How many left of 144,000? (page 4)

MsMcDucket

How many? "I tell you, not seven times, but seventy-seven times.* Matthew 18:21-22 (NIV)

So, I think that's 77 times a 144,000. Or is that a figurative figure?

Nathan Natas

Let's ZOOM-IN to look more closely at those bumps:

alt

When reading charts and graphs, it is always important to pay attention to the SCALE of the graph - this might look like a steep decline, but it is only 600 people in 20 years! What is really fascinating about this are the "spikes" from time to time. Verily the Lord moves in mysterious ways, inconsistent with actuarial reality.

james_woods

Absolutely right, Nathan.

This has got to be the weirdest actuarial graphic you can even imagine. If you just took all the veterans of WW1, and drew such a graph, I would expect that you would see a pretty flat slope from 1914 to about 1960 or so with a slow rate of decline, then an accelerating rate of decline 1960 to 1970, and even more pronounced decline 1970 to 1980 and so on. It would have a slow decline at first, then as the group ages and dies off the rate would increase its slope downward until all would be gone by about 2015 or 2020. I once heard that the government thinks there are only a handful (maybe 3 or 4) legitimate veterans of WW1 still alive in the U.S. There would obviously not be peaks and valleys.

In other words, the opposite of what Nathan's graph does. The "partakers" show a rapid decline from 1935 culminating in a very flat valley floor at around 8500 to 9000 for the past 20 or so years. You can also read the "enthusiasm and discouragement level" in the peaks and valleys just like an electrocardiogram.

The implications of this (when the rank & file figure it - if ever) out are ominous. Among other problems, it could bring down: the 1914 chronology, the Great Crowd, the annointed Governing Body, the two-class system, the "sealing" in 1935, and of course the "divine inspiriation" behind all this BS. Time alone has already brought down the "generation" that will see the end on exactly the same actuarial grounds, but that was a LOT easier to explain away with just a word change or two. They will probably have to change a core doctrine and ritual to get past this.

This is a doctrinal "hand grenade" with the pin already pulled which the GB/WTS is holding. It should be pointed out to the Witness general inmate population at every opportunity. I think it is every bit as powerful as 1975, Blood, U.N. or Child Abuse.

James

Nathan Natas

James, that is BRILLIANT!

We need to compile the data on WWI veterans and provide a similar graph.

In this case, a picture is worth 144,000 words!

M.J.

Like I mentioned on another thread, the 1935 number, I think, is irrelevant anyway. The memorial was held in the spring and the GC wasn't announced until the Summer (correct me if I'm wrong). So many of the people who partook in the memorial were re-designated as members of the Great Crowd later in the year. The wild fluctuations around that time might be indicative of the confusion surrounding this. So much for the myth that the GC was revealed as a divine revelation in response to the "earthly hope" that many witnesses started suddenly feeling in 1935.

M.J.

Here's a recent story: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,186776,00.html

There are only 7 known surviving veterans of WWI. And they're all REALLY old.

The point made in the article is that once the last one dies, there will be huge worldwide commemorations.

That'll be a very INTERESTING event, won't it?

blondie

Just a thought, how many people alive in 1914 are still alive today?

james_woods

Blondie, just guessing - but I say (without research) maybe only 2,000,000 to 3,000,000 or so. Maybe a more pertinent figure would be how many who were old enough to be witness baptism qualified age -(say 18 years old). They would have to be at least 110 years old. I cannot imagine there could be anywhere near a million oldsters of 110; and I bet you could put all the qualified witnesses of 110 or over into an ordinary tour bus. Isn't the oldest known person on earth about 124-126 years or so?

Millions now living will never die? Those alive and able to understand the events in 1914 will not pass away before all these things come to pass?

In a pigs eye. That is why the word "generation" got redefined.

Nathan Natas

Here are some interesting tidbits about the generation of 1914 and World War One veterans. I am working on locating more authoritative data about the number of WWI vets alive each year since the end of the ~~world~~ war Meanwhile I've got tid bits...

The world population in 1914 was 1,806,615,000.

(source: http://www.neopage.com/know/worldpop.htm)

2002 World population aged 80 or more 77,138,000. (edited to correct my knuckleheaded mistake)

(source: www.census.gov/ipc/prod/wp02/tabA-07a.pdf)

I think it is reasonable to assume that probably only one third of that number are aged 90 or more. In other words, the likely worldwide population of people aged 90 or more would be less than 26,000,000. This suggests there would be 2,000 people out of a group of 144,000 who survived. A group of, oh, let's say 50,000 would have somewhat less than 1,000 survivors this late in the game.

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About 4.7 million American men and 33,000 women served in the military in WWI. Of those, an estimated 4,800 men and 370 women are alive today, based on projections from the 1990 U.S. Census.

But even those numbers seem high to organizations that would most likely come in contact with them.

According to the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs in Washington, D.C., only 36 WWI women and 779 men are receiving benefits.

(source: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/awards/witnesstowar/vets.html)
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How many World War 1 Vets Still Living?

Here are some estimates and anecdotes from different countries:

In January 2005 that the Dept. of Veterans Affairs estimated about 100 left in the USA.

In Australia on July 7, 2004, there were only 5 (out of the 350,000 who served overseas) veterans left. They range in ages from 104 to 106 years old.

The last Australian veteran who fought in WW1, died Monday 17 October 2005. "Evan Allan died late on Monday night at the age of 106, leaving only one living connection with the 'war to end all wars' - Jack Ross, 106, who enlisted in the Australian Imperial Force in 1918, but who never saw a shot fired in anger."

By November 2004, the French WW1 veterans were 15 (aged from 103 to 109 years old).

There are 4 still alive in Canada.

The last New Zealand WWI Veteran, Victor "Bob" Rudd, died on 20 November 2005 aged 104.

With the Nov 2005 death of Alfred Anderson, there remains only about 8 British WWI veterans. Anderson was the last of the British soldiers to be shipped out in 1914, and the last survivor of the Xmas 1914 truce in no-man's land.

According to an article in the November 2004 in the Washington Times, there are only 44 First World War veterans still alive. A 1997 Veterans of Foreign Wars Magazine article put the number at 1,300 - so that is some indication of the rate their numbers are dwindling. Of course, seven months after the Times article, the number is probably quite a bit lower. None of these veterans can be younger than 100.

As of November 2004 the US VA web page states 23 WWI vets are receiving VA pensions. The same page gives and estimate of 100 living WWI vets nationwide.

In September 2005, there was only one remaining American WWI veteran and there were reports that he was seriously ill. Regretfully, he was soon gone. Jack J. Smith died on September 23, 2005 at age 108. He was the last man standing from World War 1. There are now no surviving veterans.

According to this site below and many others I have read, 66 have died this in 2005 alone (one as recent as october 17th) leaving 88 left. Chances are they will probably all be gone in the next year or two. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surviving_Veterans_of_the_First_World_War

On 4 August 2004, the 90th anniversary of the start of the war, in London there was a ceremony honoring the remaining Brit vets still alive. 23 in England. The four who were at the ceremony were 108, 106, 104, 103. The latter walked with help to lay a wreath at the centotaph.

(source: http://www.faqfarm.com/Q/How_many_WWI_veterans_are_still_alive)

====== end of tidbits & knuckleheaded mistakes =========

How many left of 144,000?

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