The "Sunk Cost" Fallacy

by LDH 11 Replies latest jw friends

  • LDH
    LDH

    Silent Watcher made reference to a theory called "sunk cost fallacy." I had not heard of this term, but when I googled, I did get a reference to the very familiar Concorde Theory. If you are not familiar with either, here is a primer.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost

    How many JW's do you know that can't bear to leave the "TRUTH" because of the amount of time, money or effort involved? They have invested so many years of their life, and can not be recovered at any cost. How many have too much false pride to admit they have been wrong for 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 or more years???

    This is referred to as the "Sunk Cost"

    Economists argue that, if you are rational, you will not take sunk costs into account when making decisions. In the case of the movie ticket, there are two possible end results. You will either have:

    1. Paid the price of the ticket and suffered watching a movie that you do not want to see, or;
    2. Paid the price of the ticket and used the time to do something more fun.

    In either case, you have "paid the price of the ticket" so that part of the decision should cancel itself out. If you regret buying the ticket because you do not think the movie is worth the money then your current decision should be based on whether you want to see the movie at all, regardless of what you have paid for it - just like deciding whether you want to go to a free movie. The economist will suggest that since the latter option only involves you suffering in one way (spent money), while the former involves you suffering in two (spent money plus wasted time), the latter is obviously preferable.

    Also note this point:

    Many people, for example, would feel obliged to go to the movie despite not really wanting to, because doing otherwise would be wasting the ticket price; they feel they passed the point of no return. This is sometimes called the sunk cost fallacy. Economists would label this behavior "irrational": It is inefficient because it misallocates resources by depending on information that is irrelevant to the decision being made.

    How many JW don't really want to do the JW-two step anymore, but can't stop dancing because they have passed the point of no return in their emotional investment?!?!

    If you buy a ticket in advance to a movie you find is bad, you have still made a semi-public commitment to watching it. You may feel that you "save face" by sticking it out, a satisfaction you cannot draw if you leave. To leave early is to make your lapse of judgment manifest to strangers, an appearance you may rationally choose to avoid. You may in fact find some amusement in how bad the movie turned out to be, and take pride that you recognise it to be bad.

    Lisa

    Always learning from those evil apostates! Class

  • TallTexan
    TallTexan

    Also known as the "Throwing Good Money After Bad" Fallacy....

    Same goes for relationships - many people won't bail out of a bad relationship b/c of all the time they've already invested.

    I have a lot of respect for people who have been JW's for 30,40,50, or even 60+ years who still get out, instead of staying with the "this is all I've ever known" mindset. That would have to be really hard. I did it for 30 years, but that includes from birth, so those first few years don't count...lol.

  • Carmel
    Carmel

    Is it the same rationale for over-eating at a "all-you-can-eat" buffet? Once you've paid you think you have to "get your money's worth" hence your diet goes out the window....

    carmel

  • yaddayadda
    yaddayadda

    Very interesting. I'd say there indeed is a kind of 'sunk-cost' psychology for why many JW's stay in, mainly the older ones. I was the same, sometimes thinking "but if I leave with my luck Armageddon will come straight after". It's the same with persons who spend years and years wasting money on lotto tickets, they think "I bet my numbers will come up the week I stop buying them".

    It's pretty much the psychology the Society's uses in the Live Forever book in the illustration about a road-map and how a person who has been driving for a long time the wrong way can't bear having to go all the way back, even when shown on their own map how off track they are.

  • LDH
    LDH

    Yadda,

    The lottery tickets are a great example, too.

  • JeffT
    JeffT

    Several years ago on this board I made a comment to the effect that the psychological weight of facing the fact that you've wasted your life washing windows and waiting for the new system was too much to bear. So the loyal dubs keep plodding along hoping that it will happen soon.

    Good article.

  • DannyBloem
    DannyBloem

    Nice thoughts here.

    I know that this Sunk costs works in some ways for me. Like you make or write something, and later it shows that it could be better in a different way. Then people have a hard time convincing me..

    But I think it will not play a too big part in the deccision of many JW's to stay in. It does not a all in my case. I think this is because it is a continues process. People would have a less hard tie leaving the movie if they had to pay for every minute they saw...

    Danny

  • greendawn
    greendawn

    As one grows older it gets harder to get out because of all the time and energy it will take to be reinvested into developing a new life, new relationships and new ideas about life. One tends to play it safe and stay with what is familiar, better the Devil you know than the one you don't know.

  • DannyBloem
    DannyBloem

    just to add, for some older JW's it probably is a reason, although they would name it difefrntly.

    more this is what i always have done, and I do not know anything diffent. They would be scared for a life outside.

    DB

  • metatron
    metatron

    Also called "escalating commitment" in the business world. We're on the same wavelength.

    metatron

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