WT "publisher" numbers in the US

by jstalin 14 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

• 

  jstalin

  I was looking at the info on jwic.com and realized the following about the US "publishers" numbers:

  Between 1994 and 2004 the number of US publishers rose from about 900,000 to about 1,000,000. That's about 11% over those ten years, or about 1% compounded annually (well below the population growth rate).

  In addition, between 1994 and 2004 about 392,000 people were baptised. That means the attrition rate between those baptised and those who stay is about 75% over the ten year period .

  Does anyone have the actual publishers numbers for the last ten years for the US? The jwic site only has the graphs and no exact numbers.
• 

  Elsewhere

  Here is an interesting statistic regarding the attrition rate for those born into the WTS:

  http://www.sdaoutreach.org/attritionrate.cfm
• 

  metatron

  What's so suspicious about those publisher numbers is their relationship to baptisms. Nearly all over the world, baptisms have dropped

  in recent years while publisher numbers have gone up slowly. Possible explanation: the number of baptisms tends to be a 'hard' number

  and the number of publishers tends to be 'soft'. You have an actual count of people getting dunked - while anybody can write down anything

  on a field service slip.

  metatron
• 

  sir82

  Met,

  Not so sure it is suspicious. I think it just means that baptisms, while declining, still outpace the JW mortality/turnover rate.

  Example:

  Year 1: At beginning of year: 1,000,000 publishers....2000 baptized, 1000 fade / DF, 500 die --> at end of year, 1,000,500

  Year 2: At beginning of year: 1,000,500 publishers...1800 baptized, 1000 fade / DF, 500 die --> at end of year, 1,000,800

  The number of baptisms is dropping, but the gross count of JWs still increases...until the declining number of baptisms drops below the death/turnover threshold.

  I think we are just about at that point now in the US. And I see nothing happening that will reverse the declining baptism trend.
• 

  Elsewhere

  Just subtract the percentage of deaths in that 75% value and you will have the true value.

  1993	8.8
  1994	8.8
  1995	8.8
  1996	8.8
  1997	8.6
  1998	8.6
  1999	8.8
  2000	8.7
  2001	8.5
  2003	8.3
• 

  jstalin

  Elsewhere... what are those numbers on the right? 8.8, 8.3, etc...
• 

  jstalin

  Ah, I get it... those are approximate death rates... looks like the average death rate in the US is about .8% per year. Using that, a rough estimate of the number of JW deaths between 1994 and 2004 is 80,000. That would mean the actual increase of the number of JWs between 94 and 2004 is 180,000. Therefore, the attrition rate would be lower... about 54%.
• 

  RunningMan

  Don't forget that they have also lowered the threshhold for what constitutes a publisher. Even 15 minutes per month will now put you in the count. So, if they beat the bushes harder, a few more publishers straggle in to the count.
• 

  steve2

  The figures suggest the following:

  The last ten or so years have seen a significant change in the "composition" of those baptised into the Watchtower. In earlier decades most of those baptized were non-JWs who converted to the religion. By contrast, in more recent years most of the baptisms are from those born and raised in the religion - and this latter group's official entry into the religion has not been sufficient to maintain previous decades level of growth rates. Keep in mind, too, that these more recent baptisms are hot on the heels of the marriage and children boom that occurred post 1975. Despite the influx of potential new members, the figures show an inexorable leveling off in numbers.

  What hasn't changed over the decades, though, is the drop-out rate of those raised in the religion: Historically, that has always been high, even among those raised in the religion who eventually get baptised.

  The only reason we seem to notice it more nowadays is because fewer non-JWs are converting to the religion and boosting the numbers.
• 

  metatron

  I don't think it's realistic that the malaise that affects baptisms somehow doesn't affect the publisher numbers. I think it is more likely

  that the numbers would move together - if they had the same credibility, which they don't. This would also agree with the Time or Newsweek

  poll that showed a 4% decrease in people identifying themselves as Witnesses - congregations exaggerate the numbers. There have been

  some countries that reported a small increase in publishers that lost a net number of congregations. The Society is demanding certain

  numbers - and that's what they're getting - numbers, which don't mean much.

  metatron