Coded,
Nice OP. Intelligence Analysts consider, among others, two things when they analyze and evaluate threats or potential threats: Intentions and Capabilities.
We probably have to give the US’ Intel Analysts a bit of slack on whether it was possible to accurately determine the intentions of the early ISIS groups. Islamic groups desiring a caliphate is commonplace in the ME, so clearly determining intentions would be difficult.
The Arab Spring helped lead to Syria and Assad’s current problems, as well as Assad’s harsh oppressive rule. Wanting to establish a caliphate and actually being able to do so are two very different things. The Arab/Islamic countries have tightly controlled these intentions for nearly a century, including banning or monitoring groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood and others.
The fall of so many Arab governments would and has obviously provided opportunity for those with caliphate intentions. Was the US Intel community a bit slow in identifying intentions? Possibly, but the Commander in Chief has the ability to disagree with Intel findings. It seems Obama may have done so, based on reports. We probably won’t know clearly until a few years after Obama leaves office.
The capabilities of ISIS are really the issue, and these were created by the overthrow of Saddam’s Iraq and especially by the dissolving of his army a few years later. ISIS’ capabilities didn’t come from rag tag collectibles from the post-Arab spring uprisings, nor did they come for the most part from internal Syrian sources.
They came from the only battle and strategy tested and conditioned people in the area, Saddam’s generals and military experts.
Without these men ISIS would have been a glorified version of Al Queda, capable of terrorist attacks and disrupting a government but completely incapable of funding, planning, and carrying out military tactics and strategy that enabled them to both take territory inside and outside of Syria by force and hold onto it by force.
The military and financial logistics and resources necessary to do that are enormous. No rag tag assemblage of Arab/Islamic militants could accomplish that. Ever.
Saddam’s military chiefs scurried to Syria like rats. They have returned with a vengeance. They had incredible resources. Battled Tested. Military strategists. Access to resources with a deep and extensive rolodex of support, financial aid and how to recruit, train, equip and carry out military objectives. Again, a few or a few thousand rebels or those desiring a caliphate couldn’t do what ISIS has done without this leadership and knowledge. History suggests that Hussein’s somewhat secular Baathist regime had been embracing strict sharia and Islamic fundamentalism for some time, which is the rocket fuel for the brutality we see in ISIS’ ‘management’ of ‘infidels’, x-tians, hybrids and gays.
http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.670177
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/23/opinion/how-saddam-hussein-gave-us-isis.html?_r=0