Oubliette

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Posts by Oubliette

• 
  155

  Survey: How long were you in the cult vs what year you were baptized

  by ILoveTTATT2 in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  hi people,.

  i want as much data as possible on the effect of the internet on the time captured by the cult.. please answer the three following questions about yourself or about someone you know (for example, if your parents or grandparents were jw's and left).

  1) were you raised as a jw, or did you convert?.

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  Oubliette

  ILoveTTATT2: If the average of the 1970 group is 20 years (i.e. most left in the 90's), and the average of the 2000's group is 10, meaning most left in 2010, then the statement that the exit is speeding up is valid.

  Again, your conclusion does NOT follow from your premise.

  You have presented this argument:

  • If (2015 - 1975) / 2 = 20, and (2015 - 1999) / 2 <= 10, then "the exit is speeding up."

  -
  

  It is the logical equivalent of this:

  1. If Obama is President of the US and Anthony Morris III has a thing about tight pants and colored socks, then my dog is a cat.
  2. Barack Obama IS President of the US, and Anthony Morris III DOES have a thing about tight pants and colored socks, therefore: my dog MUST be a cat.

  -
  

  The significant difference is that--while I think there might actually be something to your conclusion even though the scientific data supporting it is sketchy* --your conclusion does NOT follow from your premise.

  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
  

  See: Trends in the Correlation Between Higher Education and Religiosity: A Research Note on the Longitudinal Structure of this Relationship (Ray, M., 2015)
  
• 
  155

  Survey: How long were you in the cult vs what year you were baptized

  by ILoveTTATT2 in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  hi people,.

  i want as much data as possible on the effect of the internet on the time captured by the cult.. please answer the three following questions about yourself or about someone you know (for example, if your parents or grandparents were jw's and left).

  1) were you raised as a jw, or did you convert?.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Oubliette

  ILoveTTATT2: If I had made a similar survey in 1985 regarding the people baptized in the 1970's, it is possible that the average response would be closer to the 15 years difference.

  Sure it's "possible," if they all left in the early '80s. This is not only logically absurd, it ignores the historical facts what actually happened to the membership of the JW religion post-1975. Not only is it NOT what happened, your response
  

  Do you not know how to calculate a mathematical average and (more importantly) what it means? There are three kinds of averages: mean, mode and median. They are different and have corresponding applications depending on what one is trying to measure and report.

  That notwithstanding: gathering, collating and correctly interpreting statistical data is significantly more complex than the informal survey you are conducting here.

  I was trying to be a helpful, but your response shows a lack of interest in approaching this in a scientific manner.

  Have you heard? There are three kinds of people in the world: those that are good at math and those that aren't.

  
  
  
• 
  155

  Survey: How long were you in the cult vs what year you were baptized

  by ILoveTTATT2 in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  hi people,.

  i want as much data as possible on the effect of the internet on the time captured by the cult.. please answer the three following questions about yourself or about someone you know (for example, if your parents or grandparents were jw's and left).

  1) were you raised as a jw, or did you convert?.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Oubliette

  BTW, I would not be at all surprised to find that the rate of defection from the JW religion has increased as a result of the internet and the corresponding access to disconfirming information. This is true for religion in general.
  

  I am just pointing out that your calculations do not support that hypothesis.

  You might find this article in Psychology Today informative:

  • More Knowledge, Less Belief in Religion?
• 
  155

  Survey: How long were you in the cult vs what year you were baptized

  by ILoveTTATT2 in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  hi people,.

  i want as much data as possible on the effect of the internet on the time captured by the cult.. please answer the three following questions about yourself or about someone you know (for example, if your parents or grandparents were jw's and left).

  1) were you raised as a jw, or did you convert?.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Oubliette

  ILoveTTATT2: If the average of the 1970 group is 20 years (i.e. most left in the 90's), and the average of the 2000's group is 10, meaning most left in 2010, then the statement that the exit is speeding up is valid.

  No it is not. Your conclusion does NOT follow from your premise.

  If you would have somehow been able to conduct a similar survey of the 1970 group in 1985 you would have gotten an average much lower than 20 years due to the fact that you were surveying a 15 year time period. It could not have been longer than the period under consideration.

  I suspect the relatively large percentage of those leaving after the 1975 debacle would actually have made the average Length of Time a JW for the 1970 Group much lower. But you are asking people forty years later. It's no coincidence that the average time a JW now is 20 years:

  • (2015 - 1975) / 2 = 20 years
    

  -
  

  It would be more telling to try and determine what percentage of people leave the religion each year and has that trend changed.

  Again, please see my reference on the previous page to Paul Grundy's work and read his detailed study. You'll find it most informative.
  

  A few years ago, the Pew Forum posted a study that showed that JWs had the worst retention rate of any religion in the United States. But it did not account for converts, only born-ins.

  Pew Forum survey - Key Findings and Statistics on Religion in America (note this link goes to an updated analysis of the 2007 report referenced below):
  

  Jehovah's Witnesses have the lowest retention rate of any religious tradition. Only 37% of all those who say they were raised as Jehovah's Witnesses still identify themselves as Jehovah's Witnesses. - (From a nationwide survey conducted from May 8 to Aug. 13, 2007)
• 
  55

  SHUNNING - Unchristian Psychological Torture

  by EdenOne in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  some time ago, i wrote an extensive article on shunning and published it on my website.

  since that website had views on doctrinal matters that no longer reflect my current stand, i took the website down.

  however, my views on this matter are still current, and for the benefit of everyone here, i'm going to post the article here.

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  Oubliette

  JD: From the perspective of a Jehovah's Witness the bible does justify shunning, and you cannot prove it doesn't.

  
  
• 
  155

  Survey: How long were you in the cult vs what year you were baptized

  by ILoveTTATT2 in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  hi people,.

  i want as much data as possible on the effect of the internet on the time captured by the cult.. please answer the three following questions about yourself or about someone you know (for example, if your parents or grandparents were jw's and left).

  1) were you raised as a jw, or did you convert?.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Oubliette

  Paul Grundy has done some pretty impressive work on this subject, and without all the drama of, well you know, that other guy:

  • Jehovah's Witness Statistics
• 
  155

  Survey: How long were you in the cult vs what year you were baptized

  by ILoveTTATT2 in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  hi people,.

  i want as much data as possible on the effect of the internet on the time captured by the cult.. please answer the three following questions about yourself or about someone you know (for example, if your parents or grandparents were jw's and left).

  1) were you raised as a jw, or did you convert?.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Oubliette

  the average post 2000 is less than 10 years.

  Well it would have to be, wouldn't it.

  It's only 2015.

  (2015 - 1999) / 2 = 8.

  What did you expect?
  

  Also, you're only asking people that have left to participate so you are automatically excluding everyone still in. Although, discounting for the slight decreasing trend in baptisms over the past decade or so, we would expect the average length of time people have been "in" the religion since 2000 to be about the mathematical mean also, but for the opposite reason.
  

  It would be more meaningful to know what percentage of active JWs have left at any given time. The way the WTBTS reports data makes it extremely difficult to know this.

  There was a very detailed discussion about this general idea about 4 years ago back before SLIMBOYFAT left (welcome back) and everyone here was still on speaking terms with Cedars.

  As I recall, this was one of the first threads where Cedars got his knickers in a knot because people were calling him on his flawed statistical analysis:

  • World map showing net reduction in publisher numbers

  -
  

  The discussion really gets interesting around page 7.

  
  
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  9

  Proof of Aliens

  by Coded Logic in

  1. social
  2. humour

  so today i just found out that aliens are real.

  two people came by my house and shared the good news.

  the conversation went something like this:.

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  Oubliette

  PFF!

  
  
  
• 
  55

  SHUNNING - Unchristian Psychological Torture

  by EdenOne in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  some time ago, i wrote an extensive article on shunning and published it on my website.

  since that website had views on doctrinal matters that no longer reflect my current stand, i took the website down.

  however, my views on this matter are still current, and for the benefit of everyone here, i'm going to post the article here.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Oubliette

  JD: From the perspective of a Jehovah's Witness the bible does justify shunning

  Right. Again, that is only because this is what they are TOLD the bible says and--more importantly--what they are TOLD it means.

  Eden demonstrated there are alternate interpretations. That is just onepart of his evidence based argument.

  Fundamentally however, to persuade a JW to abandon his acceptance of shunning as practiced by JWs you would have to undermine their faith in the Governing Body as God's spokesmen/representatives on Earth and/or their faith in the Bible.

  As important as those are, this is not part of his thesis. Perhaps in a concluding section of his essay, Eden could raise the issue that since the GB have this wrong, maybe they are wrong about other things, especially their role as G.O.D. (Guardians of Doctrine). This would be a good segue into Geoff Jackson's admission to the ARC that it would be "presumptuous" to claim that they (the GB) are God's spokesmen.
  
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  28

  Sundays without the indoctrination session...

  by Tornintwo in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  what are you doing instead of the meeting?.

  i'm ordering cool personalised pressies for all of my non jw family online, whilst listening to some great 80's classics (currently fade to grey, visage).

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  Oubliette

  I enjoy lying in bed on a Sunday morning, with the window open, listening to the church bells, eating buttered toast with cunty fingers. - paraphrasing Henry Green in Loving