The number of jw is reducing?

Nicolas

i read an article on watchtower observer about it http://watchtower.observer.org/apps/pbcs.dll/article?Date=20010621&Category=JWANDSOCIETY10&ArtNo=10621002&Ref=AR
While, I was a jw, I remember that they told us that when the number of jw who go out will be bigger than the number of new jw who enter, it will be the Great Tribulation. Do you think that the GB will try to enter this idea in the mind of the jw? I wish that instead of it, this religion will become an almost dead religion like the baptism...

ballistic

yes, the figures are decreasing in the "Western" world but increasing in the "third world" following the same sales pattern as that of cigarrettes.
interesting that they mention for elders to look after their flock!!!!!! ha hah ahaha hha ha ahh ha lol lol lol
"go to the samaritans they told me, honest!"

Jeremy Bravo

I remember reading in Crisis of Conscience that the number of JW's world wide was dropping, which presumably led to the 1975 fiasco. He has a chart in the book showing their growth through the 1960's and 70's. Since i do not have the book handy, I will have to post a reference later.

If whoever told you this was correct in their statement, the world would have ended around 1967. **Jer**

ballistic

jeremy the figures did start to recover after 1975 had been forgotten about by Joe Jehovah's Witness.
But the trend is downward now in the western world.

A most excellent site for the current stats is * http://www.jwic.com/stat.htm

Marvin Shilmer

Trivia:

Late in 1995 the WTS changed its long held "generation" teaching. With what effect?

The 15 years (81-95) preceding this changed witnessed an average net* increase of 17,286 publishers per year.

The 5 years (96-00) since this change have witnessed an average net increase of -2,695 publishers per year. (Yes, this is a negative number, which makes this a net decrease)

Forecast for the 2001 service year is a net loss of 8,450 publishers. This would bring the 6 year (96-01) net increase in publishers to an average of -3,654. (Or a net decrease of 3,654)

*Net is based on published numbers with a 1 percent adjustment for death.

[Edited to clarify these figures represent growth statistics of the United States branch]

bluesapphire

Marvin, I don't understand your figures. How can there be a *net decrease when there continues to be an increase in JW's yearly - small though it may be.

Marvin Shilmer

How can there be a *net decrease when there continues to be an increase in JW's yearly - small though it may be.

Figures were based on a net loss/gain based on death rate and total average publishers from year to year. But my spread sheet had a critical flaw, which was my mistake.

However, based on death rate and publisher totals, this does not change that the average annual number of net gain has diminished considerably over the past 5 years. My figure of 17,286 average publishers added per year for 81-95 should have been 24,570. My figure of -2,695 average publishers gained per year for 96-00 should have been 6,600. As an average figure, this represents a loss per annum of 17,970 for 96-00 compared with the 10 years previous to 96-00.

The question of increase of decrease is a relative one. Here is another perspective: how has the population growth of JWs compare to general population growth? Have JWs been gaining or loosing ground as a percentage of population? Have they been growing, remaining steady, or shrinking?

In 1998 the average number of JW publishers was .03542% of the general USA population. In 1999 that figure dropped to .3457% of the general USA population.

For the average number of JW publishers to have remained steady with the population, the 1999 figure of average publishers would have had to be 952,761. Instead the 1999 figure was 940,650. That represents a net decrease over the preceding year of 12,111. Where did the 12,111 people go?

About 1% died, on the average. That accounts for 9,442 publishers—they died. The remaining 2669 represents the statistical number of JWs that became inactive.

So, during the 1999 service year, if we accept the 32,585 persons who were baptized as representative of the number that became active publishers that year, then the statistical 32,585 was 12,111 short of offsetting the amount of publishers that died together with the number that became inactive. That means, statistically, there were 32,585 who became publishers and 44,689 JWs that stopped publishing. That is a net loss of 12,111.

If we assume the 9,442 publishers who died, that leaves 35,247 that lived but became inactive. We have no way of knowing how many of that number came from the 32,585 who were baptized the same year, but probably quite a few did. Nevertheless, we know the 32,585 were not enough to make up for the 35,247 that lived but stopped publishing.

If you are wondering what this means for other years during the period of 96-2000, here is a breakdown:

96, net gain of: -495

97, net gain of: 6,080

98, net gain of: -12,111

99, net gain of: -28,005

00, net gain of: -11,357

Figures above represent loss/gain in relation to population.

Sorry folks for my bad math earlier.

jayhawk1

Thanks Marvin for the number crunching. I am glad there are people out there like youself to put this in perspective.

"Hand me that whiskey, I need to consult the spirit."-J.F. Rutherford

anewperson

Lay it on the line:

1) What do you believe the % for the U.S. branch will be when put in the January 2002 Watchtower?

2) What's your estimation for the % worldwide in the U.S. branch that will be in that Jan 2002 Watchtower?

Moxy

here again are my stats showing percentage of growth. yellow line is worldwide population for comparison.

and here are the worldwide/USA pub averages with the dotted line showing a second derivative projection. the projection shows a .2% increase worldwide this year and for USA, nearly 0%.

mox

The number of jw is reducing?

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