Posts by DJS
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34US Official Predicts End Of World Power Status
by metatron inhttp://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/03/28/americans-must-adjust-to-a-world-dominated-by-china-feds-bullard-says/.
an alliance could emerge that suddenly upsets the balance of power , making anglo-america number 2. already, the brics nations seem to be moving towards a loose alliance on many issues.
either way, things are moving in china's direction.
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34
US Official Predicts End Of World Power Status
by metatron inhttp://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/03/28/americans-must-adjust-to-a-world-dominated-by-china-feds-bullard-says/.
an alliance could emerge that suddenly upsets the balance of power , making anglo-america number 2. already, the brics nations seem to be moving towards a loose alliance on many issues.
either way, things are moving in china's direction.
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DJS
Met,
Global and macro economic theory is very complicated. Economists build models to try to understand, and help governments predict for example how a proposed socio-economic program will impact a society. The good ones get Nobel Peace Prizes when they are accurate, but their models are always being re-tooled, scrapped and re-built. That's because societies and cultures change. Spending and saving habits change. Countries move from agrarian (the U.S. in the early/mid 20th Century and China, I don't know, NOW) to an industrial economy. Trying to justapoze a few factoids onto a nation or culture or predict its future with any accuracy when the entire mosaic isn't understood simply doesn't work.
And economic theory suggests that governments should spend LESS when the economy is booming and MORE when it is in recession. Its called Keynsian theory and was initially explained by John Maynard Keynes during the Great Depression as the solution to getting out of it. Roossevelt employed it to move out of that rut, as did Bush and Obama during the Great Recession. The theory runs counter-intuitive to humans but makes sense when you actually think about it. Let the private sector fuel growth and governments cut spending during great times and governments prime the pump by spending and getting people buying and selling during bad times. That's how most governments work now, but it took decades to get it. My point is trying to look at a snap shot of China right now and make solid predictions about it, when it is similar in many ways to the U.S. 75 years ago is fruitless.
So the Chinese may be getting it completely right, but there are very good historically accurate economic reasons to suggest there may be a few bumps in the road. A GDP of 3 percent annual means that the economy will double in 24 years. A GDP of 7.5 percent would mean a nation would double its economy in less than a decade. That is so fast that it doesn't typically allow nations to re-consider investments, tack in the wind, adapt to changing social, environmental and political changes. Big mistakes are often made. That's why a 3 percent growth rate is desirable, as it allows for all of that and is better for planning long-term.
As I pointed out in your previous post about this, economic theory is very complicated and takes years or decades to become clear. Google Economist jokes and you will see. The government official, and the person who wrote that article you posted, are clearly not experts. Find better material to quote/reference.
As far as military spending, geesh man, google the percent of U.S. military spending as a part of the GDP since the Eisenhower Era (you referenced this in a previous OP about the same topic) and you will see that it has actually gone steadily down since that time, with blips in the 60s, 80s (Reagan's increased military spending which many credit in large part to the end of the Soviet empire and Cold War-so much for a hawkish/militarist mindset) and 00s (post 9/11). Obama is cutting military spending deeply, and has proposed addiitonal cuts. On a side note, don't think for a second that the U.S. current mindset of rolling back its military spending isn't one of the things Vlad considererd when he went into the Ukraine. There is so much more to this topic to consider.
Things are complicated. You make some very good posts, but your anti-west bias colors your views on these topics. Ive got an MBA and have studied and taught, at the college level, global, macro and micro economics theory and application. If you want to trade facts - not factoids- about this topic, lets lock and load. And don't get me started about U.S. military might and its technological capabilities. I won't be able to share what I know. But I know.
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34
US Official Predicts End Of World Power Status
by metatron inhttp://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/03/28/americans-must-adjust-to-a-world-dominated-by-china-feds-bullard-says/.
an alliance could emerge that suddenly upsets the balance of power , making anglo-america number 2. already, the brics nations seem to be moving towards a loose alliance on many issues.
either way, things are moving in china's direction.
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DJS
There is so much wrong with this article that it is difficult to know where to begin. But Met, I will say one thing; you cetainly are consistent. I get it. You hate the U.S./British/Israeli militaristic system. I've followed so many of your posts; the last one was pathetic. This one is barely better. You can find any 'government official' who will say just about anything. Note this ridiculous statement from your link: " But China’s economy is growing much more quickly , targeting growth of about 7.5% this year. In contrast, the U.S. economy will be lucky to grow by 3% ."
"Lucky" to grow by 3%??????That's exactly what the target is for the U.S. and has been for decades. It is considered sustainable and almost all economic decisions are made based on that target. 7.5% is considered by almost all economists as unsustainable in this and just about every other country for more than a short time, and typically leads to problems, sometimes big sometimes bigger.
This is jaundiced 'journalism' if you even want to call it that. China has a growing middle class but is in no way similar to the U.S. in this manner. Millisons of peasants are being forcibly 'relocated' without any say in the matter. Eminent domain has a different meaning there.
What they do have is a government that can make unilateral economic/environment/cultrual changes and immediately implement them, as in the U.S. it is a partnership between government and capitalism. Don't like the polluton in Bejing? The government simply says no cars are allowed and everyone must ride bicycles. Let's see if that is a sustainable 'business model." It may well be, but the government better freaking 'choose wisely Indiana" or it will be a crash and burn one day of historic magnitude not dissimilar to fthe crash of Communism where the government made all of the (usually really bad non-free market) decisions.
The free market invisible hand is much more likely to ensure economic efficiency (yeah I know there are problems here too but Adam Smith's invisible hand is much more at work here than in China).
Met, I suggest you actually do some real research on both sides of this topic before your next anti-west/U.S./Brit/Israeli post. At least this one isn't simply a delusional rant with definitive statements devoid of facts. But its freaking close.
By simple fact that China has over 4 times the population they will eclipse the U.S. in many economic matters. DUH. And military??? Puh-lease.
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DJS
AlphaMan,
Spot on. The Malaysian officials appear to mean well, but they are in over their collective heads. It is apparent they haven't had to do this before. There is still a lot of misinformation weeks in, which means that there is not a clear chain of command associated with the investigation. Another thing that strongly suggests there is no clear - or strong - lead to the investigation is that there continues to be one voice indicating criminal actions and one voice indicating no apparent indication of criminal action.
This appears to be a failure of Incidemt Command (I posted a very brief overview of it in the Wash. state mudslide event post). In the U.S. the official investigation into airplane crashes/events - and any such spokespersons - are very tightly controlled by the agency responsible for the investigations. Professional incident command principles are applied so that there is one lead, one voice, one statement. In Malaysia they do not appear to have an official investigation unit, or if present the unit lacks the authority or training to carry out the investigation - including any statements about it or to the media/families - without political input, pressure or changing what is said.
The Malaysians don't appear to be completely incompetent, they just seem to lack an understanding and or training. Maybe this will get them to improve, but unless and until politicians leave incident response to professionals such problems will continue.
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Same sex marriage legalised in the UK at midnight tonight!!!
by DuvanMuvan intitle pretty much explains it all.
lots of people are getting married at midnight tonight.. what do you guys think?
maybe if anyone gets called on by a jw this weekend you can ask them what they think about it.. im just glad because it shows that religion doesn't define our conscience, that basic human decency can prevail over time and hopefully, these types of gradual but big changes will be present in the wts too in the future .
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DJS
Bemused, I'm ok with gays driving, as long as they don't drive slow in the fast lane.
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12
The Scarlet Letter by Nathaniel Hawthorne
by Oubliette in[warning: this post contains spoilers!].
i've been reading hawthorne's the scarlet letter.
it is really quite an interesting read for us ex- and soon-to-be-ex-jws, especially if you or a loved one has ever been dealt with judicially by the elders.. i love the way hawthorne portrays the main characters:.
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DJS
I've used references to the 'scarlet letter" numerous times in reference to the Borg's use of "A"-postate. This is one of my favorite books from yester-year.
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65
Same sex marriage legalised in the UK at midnight tonight!!!
by DuvanMuvan intitle pretty much explains it all.
lots of people are getting married at midnight tonight.. what do you guys think?
maybe if anyone gets called on by a jw this weekend you can ask them what they think about it.. im just glad because it shows that religion doesn't define our conscience, that basic human decency can prevail over time and hopefully, these types of gradual but big changes will be present in the wts too in the future .
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DJS
Thanks Tim, your post helps me to better understand the culture behind this. The only thing I would suggest is that tolerance and acceptance are two different things. If I'm a member of a minority group or a group for which 'equal rights' if that is what you wish to call it, i would be offended and wouldn't accept tolerance if it meant that i was still supposed to stay in my 'place.' There may be a lot of that going on. Society tolerating gays and gay unions and accepting gay marriage or equal rights and benefits expected by the straights - that's two very different things.
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DJS
BOTR, I understand. I avoided this site for a decade after I knew of its existence. I wanted to live my life and not immerse it in such thoughts. I only particiapte now because I am presumptuous (arrogant? pompous?) to think I can assist others on developing a better way to THINK. Thanks for your thoughts. Nice job.
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65
Same sex marriage legalised in the UK at midnight tonight!!!
by DuvanMuvan intitle pretty much explains it all.
lots of people are getting married at midnight tonight.. what do you guys think?
maybe if anyone gets called on by a jw this weekend you can ask them what they think about it.. im just glad because it shows that religion doesn't define our conscience, that basic human decency can prevail over time and hopefully, these types of gradual but big changes will be present in the wts too in the future .
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DJS
And while we are speaking about tradition I want to present something I have noted before on this site that should make sentient people think. For over 100,000 years do you know what the average 15-16 year old female was called? Mom.
For over 100,000 years do you know what the average 35 year old human was called? Deceased.
So the 'traditional' marriage arrangement, or whatever it was called a long time ago, by necessity to enable human DNA to be passed on in a manner that would better ensure another generation, was a man (likely much older) to a girl. That was called normal. No one gave it a whit's thought. The past few generations where prosperity (primarily the abundance of calories on a fairly continuous basis) has enabled humans to change 'tradition' is but a very small sliver when compared to human history. So Big Mac, you have neither history, tradition nor current cultural changes on your side. You seem to want things in life to be fixed at the point (which is a very very small segment of human history) where you are most comfortable with them.
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DJS
BOTR,
As many of us have expressed in previous posts, most of us atheists don't give one single thought to theists in our day to day lives. I used to be one, many of my friends are theists/Christians and I live my life asocially/apolitically and a/religiously. That hasn't anything to do with carrying on a debate on this site. If your atheist friends were debating theists they would get just as frustrated at mantras, beliefs, superstitions and a reliance on discredited 2000 and 3500 year old scrolls. Place the frustration you sense from sone of us in context. I never discuss religion outside of this forum, and I would prefer to never discuss it here, other than perhaps what type of coffin we would choose for the demins of the Borg.