by poodlehead 10 Replies latest jw friends
I would like to know if anyone has found any data to this affect. The watchtower publishes how many are baptized each year. And how many active members. But never how many leave.
I would think more are leaving than are baptized. But I have no actual numbers to base this on. All I have is what I have observed.
I've seen some older data from some WT report that said approx 1% get disfellowshipped (or disassoc.), mostly for sexual offenses. If that ratio still stands, it would mean some 60,000 each year for that alone.
Your question is about leaving, which could include fading, dying, etc. I doubt there's any way they could tally the faders -- and there are lots right here on this forum with new ones joining, (I suspect) every day.
Fats
I have no figures to back it up, but I am of the opinion that more are leaving than joining these days. I left about 6 months ago myself, and my boyfriend left 6.5 years ago from the same cong. Average attendances then were about 125 - 130. When I left they were struggling to reach 100. Some of the "missing" 30 or so have died or moved, but several have been df'd or da'd. There have been baptisms in that time, mainly jw kids, so it doesn't take a genius to work out that many are leaving, probably far more than the wts would care to admit.
Here are a couple of previous posts on this subject:
According to http://www.jw-media.org/people/statistics.htm, the official figures as of August 2005 show 6,613,829 active members, 247,631 of whom are new baptisms. Overall, there was a 1.3% increase in membership over 2004. But hang on a minute. 247,631 is actually 3.74% of 6,613,829. So what happened to the other 2.44%?
Well, the number of baptisms is not necessarily an accurate indication of the number of new active members, but as "publishers" usually go on to baptism wthin a short period of time (and any anomalies would average out), that shouldn't make a significant difference. If anything, given that many people become "publishers" but never get baptised, the increase in active members should be more than the number of baptisms, but we'll assume it's as near as makes no difference.
The only thing other than defection that should cause these numbers to go down is death. The annual global death rate, according to the CIA World Factbook, is 0.887% so allowing for this, the expected increase is still about 2.86%, well over twice that recorded. This would suggest that, last year, about 1.5% of JWs (around 100,000 people) stopped being active members.
Incidentally, the world's population increased by 1.13% last year, only slightly behind the JWs figure of 1.3%. When you consider that normally a child raised as a JW would be between 10 and 15 before being counted as an active member, and also the fact that 10 to 15 years ago, the world's population was increasing faster than today, we can see just how effective the preaching work really is. It allows the JWs to increase at almost the rate expected by reproduction alone.
I can honestly say, that in the couple of congs ive attended, not many have "fallen " away. A couple got DFs but I felt that the majority stayed in.
Our next town KH, did lose half a dozen elders including their PO. I didnt really think about it much but looking back there must have been something going on within the body.
I left in 2000, prior to that it was fairly rare to hear of anyone leaving or even being DF'd or DA'd in my old congregation.
But since about 2001 the number of people I have been told have either left, been DF'd or DA'd is in to double figures. I get information down the grapevine, from family still in. That so-and-so has gone, or brother X has resigned as an Elder, brother Y has run off with a girl, unmarried sister Z is pregnant, brother A was DF'd for adultery reinstated a few months later, then went and did it again and was DF'd. The congregation has the same number of publishers it did 10 tens years ago.
My son and daughter who DA'd about a year before me, over personal matters, always jokingly say that since we left, the congregation has gone down hill.
I notice that most of those that had left were fairly young that is in the 18 - 30 yr old range, with about 6 or so in the 30 -45 range.
Is this because they are the ones who use the internet and not afraid of the WT like the older generation is.
When you consider that normally a child raised as a JW would be between 10 and 15 before being counted as an active member,
Funky ...
Actually, as soon as a child begins turning in "time" on his/her own timeslip at month-end, the child is counted in the publisher totals.
Remember, publishers come in both baptized and unbaptized flavors. The Society does not differentiate between them when reporting totals.
Rub a Dub
RubaDub:
Actually, as soon as a child begins turning in "time" on his/her own timeslip at month-end, the child is counted in the publisher totals.
My point was that the number of children publishers would lag some years behind the birth rate. It's probably less than the figures I gave, but it doesn't really matter for the main argument.
Remember, publishers come in both baptized and unbaptized flavors. The Society does not differentiate between them when reporting totals.
True, but as they don't report the number of new publishers, the best figure we have to go by is the number baptised. This should be close to the number of new publishers (or should certainly average out very close over a number of years). Children who become publishers easily but never get baptised would actually push the trend in the opposite direction to what we see. It's quite clear that there's a significant attrition rate.
Our KH was losing so many publishers that the territory kept getting reduced. They had to give portions to neighboring KHs. But, the JWs in the former territory were to still attend the same KH. Then, the elders got in trouble with the CO for counting everyone at the meeting in attendance records and not posting it on the announcement board. The MS's had been instructed to even count babies! Apparently and MS had a conscience matter on this and approached the CO in service for advice. Well, suffice to say, that MS took hell from the presiding overseer for ages. Actually, I don't think he even goes to that KH anymore. How long after you are inactive (AKA not turning in service time) before you aren't counted as a publisher of the congregation? I didn't turn in time for over a year and I was still counted. Found that out when mommy and the COs wife dropped by to say "HI." I had to move 2 hrs away to get away from the elder irritation so I suppose I am not counted now because I am out of their territory.
