Anointed "Remnent" projections

Elsewhere

A person who cannot reveal his/her identity has asked that I post this research regarding how long it is taking for the "Remnent" to die before Armageddon comes.

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A recent JWD posting (http://www.jehovahs-witness.com/11/110850/1.ashx) got me playing with Remnant figures in Excel.

The results are obvious, and frankly not surprising. The trendline is totally messed up from that expected of an aging population. Of course, the faithful will talk about the younger "replacements" replacing those that have fallen away before death (which is pretty wild; how often does an Anointed get DF/DA'd? Ray Franz was front page news. I doubt it happens more than a couple of times per year, world wide... But I digress). The effect of "replacements" should presumably be small; I wonder if JWD's "Mathead" can quantify, based on Actuarial analysis, just how many "replacements" are implied in these figures.

The point is this: a tightly fitting Logarithm trend-line (R^2 = 0.9672) projects the number of Remnant in the year 2114 (*TWO* hundred years after 1914) as 3,352.

I think this is a great talking point to get the JW-zombies to think. Despite the change in "generation" they are still counting on the sharp reduction of Remnant before the Big-A. But the current trend clearly indicates there will still be plenty of Remnant left 108 years from now.

"That trend line must be wrong, that is impossible" the JWs might say. That is the point! The trend-line *IS* impossible... But it is a tightly fitting trend-line of what is *ALREADY* happening. Therefore, what is already happening IS IMPOSSIBLE (or at least, doesn't make any *freaking* sense).

Original XLS File: http://www.davidgladden.com/jw/research/144k/144k.xls

HTML version show below: http://www.davidgladden.com/jw/research/144k/144k.htm

serendipity

Very interesting. But I thought I read on this board that the big wigs at Bethel think there are only 400 or so GENUINE anointed left.

Elsewhere

But I thought I read on this board that the big wigs at Bethel think there are only 400 or so GENUINE anointed left.

I guess the rest are all Insane in the Membrane.

TwoBlackBelts

I met one at my brother in law's engagement party in Western Australia.

I was so tempted to strike up a conversation and quiz her. I wanted to ask" So when God spoke to you.....What did He say?"

luna2

The whole "annointed" thing is pretty whacked. The only thing that makes it viable is the replacement doctrine which allows them to have this floating number that never seems to decrease as the years go by. At least it gives them some time to try to think up some sort of patch for the problem of what happens when the annointed are all gone and nothing happens...no tribulation, no Big A, no new system. Maybe Armegeddon and the new system will become invisible, spiritual events.

plmkrzy

My mother is anointed and was DA'd about 25 years ago for divorcing my father, an elder in the congregation, who was having an affair with a young pioneer sister in our congregation. My mother was DA'd based on a technicality. There was no proof of adultery. After the divorce my father and the young sister got married and were of course DF'd. They were all reinstated a year later and are now living happily ever after in separate congregations.

Quotes

So let me get this straight.

If the current "trend" continues, there will be 3,352 "anointed" in the year 2114. (i.e. 108 years from now)!!!!!!

Perhaps Blondie could give us a quote from WTS about "the number of the Remnant is very small and rapidly shrinking, they are very old, therefore these days left are very, very short".

The above seems to not include a detailed actuarial analysis, which I suppose is fine when you think about it. An actuarial analysis could only tell us what the curve "should" look like, based on known death rates, for a group. But that is only necessary to see what the curve "should" look like. The above seems to simply look at the curve as a trend and let the numbers speak for themselves: the curve could be anything: stock prices, vegetable yields, Coyote population, etc. We don't have to know what the external and internal forces on the group are, because it doesn't matter for a trendline analysis. As long as the trendline fits with a high accuracy (i.e. R^2 close to 1.0) then it is a reasonable trendline and OK to use to predict future values, as long as the external and internal forces don't change radically. So, as long as the "replacement Anointed" dogma holds true, it is reasonable that this trend will continue as predicted.

Hey, let's calculate the year for remnant = 0

(Quotes dusts off his math skills)

Let me see, we want y = 0 = -3924.9 Ln(x) + 23368

Solving for x, x = e^(23368/3924.8) = 385.2659

hhhmmmm... oh, wait. that is number of years after 1950, so 1950 + 385.266 = 2335.266

You heard it from Quotes first! If current trends continue, the Remnant will be reduced to zero in the spring of the year 2335. Hhhhmmm.... springtime, eh? I guess it will be a Memorial time! How appropriate! :)

It's too bad this data only goes back to 1950. It would be great to see that curve all the way back to pre-1935 (the Anointed Selection cut-off year, unless you are a Second-Stringer Replacement).

~Q

P.S. Doesn't "Remnant" sound like we are talking about dicounted, end-of-line rugs and carpeting???

loosie

that will mean there will be a alot of people over 200 years old by the year 2114.

stillajwexelder

1935 will have to be dropped if this trend carries on

greendawn

The whole anointed issue is too vague to be believable, who are these anointed why were they anointed and how do they differ in practice from the R&F JWs?

The FDS has never given satisfactory explanations as to what anointed, spirit directed, or sprit inspired mean. How do they receive their info from God and why is it so often very erroneous?

Anointed "Remnent" projections

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