For me, it basically comes down to probability.
Is it more probable that there is a God out there who cares enough about humanity to specially create us, but not to shield us from harm in our infancy? (Both as a species and as individuals) Or is it more likely that we are the rare result of the natural forces of the Universe?
Is it likely that the supernatural events recorded in the Bible, which have no confirmed modern events to parallel them, actually happened? Or is it more likely that they are simply another set of exaggerated stories that might be based very loosely on real events?
My belief in the supernatural, and by extension God is set at neutral and leans towards skeptical disbelief until such a time as I am given clear and objective evidence to the contrary. The fact that the state of Universe and humanity doesn't reflect what I would logically expect from a loving, all-knowing, and all-powerful creator merely reinforces that position, it is not the entire basis for it.