Posts by TheScientist

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

TheScientist

Does anyone actually think what is happening in the Org indicates strength??

Exact. We even don't need numbers to see the disaster coming to it, it's just interpret the WT actions. The boat is sinking and they are trying to remove the water with a mug (no time report, allow beards, etc). Maybe more big changes like relaxation of commemorative dates, blood and finally disfellowshipping, could keep some young people and attract new people.. Maybe... They have no alternative but to try. 2024/25 will be years of big changes...

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

TheScientist

As I said, the end of WT won't be in a few years but some decades (if the numbers keep as are). Today JW is not in a steep decline like Protestant churches BUT as current publishers die in the next decades, you will see a steep decline because the 1x1 replacement rate is not happening. There will be more JW dying than new JW entering the sect, making the number of publishers keep pace with the mortality rate! Here's your steep curve...

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

TheScientist

I have to say it again, the age demographic pattern of the Society is the only proof that anyone needs, to see how critical their situation is. And quite frankly ... any organization (or country) that does not have a growth rate of over 2.5%

You got the point! The situation is critical. And WT knows that (they are good in numbers). They will announce several new lights in a short time to stop the bleeding, but without the guarantee of good results. But there is no alternative.

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

TheScientist

This chart shows the number of batized (red) x publishers (blue) from 2001 to 2022:

https://uploaddeimagens.com.br/images/004/479/758/original/Grafico3.jpg?1684960272

If the current JWs die, there are no more newer JWs to replace them in 1x1 rate. And WT knows that. Because this, WT is leaving the sect lighter. They need at least a 1x1 replacement rate or the sect will end in some decades.

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

TheScientist

There’s a difference between lower baptism numbers (true) and decline in membership (not happened yet).

As said by others, there are several factors that create vagueness about who is a Jehovah's Witness or not. So for me, I focus on the number of baptized people, where, according to anecdotes, the majority are children of Jehovah's Witness parents. I have already made a graph, comparing the baptism curve with the curve of the publishers and it is clear that the number of baptisms does not follow the publishers, suggesting a strong shrinkage. But you don't even need numbers. You can see that when Jehovah's Witnesses are preaching, no one cares about them, no one stops to listen to them. And I'm saying in Latin America. In the US and the EU, things could be worse. Also, when I mean decline, I mean the number of empty seats in KH. In my city, KH have been sold for a long time and congregations are reagrouped as single one. So if JWs aren't in decline, I don't know what name could be used.

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

TheScientist

They have to begin declining before they can continue declining. Unlike the vast majority of churches JWs are holding their own in western countries and continuing to grow in many others. They suffered one year of decline during the pandemic, under 1%, and quickly recovered.

I'm wondering where you got those numbers from. In the JW World Report's numbers, the number of baptisms is stagnating year after year. And we are talking about official numbers. Things could be worse than they let on. Just look at the number of empty meetings and congregations being merged into one. I agree that in poorer countries, the work has not seen this decline. But overall, the situation is depressing. Otherwise they wouldn't be making so many desperate changes.

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

TheScientist

It might be in their interests to change, but that doesn’t mean they’ll do it. People can act against their interests all the time, especially when religious belief is in the mix.

Two scenarios then:

1. They don't change: the numbers continue to decline as there is no new people entering the sect, young people (which parents force them to be JW) and some adults continue leaving the sect. The old and mid-age JW die and the sect dies together with them.

2. They change: some people enter the sect though JW friends and less negative opinion of the society, young people choose to stay in it because it's "cool", mid and old-age can talk to their relative ones which are exJW.

In any case, either the sect is ended (which is good) or the sect become more inofensive (which is good too).

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

TheScientist

Ease the pressure and you might keep a lot of those people from leavin

That's the point! Only after that, they relax the disfellowship rules converting it to a rebuke like other churchs do (not officiallly having a JC, not allowing participation in teocratic activities or some social meetings, etc, but keeping to talk to the reprimanded). The dissidency argumentation will have little force. As I said, it will be the same that try convince a Catholic friend or relative leave her church argumenting about the Catholic Church crimes, where she is feeling well there. The ignorance will be a bliss.

This scene from Matrix movie clarify this:

https://youtu.be/JODWCwycNmg?si=57bptU3Mr3A4E9E0

In the end, by relaxing disfellowship, they will free themselves from governments persecution and clean up (a little) their negative image in society.

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

TheScientist

I’m really starting to wonder just how far they’ll be willing to go to keep their tax-exemption...

It is quite possible for them to take unimaginable directions. It is no wonder that they have already given up doctrines (at least locally, as in the case of blood in Bulgaria) in exchange for not losing their status as a religion. And look, the Bulgarian case is decades old.

It was one of my first topics here:

https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/229475/official-link-agreement-between-watchtower-bulgaria

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

TheScientist

Yes. The legal issue and how lawsuits drain WR's coffers was one of the factors I mentioned. In Norway they are prohibited from mentioning from the stand the name of someone who has been disfellowshipped due to data protection law with the risk of losing their religious status (and having to pay taxes). These same data protection laws are being adopted in the whole Europe, and even Latin America and soon, I hope that Norway's measure prohibiting menionate names will be adopted in UE and LA countries. This and other factors make GB think about to what extent the disassociation is being effective so as not to lose members since the internet is already doing this. And leaving the sect lighter, the less sense it will make to maintain disassociation.