Posts by TheScientist

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

TheScientist

But sorry, I do think it is faintly ridiculous to be talking about Watchtower battling for “survival” at this point, when compared with most other churches in western countries they are in rude health to put it mildly.

The first thing you have to keep in mind is that the overwhelming majority of those attending a Catholic, Baptist, Lutheran, etc. churches are generally there because they are believers in that religions. This is not the same as what happens with JWs. The practice of disfellowship creates camouflaged dissent (PIMOs), which is what I already said in my initial post. Then you see the numbers of WT publishers and judge them all as JW, but no, not everyone there is JW (some would like being out from these numbers). DF creates this distortion. There is a lot of fake reports! And now with the new light on not reporting time, the number of publishers tends to increase even more, it's just mark an X in that field. I have no idea about the percentage of PIMOs, no one does. But I believe that if there were no shunning, these numbers would be smaller.

This weekend my uncle, who is a PIMO, sent me a video of his assembly (in Brazil): more than half of the seats were empty, people had to be spread out to hide their shame. Now imagine the same congress without the PIMOs: perhaps the audience would not be so different from what we see at one of such churches.

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

TheScientist

If these policies do not end or the rules are relaxed, so many "ifs" can be inserted that in practice they will have no effect.

Let's see, the issue of blood had so many "ifs" that today like fractions, if someone takes blood, they are no longer summarily disfellowshipped, etc.

In the matter of disfellowship, there are so many "ifs" such as if the person is at risk of committing suicide, if the person has been inactive for a few years, if the person threatens to sue, etc. In any "if" the JC is suspended. The two-witness policy itself can be reversed, not being used for pedophilia and being used to avoid disfelloship for other reasons. Perhaps there is no need for a formal announcement from the GB on the issue of DF flexibility, it is enough more policies to be silently implemented in the book of elders. And then just a few studies of The Watchtower, explaining the DF texts better, explaining the context and leaving it up to the congregation not to invite the person to theocratic activities as a form of censorship (which is more or less what the texts they use say) , but not avoiding to greet or force someone to cut family ties.

70

A BEARD PREDICTION FOR 2024

by AndersonsInfo in

jw
friends

fyi, i posted this prediction on my facebook page last night and it has received 224 likes and there have been 83 comments made.

many of the comments are hilarious.. .

a beard prediction for 2024:.

TheScientist

I was so stupid in thinking they were going to offer me assistance for what I was going through. Boy, I was dumb!

You were not dumb! You just thought what a normal people with empathy would do for people on your condition. I'm so sorry you had to go through this situation.

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

TheScientist

To stop the shunning would mean getting sued out of existence. Just not an economically viable option.

???

Keep shunning also is not an economically viable option.

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

TheScientist

Does anyone actually think what is happening in the Org indicates strength??

Exact. We even don't need numbers to see the disaster coming to it, it's just interpret the WT actions. The boat is sinking and they are trying to remove the water with a mug (no time report, allow beards, etc). Maybe more big changes like relaxation of commemorative dates, blood and finally disfellowshipping, could keep some young people and attract new people.. Maybe... They have no alternative but to try. 2024/25 will be years of big changes...

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

TheScientist

As I said, the end of WT won't be in a few years but some decades (if the numbers keep as are). Today JW is not in a steep decline like Protestant churches BUT as current publishers die in the next decades, you will see a steep decline because the 1x1 replacement rate is not happening. There will be more JW dying than new JW entering the sect, making the number of publishers keep pace with the mortality rate! Here's your steep curve...

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

TheScientist

I have to say it again, the age demographic pattern of the Society is the only proof that anyone needs, to see how critical their situation is. And quite frankly ... any organization (or country) that does not have a growth rate of over 2.5%

You got the point! The situation is critical. And WT knows that (they are good in numbers). They will announce several new lights in a short time to stop the bleeding, but without the guarantee of good results. But there is no alternative.

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

TheScientist

This chart shows the number of batized (red) x publishers (blue) from 2001 to 2022:

https://uploaddeimagens.com.br/images/004/479/758/original/Grafico3.jpg?1684960272

If the current JWs die, there are no more newer JWs to replace them in 1x1 rate. And WT knows that. Because this, WT is leaving the sect lighter. They need at least a 1x1 replacement rate or the sect will end in some decades.

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

TheScientist

There’s a difference between lower baptism numbers (true) and decline in membership (not happened yet).

As said by others, there are several factors that create vagueness about who is a Jehovah's Witness or not. So for me, I focus on the number of baptized people, where, according to anecdotes, the majority are children of Jehovah's Witness parents. I have already made a graph, comparing the baptism curve with the curve of the publishers and it is clear that the number of baptisms does not follow the publishers, suggesting a strong shrinkage. But you don't even need numbers. You can see that when Jehovah's Witnesses are preaching, no one cares about them, no one stops to listen to them. And I'm saying in Latin America. In the US and the EU, things could be worse. Also, when I mean decline, I mean the number of empty seats in KH. In my city, KH have been sold for a long time and congregations are reagrouped as single one. So if JWs aren't in decline, I don't know what name could be used.

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

TheScientist

They have to begin declining before they can continue declining. Unlike the vast majority of churches JWs are holding their own in western countries and continuing to grow in many others. They suffered one year of decline during the pandemic, under 1%, and quickly recovered.

I'm wondering where you got those numbers from. In the JW World Report's numbers, the number of baptisms is stagnating year after year. And we are talking about official numbers. Things could be worse than they let on. Just look at the number of empty meetings and congregations being merged into one. I agree that in poorer countries, the work has not seen this decline. But overall, the situation is depressing. Otherwise they wouldn't be making so many desperate changes.