Warlock
YOU CANNOT BACK TEST FARTHER BECAUSE YOU DON'T HAVE THE NUMBERS. ANYTHING BEYOND THE NUMBERS IS SPECULATION. PLAIN AND SIMPLE...........SPECULATION.
No it isn't. Now, why do you ignore being told how temperatures prior to the 19th C are determined? Rather than research it you call it speculation, and that really isn't fair. The ratio of various isotopes of oxygen varies according to air temperature.Ice contains air bubbles. Therefore old ice allows you to determine the air temperature at the time it froze. Those isotopic ratios (for a givien temperature) are the same today as they were then. It is so NOT speculation.
Your example re. ATT; you can only get their records as long as ATT existed, just like you can only get temperture recors from weather stations as long as they existed. But just as weather existed before weather stations, and can be measured using things other than thermometer reading at weather stations, so to did communication 'stocks' exist before ATT, and the value of the commodities available in the past can be neasured by things other than the share price of ATT.
The ice cores come mostly from Antarctica and Greenland, but are backed up by ice cores from mountain glaciers... in the space of a few decades many of these mountain glaciers have become unviable for taking ice cores from... as they are melting...
http://www.chem.hope.edu/~polik/warming/IceCore/IceCore2.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_core
How come you are assuming we are all so stupid that we believe made-up stories? And yourself so smart that STILL without investigating the facts you consider yourself capable of having an informed opinion?
It's like me holding forth about the stock market (about which I know next-to-nothing) and telling YOU you are wrong by saying things you know (being knowledgable about the stock market) simply are not true.
I think you'd find me doing that silly and unreasonable.
Qcmbr
We have concrete GROUND based temperatures from 1850 nothing further back - nothing just best guesses - this is very, very different to hard facts. We are having 'faith' that the scientists stories are correct before that point. One hard fact I know about is that if you head up north in the UK you'll see glacial features from a time when the temperature was extremelly cold - a mere 11000 odd years ago - there is something very powerful causing cycles in temperature and it isn't man.
And the accurate air temperature records we have from both hemispheres mean nothing? Are you saying that ground temperature and air temperature are unlinked? That the Earth has under-floor heating prehaps? Why do you say "there is something very powerful causing cycles in temperature and it isn't man" when no one is saying that man is the ONLY influence on temperature?
Rather than producing simplistic responses that either imply you believe stuff I don't think you can prove (air and ground temperatures are unlinked), or which ignore the claims being made (man is NOW altering temperature) to make fallacious implications?
2 - Deriving global temperatures from ice cores is a very inexact science since by its definition it relies upon guessing what the data means. The chicken little brigade ignore that data anyway which suggests that the interglacial perods (15-20 000 years according to our theories) happen fairly frequently and temperature fluctuations (not man made) move enough to freeze most of this planet's northen landmass and then warm to our current temperature. Following this pattern we should realise that our society is on a very short tenure since we are 'due' another period of freezing. Global warming if manmade and sustainable is going to save us! Try imagine feeding and housing 10 billion people when swathes of Europe and North America is frozen solid.
Please show how isotopic detemination of air temperature using ice cores is 'guessing what the data means'. You saying it doesn't mean it is true, and unles you have good evidence I'd rather believe experts. And again, misrepresentation. Please show me an example of interglacial cycles being ignored in the work of climate researchers working on current temperature trends.
3 - Up until the 1970's our data was telling us that global temperatures where falling - what short memories we have - after that time the temperatures rose and yet all our graphs magically start to prove a steady increase in warming. If all the supporters of man made global warming want to explian the mistake that enamoured the scientific community and caused them to cry that we were all due a freeze and then explain how they could all have been so wrong then please do so. In the meantime let's all start suggesting they are infallible again even though they have flipped there position. Getting sucked once into a cult that flips doctrines just isn't enough for some people! I may sound harsh here but I'm just illustrating that the same thing is happening here. Scientific community preaches one thing - flips doctrine and preaches another using the same data to prove both with some new light to justify the flip go figure. Me - I don't care how many people say that the earth is flat - I'll wait and see what happens when someone goes off and tries to sail off the edge.
If you had actually read up on the subject you'd know why what you refer to was thought by some and why temerature were a they were then. Of coure, you will now be indignant that when you show by your statements that you don't know something, rather thn being embaressed you are acting authoratative on a subject you've not researched adequately. Why the arrogance Qc?
4 - There is a great desire to believe we are highly effective at controlling our environment and on a micro level we are masters but when it comes to global effects we just don't figure and we like to think we do. If global warming has some swith that we as humans can flip by simply increasing gas levels by a tiny fraction then it's already too late and all this talk about stopping global warming is just repentant waffle, you can't put the horse back in the stable unless anyone can think of a way to convince us all to live without power and can find a way to remove the gas that somehow is causing the issue. How stupid are we. Clean up pollution by all means, reduce emissions by being more efficient fine but stop pretending that we can play with the global thermostat by paying twice as much for products and taxing car usage - its not going to happen.
Half right and half wrong. WE have already screwed things up and probably have upto fifty years of upward trends even with realsitic controls. The UK could close down tomorrow, and the growth of China would equal the emmissions saved by the UK closing in TWO YEARS. But acting like financial incentives can't help control car use et.al. is like pretending the rise in cigarette cost doen't help ontrol useage.
5 - Models of climate change are models not facts, they crunch the data and burn vast amounts of cpu time and yet the very nature of modelling chaos systems is that your results show one of an uncountable possible outcomes. Over a long enough time order does arrive from chaos (the 'little ice age' cycle is the counterpart to our warm cycle we are in now - sample your majoity data at the peak of a warm cycle by all means but stop extrapolating forward as though temperatures will keep rising.) There is nothing so stupid as the hockey stick graph of temperature that we see trotted out by global warming reports - we are all aware that every system has checks and balances that stop things running away into mathematical progressions (e.g. sure there is a flu season but that flu season is matched by a decline in flu) so it is with temperature, if it rises sharply that induces negative feedbacks at some point that reverese the trend and generate the cycle.
"sample your majoity data at the peak of a warm cycle by all means but stop extrapolating forward as though temperatures will keep rising" - This is such a blatent misrepresentation I'd almost call it lying. Please show me the forcings that are causing climate change at this time. Come on, you think you know enough, show it.
There is nothing so stupid as the hockey stick graph of temperature that we see trotted out by global warming reports -
Just as when in a discussion with an ID supporter they say 'irreducable complexity" you know they don't have direct knowledge but are parrotting arguments they believe to be valid, but which have since been rebutted, so to in discussions of climate change you know someone is way behind on the facts.
6 - I'll happily bet that we are reaching the end of a mini warm cycle (40 odd years since the last cooling mini cycle that ended in the 70's) and from 2010 onwards temperatures will drop and we'll find another story from the scientists to believe.
What you bet is irrelevent unless you can show the forcings that are making what you claim is happening happen.
Now this is the bit where you get angry, and refuse to how any facts...