Much of what you all have stated about Vlad is true. He has also shown himself to be a pragmatist when necessary and an astute politician. His gamble into the Ukraine backfired in a big way. As I pointed out on one of Metatron's From Russian With Love OPs, the West should do everything in its power short of boots on the ground to make each of Vlad's mis-steps feel like molasses. The sanctions hurt deeply, as I suggested they would. This isn't the Cold War, and the economic barriers that fell when the Wall fell make Mother Russian susceptible to lots of issues which before they were mostly sheltered from.
Falling oil prices has really hurt Putin and Russia's economy is in a major tailspin. Like the narcissist he is, he blame shifted Russia's problems to the West and the US for a long time. Intelligence reports indicate he went into a fairly seriously dark funk this past year due to all of the problems. The depressive state appears to be over for now, and we are experiencing manic Putin. The manic stage of a manic/depressive is always the scary stage, because they are willing to take a lot of risks. Returning to the Ukraine is one of them, as are the fly-bys and the hints at going into the Baltics.
But as long as his economy is in the tanks, and it will be subject to this as long as oil/natural gas comprise over half of his budge and revenues, the West can make any military forays extremely painful to Putin and Mother Russia. The unknowns are whether Europe will stand untied, especially Germany which has strong Soviet/Russia sentiments amongst the leadership. The natural gas pipeline and supply to Europe is certainly one of Putin's cards, but this is almost certainly of limited duration.
Supplying the Ukrainians with weapons will occur, if for no other reason than to serve to get Putin to the diplomacy table. The problem withe the weapons that the Ukrainians want is that they are not simply point and shoot weapons; they are complicated systems that require extensive training and likely onsite support for an extended period of time. The West would prefer not to go that route but they should threaten it at the least.
It's a game of Cold War Chicken; Vlad is playing his cards that the West will blink first. If he is wrong, Russia may sink even deeper into an economic and cultural funk. And this is the scariest part.