Good to know.
Note the use of the legal terms "Circuit" and "District" which are ubiquitous in JW-speak.
Coincidence? No.
This is when, where and how the legalistic approach to "worship" began in the religion which came to be known as Jehovah's Witnesses.
The Pharisees would be so proud of little Joey.
hi people,.
i want as much data as possible on the effect of the internet on the time captured by the cult.. please answer the three following questions about yourself or about someone you know (for example, if your parents or grandparents were jw's and left).
1) were you raised as a jw, or did you convert?.
ILoveTTATT2: I am interested in doing this as best as possible.
If you're really serious, then you need to reconsider your approach and your starting assumptions.
Here's what's getting you off:
ILoveTTATT2: I think this would be an interesting stat that has never been done before. I am certain that the results will be that the internet significantly reduces time in for everyone. A graph of "time in" vs year would be very insightful. I am sure that there will be more "lifers" in previous generations, and much less now.
Instead of starting with a question (hypothesis), you began with an assumption stated in terms that show you've already reached your conclusion before you even began your research. As a result, you are only finding results that confirm what you already believe.
This is not how science works.
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Try framing your hypothesis as a question. Maybe something like this:
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As SailAway astutely observed: "Your survey doesn't question whether the Internet was a key factor in
leaving the organization earlier or if it was a factor at all." If you really want to know if the internet was a factor, you should have asked that in your survey. But you'd also have to realize that the answers to this question would inherently be skewed because everyone answering it is on the internet responding to your survey!
Ponder these questions and concerns and see if they help clarify and focus your research.
Also, you should really wade through that old thread on this topic by Cedars which I referenced previously (see page 9 of this thread). You'll learn a lot by reading the back and forth between him, slimboyfat, Sir82 and 00DAD.
Don't forget to read Paul Grundy's research also.
Oubliette
no, not because of the message of deluding yourself into seeing the hand of god working in mundane wt activities.
that is to be expected from this org.
what really bothered me was the quote in paragraph one.
Divergent: things that are credited to "God's hand" can simply be attributed to pure coincidence
Yes. Here's an old thread posted by 00DAD: Jehovah is the God of Parking Lots:
Have you ever noticed that JWs that have completely swallowed the kool-aid are really whacked in their thinking when it comes to interpreting life's events. No matter how things turn out, good or bad, they always--and I mean ALWAYS--spin it to confirm the belief that Jehovah is blessing THEM and not unbelievers.
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Food for thought: There are no atheists in foxholes, or so we're told. But we'll never know if the soldiers blown to bits were praying to their God at the very moment their body exploded.
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I knew a really annoying "Brother" that was always going on and on telling everyone how much God was blessing him in this or that. Now don't get me wrong, I think people should be appreciative, but he was always saying stupid stuff like, "Jehovah really blessed me today," but it was always about really trivial stuff and not ever about anything really important. Now mind you, this guy was an elder and regular pioneer, very respected in the circuit as well as in the congregation. He was a highly sought after speaker in congregations all over Southern California and frequently was featured on Circuit Assemblies and District Conventions. Nevertheless, he often fell victim to this fallacious way of thinking about God's alleged involvement in the mundane affairs of life that is sadly ubiquitous among JWs.
For example, when he'd tell me about his latest "proof" of God's blessing I'd ask, "How so?"
Brother Blessed (BB) might say something like, "Well when I went to the Post Office this morning, I got a parking space right away even though the lot was full!"
Me, "So Jehovah is the God of Parking Lots?"
BB, "Whaddya' mean? Are you making fun of me?"
Me, "Well, it sounds like you're saying that the Creator of the Entire Universe thought it was important enough to drop everything else He was doing and just focus on making sure that YOU found a place to park so YOU could mail your mail."
BB, "That's right."
Me, "And all those other people that didn't find a parking place, God's NOT blessing them. Is that right?"
BB, "Yes, that's right."
Me, "And why is that?"
BB, "Because I'm serving Jehovah and they're not."
Me, "And you know this how?"
BB, "Because I got the parking place and they didn't."
Me, "That's your proof?"
BB, "Yes."
Me, "This mail, was it something 'theocratic' or just ordinary correspondence?"
BB, "It was just me paying my bills is all."
Me, "Then what makes you think Jehovah would bless that?"
BB, "I know because he did. I got the parking spot and everyone else was just circling around with no where to park."
Me, "I see ... I think. So WHY would Jehovah bless YOU and not the other people in the parking lot, especially considering the letters you had to mail were not of any spiritual importance?"
BB, "Because I'm pioneering and needed to get out in service afterwards. Also, I have a Service Meeting part tonight I need to get home and prepare."
Me, "Oh-kay ... So all that pioneering and meeting attendance is just so you can get good parking places?"
BB, "No, them's just the perks."
Me, "So God will 'bless' you when it comes to parking even though you can't speak English properly, but that's OK because you spend 90 hours a months walking up and down Ventura Boulevard in a suit being ignored by the few people that are, for-whatever-reason, also walking down the street, but going the opposite direction."
BB, "Exactly! Now you're getting it."
Me, "What about your wife leaving you? I mean that was really tragic for you wasn't it?"
BB, "Yes it was. You know, she broke my heart! Why are you bringing that up? That really hurts!"
Me, "I know it does and I'm sorry. But where was Jehovah's blessing there? Wouldn't you rather have a faithful wife than a good parking space at the post office?"
BB, "Why are you saying this? You're making me mad. I don't like where this conversation is going ...."
Me, "No, I'm sure you don't and come to think of it neither do I!"
it amazes me how many of you have left it all behind, including family, brothers and sisters, friends and a full network of people.
i for one cannot find the courage to breakaway, and this causes me great anxiety and stress.
it eats me alive to think that if i open my mouth everyone i know will simply turn their back on me.
suavojr, I can't say that I've "overcome" being shunned, but I have learned to accept it and deal with it.
I think it's also important to get some clarity on the situation. For one, I didn't leave my family and friends. I quit attending meetings at the KH and they subsequently left me.
Although I don't like it and definitely wish they would be different, it makes a difference to place the blame for the relationships ending where it belongs, on them.
A few years ago I supposedly had 8 million friends "closer than a brother." Now I know that was never really true. My circle of friends is significantly smaller and two of my own children won't talk to me simply because I don't follow seven small-minded, delusional fools in Brooklyn.
But I know this: the people that are my family and friends now love me for WHO I am, and not WHAT I (pretend to) believe.
Counseling helps. Try it.
hi people,.
i want as much data as possible on the effect of the internet on the time captured by the cult.. please answer the three following questions about yourself or about someone you know (for example, if your parents or grandparents were jw's and left).
1) were you raised as a jw, or did you convert?.
An average is not necessarily half-way in a data set, it all depends on its distribution.
The first part of your statement is correct, the second is not. There are three kinds of mathematical averages. See my previous post.
If something has a 50-50 chance, like a flip of a coin, the law of large numbers says that if you flip a coin enough times, you will have a 50-50 chance of getting heads or tail.
No. If you flipped a coin a million times in a row and came up head every time, the next flip would still have a 50/50 chance of being heads or tails (assuming a legitimate coin).
no, not because of the message of deluding yourself into seeing the hand of god working in mundane wt activities.
that is to be expected from this org.
what really bothered me was the quote in paragraph one.
How about that paragraph that talks about all the victories the Org has won since 2000?
And where is the paragraph about all the losses the Org has lost since 2000?
hi people,.
i want as much data as possible on the effect of the internet on the time captured by the cult.. please answer the three following questions about yourself or about someone you know (for example, if your parents or grandparents were jw's and left).
1) were you raised as a jw, or did you convert?.
ILoveTTATT2: If the average of the 1970 group is 20 years (i.e. most left in the 90's), and the average of the 2000's group is 10, meaning most left in 2010, then the statement that the exit is speeding up is valid.
Again, your conclusion does NOT follow from your premise.
You have presented this argument:
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It is the logical equivalent of this:
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The significant difference is that--while I think there might actually be something to your conclusion even though the scientific data supporting it is sketchy* --your conclusion does NOT follow from your premise.
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hi people,.
i want as much data as possible on the effect of the internet on the time captured by the cult.. please answer the three following questions about yourself or about someone you know (for example, if your parents or grandparents were jw's and left).
1) were you raised as a jw, or did you convert?.
ILoveTTATT2: If I had made a similar survey in 1985 regarding the people baptized in the 1970's, it is possible that the average response would be closer to the 15 years difference.
Sure it's "possible," if they all left in the early '80s. This is not only logically absurd, it ignores the historical facts what actually happened to the membership of the JW religion post-1975. Not only is it NOT what happened, your response
Do you not know how to calculate a mathematical average and (more importantly) what it means? There are three kinds of averages: mean, mode and median. They are different and have corresponding applications depending on what one is trying to measure and report.
That notwithstanding: gathering, collating and correctly interpreting statistical data is significantly more complex than the informal survey you are conducting here.
I was trying to be a helpful, but your response shows a lack of interest in approaching this in a scientific manner.
Have you heard? There are three kinds of people in the world: those that are good at math and those that aren't.
hi people,.
i want as much data as possible on the effect of the internet on the time captured by the cult.. please answer the three following questions about yourself or about someone you know (for example, if your parents or grandparents were jw's and left).
1) were you raised as a jw, or did you convert?.
BTW, I would not be at all surprised to find that the rate of defection from the JW religion has increased as a result of the internet and the corresponding access to disconfirming information. This is true for religion in general.
I am just pointing out that your calculations do not support that hypothesis.
You might find this article in Psychology Today informative:
hi people,.
i want as much data as possible on the effect of the internet on the time captured by the cult.. please answer the three following questions about yourself or about someone you know (for example, if your parents or grandparents were jw's and left).
1) were you raised as a jw, or did you convert?.
ILoveTTATT2: If the average of the 1970 group is 20 years (i.e. most left in the 90's), and the average of the 2000's group is 10, meaning most left in 2010, then the statement that the exit is speeding up is valid.
No it is not. Your conclusion does NOT follow from your premise.
If you would have somehow been able to conduct a similar survey of the 1970 group in 1985 you would have gotten an average much lower than 20 years due to the fact that you were surveying a 15 year time period. It could not have been longer than the period under consideration.
I suspect the relatively large percentage of those leaving after the 1975 debacle would actually have made the average Length of Time a JW for the 1970 Group much lower. But you are asking people forty years later. It's no coincidence that the average time a JW now is 20 years:
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It would be more telling to try and determine what percentage of people leave the religion each year and has that trend changed.
Again, please see my reference on the previous page to Paul Grundy's work and read his detailed study. You'll find it most informative.
A few years ago, the Pew Forum posted a study that showed that JWs had the worst retention rate of any religion in the United States. But it did not account for converts, only born-ins.
Pew Forum survey - Key Findings and Statistics on Religion in America (note this link goes to an updated analysis of the 2007 report referenced below):
Jehovah's Witnesses have the lowest retention rate of any religious tradition. Only 37% of all those who say they were raised as Jehovah's Witnesses still identify themselves as Jehovah's Witnesses. - (From a nationwide survey conducted from May 8 to Aug. 13, 2007)
