have a young boy to bring into the congregation. However, I would be happy to take any other suggestions as to what is happening here.
  If my explanation of the discrepancy is correct, then it follows that the "Return to Jehovahs" make up 10% or more, of the parents of these young kids.
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  15

  Jehovah's Witnesses child sexual abuse cover up gets broadcast across Canadian television.

  by Finkelstein in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  well the shit has finally hit the fan here in chanda for the jws.. an hour long investigative journalist program called w5 went deep into the jws's pedophilia cover up problems that have been on going for decades within the jws religion.. .

  i think its good thing for the public to realize how religions can and will coverup egregious acts which are serious crimes in most countries just to up hold a clean wholesome image around their organizations.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1zlhbk6ihm.

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  shepherdless

  I think in terms of warning the public, it was awesome.

  I have so much respect for all those who participated. I thought Christian and Katja in particular came across really really well.
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  27

  JW Decline: additional data from Aust 2016 census

  by shepherdless in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  about 9 months ago, i started this thread:.

  https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/6298997348106240/aust-2016-census-observations-jws-getting-older-more-kids-leaving-30-group-arent-returning.

  i have had a little spare time, so i thought i would present some of the data in a more user friendly manner, with some additional detail.. 1. median age.

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  shepherdless

  Just comments on other people's posts.

  Data-dog: yes the charts confirm what many have suspected. But it is nice to have that confirmation. Even though this is just for Australia, the trend is probably equally applicable to Western Europe and North America and a few other places. On a previous thread, I mentioned that trends revealed by the Pew Report (2014) for USA seem to mirror the Aust data.

  Steve2: That is quite a decrease. It took a year for the census data to come out in Aust. I will try to give you a hand analyzing the NZ data when released, if you want.

  SBF: Mode in 2006 was a 45 to 49 yo woman. Mode in 2011 was a 50 to 54 yo woman. Mode in 2016 was a 55 to 59 yo woman. I didn't notice that before you mentioned it.

  Yes I don't mention any emigration figure. There is no easy way to extract that. I have worked out a way of getting a fairly accurate estimate, but it is time consuming. I haven't done it as yet, as I don't think it will change the numbers much, and I don't know if many people will understand it, anyway.

  You might be right about the SDA's not being a useful comparison. I will compare the Mormons, when I get the chance. I think there will be too few Baptists, and the Methodists merged with the Presbyterians and another one (can't remember at the moment) decades ago in Aust to form the Uniting Church, which is shrinking dramatically.

  I originally thought about excluding females under 15 from the section 3 chart. I decided to do it the way I did, because it makes the point better (inevitable future JW decline), and is less open to debate.

  LongHairGal: Yes, it will be interesting to see how many in the 5 to 9, and 10 to 14 cohorts remain. As I said earlier, their parents filled in the census form, not them.
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  27

  JW Decline: additional data from Aust 2016 census

  by shepherdless in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  about 9 months ago, i started this thread:.

  https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/6298997348106240/aust-2016-census-observations-jws-getting-older-more-kids-leaving-30-group-arent-returning.

  i have had a little spare time, so i thought i would present some of the data in a more user friendly manner, with some additional detail.. 1. median age.

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  shepherdless

  I have corrected the data for the error pointed out by SBF. It has 2 effects. Firstly, the population trees lean over to the female side more (ie it actually makes it look worse for Watchtower). Secondly, I have to revise my section 5.

  Charts

  Here are the population trees for Watchtower, in the order 2006, 2011, and 2016:

  

  

  

  By the way, when considering the bulge in the 5 to 9 bracket, and the 10 to 14 bracket, remember this is a parent filling in a census form on behalf of a kid.

  The other population trees would change shape slightly as well, but to a much lesser extent. I suspect that not many people are that interested in them, so I will leave that for the moment.

  The blue chart in Section 3 remains the same.

  Section 5

  I can't edit my original post, but if I could, my section 5 would read as follows:

  5. The "Return to Jehovah" effect is significant
  I have previously described this effect. As shown above, and as you are probably aware, a lot of people leave the Borg between the ages of 15 and 25. It seems to me from the data that a lot of those who leave are POMI, and come back after they start to have kids. This shows up in the data in 2 ways.
• 
  27

  JW Decline: additional data from Aust 2016 census

  by shepherdless in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  about 9 months ago, i started this thread:.

  https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/6298997348106240/aust-2016-census-observations-jws-getting-older-more-kids-leaving-30-group-arent-returning.

  i have had a little spare time, so i thought i would present some of the data in a more user friendly manner, with some additional detail.. 1. median age.

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  shepherdless

  SBF is correct. There is an issue with the boy girl ratio. I relied on the Aust govt computer to calculate percentages, and there are 3 ways to do it.

  The numbers in to 0 to 4 age group (2016) for JW boys is 1797, and 1640 for JW girls. Still a 5% discrepancy, and beyond statistical randomness, but it all makes more sense now.

  I am actually impressed SBF picked up the point.

  I have some urgent work I need to do, but I will try to get back to this in more detail a little later, with a more comprehensive response.
• 
  27

  JW Decline: additional data from Aust 2016 census

  by shepherdless in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  about 9 months ago, i started this thread:.

  https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/6298997348106240/aust-2016-census-observations-jws-getting-older-more-kids-leaving-30-group-arent-returning.

  i have had a little spare time, so i thought i would present some of the data in a more user friendly manner, with some additional detail.. 1. median age.

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  shepherdless

  Hi Steve, no the “self-reported” number is a decrease, from 85,635 in 2011 to 82,512 in 2016.