By the way, just found out tonight that the memorial attendance for this year is 500, 000 less than last year. One of the elders in my congo mentioned this to me. (don't know if this is just the US or worldwide)
What is the Future of the Watchtower Society?
by jwfacts 42 Replies latest watchtower scandals
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jwfacts
You are right Br Konrad. One of my close friends was very shocked when I was d/f so I pointed him to my site to see why I had chosen to leave. I have never hear a peep out of him since, and have no idea if he even read any of it. You can't make them read, and if they do it takes a lot to make it sink in.
However, the internet will have some affect because it is always in front of you. Just as a lot of brothers are really getting into porn because it is always in their faces and too easy to take a peek, so with apostate material, things always flash up and it is so easy to have a quick look. And once you do there is always a chance a seed will take root. My sister started looking at apostate things on the internet because of my d/f, where as she never would have gone and bought a book. She has not converted, but enough impact was made to get her talking to me again. Hallelujah
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AuldSoul
Konrad: The Internet will have very little effect on the WTS.
Wow!
I know for certain that the Governing Body, the Service Desk, the Writing Department, my Circuit Overseer, my father (a local Presiding Overseer), and the entire elder body of the congregation where I grew up disagree with this statement.
While information has always been available, it has not always been easily accessible. You refer to trips to the library, but in order to discover the "truth" from the library you would first have to question The Truth™ and pore through scores of reference books. Even then, unless you know someone who has all the publications from the old Zion's Watchtowers forward, and the time to read them, you will not find out the truth about The Truth™ beyond what the Proclaimers book tells you.
To find out from Google, you need only type in some aspect of The Truth™ (without questioning it at all) and you will be presented with reams of the "truth" as a result.
Konrad: Cognitive dissonance removes almost any possibility of being affected by conflicting information.
I disagree. I personally know of at least 5 people I have affected by offering conflicting information. Two are posters here. One was approaching baptism. One was a Ministerial Servant. One was the wife of a friend. There are no doubt many more being affected by what we type here.
Here is the problem the Internet presents for the WTS: In times past, the Watchtower's library was considered a convenient source of information on Spiritual topics and if it did not have an answer to a specific concern there was no convenient way to find out whether others had had the same concern. In fact, it would be very unlikely to occur to any JW to go to the Public Library and find a reference that addressed their concern, and they would be terribly unlikely to locate such a reference if they did go to the library (JWs are a fringe religious group).
Now, such information is conveniently available through a medium that people are becoming more accustomed to using every day as a resource for information. For instance, my wife wanted to find out what happened to each cast member of the old television show Good Times. Where would she look in the Public Library for such information, Konrad? She found out about each cast member within 30 minutes, total. Through Google. If you don't see why the convenience of information is such a significant difference, in my opinion it can only be that you don't want to see.
Respectfully,
AuldSoul -
Konrad West
AuldSoul, I'm not saying the Internet will have no effect, I'm simply saying its effect will be limited. Yes, it's much more convenient and so much more accessible, but the my point is that generally JWs are not affected by information that conflicts with their beliefs.
I suggest you read some of research on cognitive dissonance; it's helps explain why most JWs can easily reject convincing "apostate" information. Witnesses come across information that conflicts with their beliefs everyday, but they don't lose their faith over it, they simply filter it out.
However, when a person is ready, that information has a huge impact. Very often, this is when a person already has some doubts or disagreement with the truth, which allows to consider information that would otherwise be rejected.
I think the Internet will and already does significantly help those who have doubts to discover a lot of information quickly, which will undoubtedly speed up the process of leaving. However, most JWs aren't open to information that conflicts with their beliefs, regardless of how easily accessible it is. -
AuldSoul
However, most JWs aren't open to information that conflicts with their beliefs, regardless of how easily accessible it is.
Whereas, I believe every JW has some huge issue with the doctrine that they keep suppressed in their everyday conversations. And I believe that the ease of research afforded by the Internet will increase the likelihood of them accidentally finding information about many other issues they have never even considered before.
Using myself as an example, I considered myself a JW even though I both believed and taught that Jesus is my mediator. I did not realize that believing and teaching this disqualified me as a JW until...I discovered information about the UN/DPI Associate membership on the UN's Web Site, then I (quickly) found out that the WTS teaches that Jesus is not the mediator for any except the remnant of the 144,000.
Had I only discovered the UN/DPI issue I might never have left, I might have stayed and been troubled. As it is, within a few days I uncovered dozens of things I had been lied to about. I did not have an opportunity to allow cognitive dissonance to work its magic on me because, and only because, of the speed with which the information hit me. This is different than what a library affords. It will have a huge impact.
Respectfully,
AuldSoul -
Gamaliel
jwfacts,
I like your initial comments, especially. I'm sure most of us can imagine some scenarios that would "speed it up in its due time" but I just ran an Excel spreadsheet projection for how long it would take to diminish the JW's with a continued 1% loss starting this year, and each year for the next several.
I expect that a 1% loss will be the case in the next yearbook, unless they can baptize and reactivate an extra 60,000 more than usual. Or unless there is another internationally publicized terrorist attack of the kind in 2001.
Disappointing as it may seem, a 1% loss every year for the next 50 years still leaves them with over 3.5 million active members. 100 years from now they would still have well over 2 million. They wouldn't be down to 1 million until the year 2184, which is 178 years from now. (A 5% loss per year would do the same in only 35 years, by 2041.)
Of course it's ridiculous to think they could sustain such a linear string of straight losses. Something would happen to re-enliven their niche in the religious market, or the losses would produce extra depression and questions about whether they truly had Jehovah's blessing, and would force the religion to re-create itself.
The real problem, I think, is that things can easily happen in the world that would make a 1 million person church jump right back up quickly to a 10 million person church all over again. It's happened with many religious and quasi-religious groups with much stranger teachings than JWs.
They have proved to be quite flexible with doctrines, although at the moment they believe in a precarious 1914 doctrine and think it has to hold out. But it won't make ANY sense in 2041, if not before. That's a vulnerability. Trinity and Hell are not vulnerabilities. External pressure from "opposers" highlighting shifting doctrinal information and bad publicity over medical misrepresentation, judicial committe fiascos, shunning and pedophilia and things like this will keep chipping away, especially in the financially secure countries.
I think they have latched onto an interesting niche of religious believers. It's a niche that is interested in spiritual materialism rather than a purely spiritual life. It attracts those who don't feel quite worthy to stand directly in front of God in heaven, but understand that they will have their fleshly desires fulfilled (but perhaps without sex) forever in a paradise of delights. They can thus believe they are humble and godlike while actually being quite haughty and self-righteous. (That is, from perspective of thinking that only they will deserve God's reward of their works by finally satisfying every desire of the eyes.) Making the "not quite worthy" feel worthy is the job of a lot of religion out there, but few religions approach that spiritual "market" or "niche" with such an obvious dual-class system that makes the members easily understand that there is an ideal place for them.
So I would agree that the vast majority are going to be in it for the long haul, no matter the bumps. And if we have relatives and friends there, our best bet is to offer our friendship and support, even as they routinely reject it, so that we might be there for them when and if they finally see the need for it.
Gamaliel -
jwfacts
I think they have latched onto an interesting niche of religious believers. It's a niche that is interested in spiritual materialism rather than a purely spiritual life. It attracts those who don't feel quite worthy to stand directly in front of God in heaven, but understand that they will have their fleshly desires fulfilled
Gamaliel,
Interesting comment. The WTS opens mostly when witnessing with the concept of paradise earth, and so they do attract a niche of people from Witnessing that prefer the concept of earth to heaven. These people do not want to give that up at any cost, I have a friend that is a classic example of this.
This is not necessarily such a strong desire in those raised as JW's and that is why 2/3 of these kids drift away. To start to grow again the WTS does need to get its message of paradise out a lot more efficiently than the ineffective and out dated door to door method it currently pushes.
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uninformed
Whereas, I believe every JW has some huge issue with the doctrine that they keep suppressed in their everyday conversations. And I believe that the ease of research afforded by the Internet will increase the likelihood of them accidentally finding information about many other issues they have never even considered before.
Using myself as an example, I considered myself a JW even though I both believed and taught that Jesus is my mediator. I did not realize that believing and teaching this disqualified me as a JW until...I discovered information about the UN/DPI Associate membership on the UN's Web Site, then I (quickly) found out that the WTS teaches that Jesus is not the mediator for any except the remnant of the 144,000.
Had I only discovered the UN/DPI issue I might never have left, I might have stayed and been troubled. As it is, within a few days I uncovered dozens of things I had been lied to about. I did not have an opportunity to allow cognitive dissonance to work its magic on me because, and only because, of the speed with which the information hit me. This is different than what a library affords. It will have a huge impact.
Respectfully,
AuldSoulAuldSoul,
I think that your line of reasoning on this thread is correct.
I have highlighted this quote of yours because it is almost a mirror image of what happened with me and my family.
Konrad has some good points, and it is true that there will probably be no "crash" of the WT (damn it anyway), but I believe that there is a growing loss of faith and confidence in the org.
My wife and I were DF'd first part of this month for our stand agains the Wt re the UN/Ngo involvement.
Sure enjoy your posts.
Brant Jones
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jwfacts
Two large doctrinal issues for my mother is that the JWs used to worship Jesus, and that Jesus is not her mediator. She knows this and many other issues, such as 607 and the UN. She knows that elders are appointed that are gross sinners, and that doctrines are wrong yet still is convinced this is the true religion, and more strangely that it is directed by Gods Holy spirit.
Unfortunately that is the power of cognitive dissonance. The internet is great aiding provide info to those that are not content, but cog diss still needs to be dealt with. For that reason more research needs to be done and freely available offering people options to go to. The WHERE ELSE WOULD I GO?, needs a satisfactory answer for many JWs in order to give their minds something else to take hold of. And even then, many people do not want to admit they were conned and wasted their lives for a lie.
More than just info is needed, so is strength of character.
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AuldSoul
More than just info is needed, so is strength of character.
In the case of the pillars, I agree completely. However, I know many JWs who are not JWs...they just go through the motions. If there is nothing much invested, there is less risked.
many people do not want to admit they were conned and wasted their lives for a lie.
Which is why the demise will be hardest for those who have invested the most.
But we all know that the 4-12 hour publisher who never studies for the meetings, has marital problems, arrives late, and disappears after the closing prayer is the average JW. This person wasn't convinced it was the truth from the Bible, they were convinced it was the truth by their Study Conductor and the book used (Live Forever or Knowledge). But Bible Studies are falling off fast in the devloped world. Bible Students now have access to the Internet.
We also know the youths whose fathers are elders or ministerial servants (or not a JW) who now have access to the Internet in their school library, the Public Library, and at home. These kids have to keep getting baptized for the organization to maintain itself and they haven't got very many years invested in the religion.
The WTS is rightly terrified. 1% loss is tiny compared to what they believe they are facing in the next few years. They lose about 2.5% to disfellowshipping/disassociation. If the growth (pool of new recruits) dries up that 2.5% becomes straight loss.
Even if the numbers of publishers stay high in developing countries for a while but the dollars dry up to reflect weakened confidence (due to increased knowledge), the capabilities of the organization are severely limited. How do you keep a congregation running with no money coming in? They are already begging for more contributions. They are slashing costs right and left (paperback books and Bibles?), sending home costs to the organization that it used to accept (Bethelites who were told to consider it a "lifelong career"?), and other things that indicate they are strapped for liquid assets.
There will be a lot of Bethelites returning dejectedly to their congregations in sore straits, that will wake some up, who will wake others up. This is a meme thing, this information availability, and it is just starting to work its magic in this cult. But it is magic.
Respectfully,
AuldSoul