FTS,
I read Friedman and Stratfor every day, including the one you reference; it is one of my sources, but I also work with - or have contact with - current and former military advisors and security personnel who have up-close and personal experience working in various US governmental agencies around the world. It isn't considered nice or appropriate to call a head of state a cold blooded murderer or mafia hit man. Even Friedman is going to shy away from that. But that is what Putin is, and he plays well to the old guard and the rank and file who seek a strong leader. Most people are sheep. Most people are followers. Sadly, many Russians will follow Vlad into oblivion, because that's where he is heading.
Of course the Russians rationalize their actions, but the simple fact is that they will be forced to use force to accomplish their goals; the former republics do not want to be assimilated and are not waiting with wine and roses. A lot of old-guard Russians have romanticized this issue to the point where the old republics appear more like former lovers pining for them than angry exes wanting a restraining order. The Crimea was a cake walk, but there do not appear to be any additional cakes.