Thanks steve, that is a reasonable assessment.
I will throw in my own 2c worth, which is fairly similar.
It seems to me that the baby boomers were really drawn into this religion in large numbers, and that may be a reflection of the times when they were growing up; wanting to be spiritual, but rejecting mainstream religion. Generation X then followed them in, but not in the same numbers. The majority of Gen X are probably born ins.
Below Gen X, the numbers have been hit hard. Other people have mentioned (and it is highlighted at jwfacts.com) that baptisms exceed growth in publishers, even taking into account a death rate of 1%. What that simple analysis doesn't take into account is that the ones that were leaving were not evenly distributed by age or sex.
The internet (or whatever other factor has been involved) has caused a hollowing out at the base of the population tree. In the past, a number of teenagers and young adults left, but a lot of them returned once they started to kids, and the cycle resumed. In more recent times, more teenagers and young adults have left and not returned, and it has been going on for long enough that the number of babies born into the Borg has decreased. The cycle has been broken, for a number of them.
It will be very interesting to see in 5 years time whether this trend has continued, or even accelerated. I hope the 5 to 9 and 10 to 14 cohorts drop down like they have in the last 5 years. If that happens, well if you think your congregation looks old now, it will look geriatric by then. And then decline will start to take off.
In the meantime, I think the most effective activism is to alert the twenty something POMIs to TTATT (not to discount other forms of activism). They are probably more open to it, and their role in continuing the cycle is probably underestimated by some.
