pixel and wifibandit present, in its original form, gmb_e.mp4 "you became so beloved to us".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odfdkl8lwpk.
JGB: The WT should 'throw-in-the-towel' and address any and all future communiques as follows: "TO ALL BODIES OF ELDERS, WIFIBANDIT AND PIXEL."
Hahahahahahahha!
The truth is, we here on JWN are better informed than most elders and usually find out the latest before they do!
recently, several threads have had some debate about logic, evidence, critical thinking and skepticism.
i wanted to write a post discussing those things, hopefully to clarify what those things are, why they are important and how to use those tools.
first, logic, at its core, is simply a method for how to reason validly, how to draw conclusions based on a premise.
Marvin: The point is that a person can have a passion for a subject without having a passion for a particular finding based on research of that subject.
I understand and agree in theory. The problem again is that in practice we are dealing with humans. And the fact is that, with us, it just ain't that easy because of the way we are made.
Have you read Mistakes Were Made referenced above (see page 4)? I think you'd find it a fascinating and informative read.
recently, several threads have had some debate about logic, evidence, critical thinking and skepticism.
i wanted to write a post discussing those things, hopefully to clarify what those things are, why they are important and how to use those tools.
first, logic, at its core, is simply a method for how to reason validly, how to draw conclusions based on a premise.
Marvin Shilmer: The best way to avoid confirmation bias is to release oneself from caring about the outcome
Oh, is that all?
I agree with you, but know from tons of experience that you've placed a pretty tall order and most folks just ain't gonna do it.
The other problem is this: if you don't care about the outcome, you likely won't do the work to find it.
it seems they do have a database!
!you can view it here on the royal commission website:.
http://www.childabuseroyalcommission.gov.au/exhibits/636f01a5-50db-4b59-a35e-a24ae07fb0ad/case-study-29,-july-2015,-sydney.
Petraglyph, thanks for taking the time to do a more accurate analysis.
We are getting very close to a 2:1 ratio. Taking into consideration the assumptions you made I think it is safe to say in every day parlance that it is roughly a 2:1 ratio and that there are thousands of victims.
This bears out, a very important point (which I posted previously) that we should keep in mind: the majority of sexual abusers do not limit themselves to a single victim. Dr. Monica Applewhite acknowledged that in her testimony. Also, it is likely that there are abusers whom the WT Australia Branch is unaware. This means that the 1,006 known abusers represent a much larger number of victims. How many, it is impossible to know.
Let's extrapolate this to the Worldwide Work, shall we?
There were 66,484 publishers in Australia last year and 7,867,958 average publishers total (source: 2015 Yearbook).
A little quick math suggests that there likely has been well over 100,000 abusers in the organization over the last half century. This suggests that there has been many hundreds of victims of their abuse, possibly in the millions!
Obviously, this mental exercise involves a certain
amount of conjecture and speculation, but I don't believe there is any
valid reason to believe the problem in Australia is unique or
significantly different to any other area or culture. Are Australians
more depraved than other people? Nothing suggests this. On the contrary,
that the Australian government is leading the way in addressing it
suggests the opposite, if anything.
Also, I have not made any
attempts to adjust for various growth rates of the religion throughout
the world over the last 50 years. But I don't think that is important or
necessary to understand the point.
What is important is to
allow the significance of the known facts to really sink in. Take some
time with this and ponder what it really says about this religion,
particularly in light of its history of pointing their finger at other
religions meanwhile denying their own moral failing. Really consider the
magnitude of this problem.
So, let's review: It's not just a cult, it is one of the worst, most damaging and destructive religious cults in the history of mankind, one which needlessly puts vulnerable children at risk and historically has done precious little, if anything, to protect them!
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it seems they do have a database!
!you can view it here on the royal commission website:.
http://www.childabuseroyalcommission.gov.au/exhibits/636f01a5-50db-4b59-a35e-a24ae07fb0ad/case-study-29,-july-2015,-sydney.
Wow, quite a few Elders and Ministerial Servants on the list.
1,730 victims / 1,006 abusers = 1.72/1 ratio
recently, several threads have had some debate about logic, evidence, critical thinking and skepticism.
i wanted to write a post discussing those things, hopefully to clarify what those things are, why they are important and how to use those tools.
first, logic, at its core, is simply a method for how to reason validly, how to draw conclusions based on a premise.
Vidqun: But how to avoid confirmation bias?
Great question, and a really hard thing to do. One of the best ways to approach this problem is to learn to recognize it in others and then to work to see it in ourselves. That takes a lot of hard work, honesty and self-awareness. Most people are simply too lazy and afraid to do it.
The peer review process can also be of help, maybe. Ironically, it can often have the opposite affect. Other people usually are more than glad to point out our own biases. Sadly, many will do so in brutal, unkind ways. It takes a tough person that really wants to know what is true to survive that process. Unfortunately, that process can cause many people to "double-down" on their biased beliefs and hold onto them even more firmly.
There's a great book on the subject I'd like to recommend. Here's a link to a thread I started on this book a while back:
Mistakes Were Made, But Not by Me (by Tavris and Aronson)
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recently, several threads have had some debate about logic, evidence, critical thinking and skepticism.
i wanted to write a post discussing those things, hopefully to clarify what those things are, why they are important and how to use those tools.
first, logic, at its core, is simply a method for how to reason validly, how to draw conclusions based on a premise.
andrekish: Thanks for list. To me they will be very, very useful. Can I refer you to a post I put on a little earlier on this topic by Vivianne and ask you opinion after using your list of skills above.
You're welcome. I'll look at your post.
recently, several threads have had some debate about logic, evidence, critical thinking and skepticism.
i wanted to write a post discussing those things, hopefully to clarify what those things are, why they are important and how to use those tools.
first, logic, at its core, is simply a method for how to reason validly, how to draw conclusions based on a premise.
Great thread!
Can't wait to really read it in detail. Until then, here is a short list of critical thinking skills that everyone should have in their toolkit:
so i was fooled by the witnesses.
what can i learn from that?
not to accept things at face value but to seek out opinion and different view points.. hence my question " do you believe man landed on the moon?.
Viv: Complain that Viv is a big old meanie
I didn't know you were big or old! ... lol
so i was fooled by the witnesses.
what can i learn from that?
not to accept things at face value but to seek out opinion and different view points.. hence my question " do you believe man landed on the moon?.
