metatron
Firstly, my point regarding Christopher Landsea is NOT an ad hom. I actually show the blog author misrepresented things. Be careful with your sloppy accusations.
Secondly "He is wrong because he has a big nose" is an ad hom. "This is a lousy person to cite as he's hired out his opinion before and his credibility is questionable" is not an ad hom as long as it is factual, especially as I am virually pleading for people to discuss the science at the same time. My main interest is arguably discussing the science, so far the change-deniers et. al. seem to avoid it like the plauge.
So, where's your attempt to actually discuss the science?
zack
And why are they picking on carbon dioxide? We BREATHE it out, for crying out loud. Oh here's a solution the hypers of this "crisis" haven't put forward:
Yet another example of someone who has a strong opinion that nothing is happening, yet by their statements shows they don't begin to understand the scientific argument.
jaguarbass
Nice to see you use the adage 'efollow the money'. It is a good one.
Why don't you ALSO apply it to the fact all lobby groups against global warming being a fact are supported by vested interests who would lose money if we tried to limit further environmental damage?
It really is so like the tobacco industries support of 'scientists' and lobby groups who were aplogists for the damage smoking causes (which they supported as they stood to lose money if they didn't make a counter argument), but people seem unwilling to discuss the similarities.
Frank
The culprit for global warming and cooling seems primarily to be the sun.
A statement with enough science and exactness in it to respond to!
Yes, and the reason that the majority of sceintists are concerned is the current increase in temperature cannot be explained by the sun THIS TIME, even though it's role is pivotal and it has caused climsate change before.
As you seem to be interested in the science, let's cut to the chase.
- If my statement that there is no forcing from the sun to account for current climatic trends is incorect, please show me.
- If it is correct, please give me (with evidence) what forcing IS causing recent trends?
- If you are unable to do this, please speculate on likely forcings causing curerent climatic trends.
~~
In general this thread reads like regurgitated propoganda from the 'nothing happening' lobby. The references to the 70's ice age thing is a sure sign of it, as this is as over-used by that lobby as the little puffs of debris coming out the WTC windows a few stories below the collapse is over-used by the 911 conspiracists.
I know this stuff already as I have dealt with this particular change-deniers argument before, but thought I would do a 'ground-up' approach in examining the claims that 'as scientists were saying there would be global cooling were wrong then the scientists saying there will be global warming arguement will be wrong too".
For a start, science gets stuff wrong. And?
Does anyone say "as scientists who predicted travel above 30mph in a train would tresult in aphixiation were wrong, any sttement made about scientists regarding the safety of various modes of ravel will be wrong too". No, they don't, and yes, that is a factual example. Whether you like it or not the argument is a mixture of an ad hom and a negative argument from authority. In other words, wrong, fallacious, whatever. It pretends to be a scientific argument but is not as it doesn't deal with the science that predicts further change linked to CO2 level.
Okay, but what about the specific claim; did 'scientists' make such a claim, and is it comparable to the current claims?
This popped up halfway down the page on Yahoo! wih the search string 'ice age scare global warming'. Really difficult to find reasned discusion... thus sometime my exasperation as I know how easy it is to find stuff out if you're bothered enough, or check out the veracity of claims.
To those not arsed enough to read it, the key points are;
"the results indicate that the long-term trend over the next 20,000 years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooler climate" is a fair example of the claims being made by real scientists in real science mags.
The main report into it concluded
- Establish National climatic research program
- Establish Climatic data analysis program, and new facilities, and studies of impact of climate on man
- Develope Climatic index monitoring program
- Establish Climatic modelling and applications program, and exploration of possible future climates using coupled GCMs
- Adoption and development of International climatic research program
- Development of International Palaeoclimatic data network
... i.e. a call for more research , not a prediction.
And that with modern science examining the additonal data now available it is fair to say;
- The cooling trend from the 40's to the 70's now looks more like a slight interruption of an upward trend (e.g. here). It turns out that the northern hemisphere cooling was larger than the southern (consistent with the nowadays accepted interpreation that the cooling was largely caused by sulphate aerosols); at first, only NH records were available.
- Sulphate aerosols have not increased as much as once feared (partly through efforts to combat acid rain); CO2 forcing is greater. Indeed IPCC projections of future temperature inceases went up from the 1995 SAR to the 2001 TAR because estimates of future sulphate aerosol levels were lowered (SPM).
- Interpretations of future changes in the Earth's orbit have changed somewhat. It now seems likely (Loutre and Berger, Climatic Change, 46: (1-2) 61-90 2000) that the current interglacial, based purely on natural forcing, would last for an exceptionally long time: perhaps 50,000 years.
So essentilly people using this argument are just like Creationists quoting from OriginoftheSpecies and using the fact ideas have changed somewhat and newe data is now available as an excuse to throw the baby out with the bathwater. You might not like that characterisation, in which case feel free to show my argument is at fault.
Note that so far, other than regurgitation of classic anti-change lobby arguments which are easily dismissed ( a bit like Creationists banging on about the 2nd Law), no anti-change supporter has really engaged in the science of the argument.
And that's the biggest clue in the book for me.
So, someone, anyone, talk to me about thescience. It seems a certain side in this discussion wants to swagger around declaiming their rightness and the foolishnehss of the other side of the argument, but aren't prepared to back it up in a proper scientific discussion.
Oh, and I'm away this weekend, so if anyonme does pick the gautlet up, me not replying until Tuesday or Wednesday is no indicator of anything other than spending time with my daughter is more interesting than this.
On my return I will gladly respond to anyone who actually talks about the sciencific arguments.
More reguritated nonsense thatasimple check online would reveal as nonsense will be treated appropriately.