peak oil?

PrimateDave

I know we have some intelligent people here, so I thought I might ask what you think about 'peak oil'.
I became familiar with the concept after watching a video a year and a half ago called "The End of Suburbia".
It was strange at the time because I remembered reading a 2003 Awake! article on oil:

*** g03 11/8 p. 6 Oil—How Do We Get It? ***
HOW DID PETROLEUM FORM?
The opinion that has prevailed among most scientists since the 1870’s is called the biogenic theory. This “holds that biological debris buried in sediments decays into oil and natural gas in the long course of time and that this petroleum then becomes concentrated in the pore space of sedimentary rocks in the uppermost layers of the [Earth’s] crust.” This process then produces petroleum, whose main components are hydrocarbons—that is, hydrogen and carbon. However, since the 1970’s this theory has at times been challenged by some scientists....
“The abiogenic theory holds that hydrocarbons were a component of the material that formed the earth, through accretion of solids, some 4.5 billion years ago.” According to this theory, the elements of petroleum have been deep in the earth since the earth’s formation.
[Footnote]
Awake! does not take a position on differing theories. It merely reports them.

There are some web sites and books out there that paint a pretty grim picture for the 21st century based on the concept of 'peak oil'.
On one extreme there is the 'dieoff' crowd that basically says that the human race is in the process of overshoot due to overpopulation and natural resouce depletion. According to them, technology and loads of cheap energy (petroleum) has allowed humanity to exceed the natural carrying capacity of the planet. Once the supplies of cheap energy go past the maximum sustainable level (peak) and begin to decline, then the die off begins until population stabilizes at a lower level.

The other extreme is the 'cornucopist' crowd. They say that there is more than enough petroleum to meet the world's energy needs well into the future. They say that technology will continue to advance to enable continued economic growth and prosperity.

Any thoughts?

Dave

james_woods

The awake magazine has an axe to grind on this subject.

If it can be proved (and IMHO it can) that petroleum is far older than what they believe is the maximum age of plant life (a few thousand years) - then petroleum just simply cannot be coming from plant life.

Also, they just love to poke "worldly technology" with a pointed stick in the eye. One more sign of the times - we are running out of oil.

As J.R. Ewing told Bobby on Dallas - Oh come onl, Bobby - we've been running out of oil ever since they drilled the first well...

On the other hand, a C.O. told me oil came from squished dinosaur guts.

mavie

The awake magazine has an axe to grind on this subject.
If it can be proved (and IMHO it can) that petroleum is far older than what they believe is the maximum age of plant life (a few thousand years) - then petroleum just simply cannot be coming from plant life.

I'm not so sure there is an axe to grind here. JW understanding of the creation of the Earth as told in Genesis chapter 1 allows for the Earth, and plant life, to be billions of years old. At one time, some in the org believed the creative days mentioned in Genesis were limited to 6000 years, however now the creative 'days' can mean something closer to an 'age'.

Warlock

Dave:

If you go to Lifeaftertheoilcrash.net, you will find a lot of info on "Peak Oil".

This is the way I look at it. I doesn't make any difference whether you or I believe it. As long as the "right people" believe it, you can make money off it.

Warlock

sir82

Sorry to go briefly off topic, but...

[Footnote]

Awake! does not take a position on differing theories. It merely reports them.

I love this!

Awake "doesn't take a position" on theories? So, it neither espouse nor denies, oh, say, the theory of EVOLUTION!?!

Does no one proof read this drivel?

james_woods

Mavie, maybe we will need Blondie to straighten both of us out here, but I was taught the creative days were 7000 years each the whole time I was in until 1981. That was why the end of the world was logically 1975, because that was the end of the 6000 years into the last creative day and the 1000 year rule of Christ just fit right in so nicely.

As I understand it, they now think that the creative days are "several thousand years each" (no explanation for the previous teaching whatsoever) and they make fun of the fundie churches that say they are a day (which incidentally is what a literal interpretation would cause one to believe).

I think their hemming and hawing on this creative day thing is a way to weasel out of some of the ridiculous chronology teachings past.

James

james_woods

I have reached the 500 mark of my symbolic post lifetime, and I have about a half a tank of octane 93 in the vette...

James

under_believer

mavie is correct. The Witnesses are what are known as "old Earth creationists." This allows their members to subscribe to whatever theory of oil creation they want. There may be an axe to grind among certain Watchtower writers, but the old earth doctrine prevents them from making it official.

As far as peak oil itself, well, the oil supply is definitely dwindling--this is not a controversial statement and is pretty much universally accepted. Even the oil-drunk Bush Administration acknowledges that. What happens as it continues to dwindle and prices go up--and how long that dwindling and inflation takes to come to full fruition--is anybody's guess. For an extreme peak oil viewpoint I suggest reading the blog Clusterfuck Nation, but keep in mind that Kunstler, the writer of that blog, DEFINITELY has an axe to grind. He's a very good writer, though, which makes reading him a pleasure whether you agree or not.

PrimateDave

Hi Warlock,
Yes, I'm pretty familiar with many of the Peak Oil web sites like Global Public Media and From the Wilderness. I try to stay objective and take everyone's view with a grain of salt. They cite much scientific evidence, but I am wary of their timelines. Once bitten, twice shy?
Learning about peak oil led me to look further into where mankind might be headed. I began to think about what a sustainable human society might be like and read some books on Permaculture (Permanent Agriculture). There is so much to learn about.
On a side note, the permaculture movement is critical of 'industrial' landscapes such as manicured lawns. I remember seeing a photo of one of the WTS new facilities this past year with its great expanses of flat green grass. Truly an ecological wasteland. It struck me how the Society was so far out of the loop. Industrial Religion(TM).

Dave

PrimateDave

Hi Under,
Yes, I check up on Kunstler's site from time to time. I read his book The Long Emergency last year. Some of it is good stuff, but he tends to go off the deep end predicting the breakup of the United States. He does make a good point about the USA not having a decent rail network.

Dave

peak oil?

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