XJW critical mass?

by IP_SEC 27 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  Fatfreek

  Okay, I promise nothing more than some entertainment here. KatieKitten raised a good question, "I would be very interested to find out if there were more that had fallen out than are currently in. I'm not sure if theres a way of finding out." Then JwFacts cited some statistics that are interesting, as well. "Stats I have seen are that 1.3% of JWs get d/f every year and only about 1/3 return."
  

  Then, there's that chart over at Wikipedia and I'm not sure who is responsible, but it shows a chart of publisher numbers for the years 1945 through 2005. Using that chart I extracted (interpret to mean, grossly guess) their numbers for each year, then placed them into a spreadsheet, which appears below. Once there, it's a simple matter of tallying the columns.

  Oh, yes, use those stats that JwFacts cited as our basis of the DF'd that have remained outside. Remember, there are many assumptions here. Plus, there is no accounting for attrition. And, remember, publisher counts are at the mercy of the Watchtower Society and we know they'll take every opportunity to tweak numbers their way. Recall, they taught us it's okay to lie to the enemy.

  The table tells us that since 1945, some 1.4 million have left the organization and stayed out. Hey, since 1990, over a million have got (and stayed) out. I doubt attrition plays a big role in that number. Fats.

  Percent Disfellowshipped, assumed constant						1.30
  Two thirds of those remain out, the factor used here						0.87
  Year	Members	DFd	Remain DFd	Year	Members	DFd	Remain DFd
  2006	6,600,000	85,800	74,286	1975	1,901,250	24,716	21,399
  2005	6,400,000	83,200	72,035	1974	1,800,625	23,408	20,267
  2004	6,275,000	81,575	70,628	1973	1,690,000	21,970	19,022
  2003	6,146,875	79,909	69,186	1972	1,590,000	20,670	17,896
  2002	6,011,719	78,152	67,664	1971	1,498,750	19,484	16,869
  2001	5,900,000	76,700	66,407	1970	1,416,094	18,409	15,939
  2000	5,762,500	74,913	64,859	1969	1,290,000	16,770	14,519
  1999	5,606,250	72,881	63,101	1968	1,225,000	15,925	13,788
  1998	5,435,625	70,663	61,180	1967	1,168,125	15,186	13,148
  1997	5,350,000	69,550	60,216	1966	1,115,781	14,505	12,559
  1996	5,137,500	66,788	57,825	1965	1,030,000	13,390	11,593
  1995	4,923,750	64,009	55,419	1964	997,500	12,968	11,227
  1994	4,710,938	61,242	53,023	1963	958,750	12,464	10,791
  1993	4,500,000	58,500	50,649	1962	915,781	11,905	10,307
  1992	4,282,500	55,673	48,201	1961	900,000	11,700	10,130
  1991	4,072,500	52,943	45,838	1960	842,500	10,953	9,483
  1990	3,870,000	50,310	43,558	1959	786,875	10,229	8,857
  1989	3,630,000	47,190	40,857	1958	732,813	9,527	8,248
  1988	3,442,500	44,753	38,747	1957	670,000	8,710	7,541
  1987	3,262,500	42,413	36,721	1956	620,000	8,060	6,978
  1986	3,095,781	40,245	34,844	1955	570,625	7,418	6,423
  1985	2,880,000	37,440	32,416	1954	522,031	6,786	5,876
  1984	2,722,500	35,393	30,643	1953	470,000	6,110	5,290
  1983	2,595,625	33,743	29,215	1952	422,500	5,493	4,755
  1982	2,487,344	32,335	27,996	1951	376,250	4,891	4,235
  1981	2,250,000	29,250	25,325	1950	326,719	4,247	3,677
  1980	2,215,000	28,795	24,931	1949	280,000	3,640	3,152
  1979	2,162,500	28,113	24,340	1948	237,500	3,088	2,673
  1978	2,097,188	27,263	23,605	1947	178,125	2,316	2,005
  1977	2,110,000	27,430	23,749	1946	133,594	1,737	1,504
  1976	2,005,000	26,065	22,567	1945	110,000	1,430	1,238
  						1,663,234	1,440,028
• 

  Fatfreek

  Oh, here's the link to that Wikipedia chart.
  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:JWStats.png
  

  
  
• 

  IP_SEC

  Hey FF. Do those figures include mortality rate?
• 

  AK - Jeff

  I can't put much confidence in that chart [ apologies to the chartmaker here ] .

  Mortality does not seem to be included, inactivity is not included, and so on. It is not as simple as using a constant factor of those disfellowshipped - that could be at best an average anyway wouldn't it?

  One factor that needs to be considered is as mentioned in another context; the ability to get facts and education about the 'truth'. Many witnesses and witness families go thru periods of 'inactive' status, or 'fall away' for a time. Used to be that was often due to severe doubts. The typical end result was a 'return to the organization', with nothing really changing except for the brief time they were 'out'. I believe that many of these 'weak' and 'inactive' ones will now have within thier grasp accurate understanding of why there was not the love they expected, or doctrine that seemed so out of sync with Christianity. The internet may contain the 'trigger' that allows the critical mass to be reached.

  Jeff
• 

  Fatfreek

  IP_Sec, I incorrectly used the word attrition instead of mortality. Sorry. But that's what I meant.
  Attrition: "An estimate of the number of jobs each year that will become available because of retirement and death for 2004–2008, according to projections by the Socio-Economic Analysis and Evaluation Directorate of the Department of Human Resources and Skills Development Canada (HRSDC), Quebec Region, based on an economic scenario developed in summer 2004."

  AK - I hope I didn't pretend that the report was worth much. Sorry you appeared to take it more seriously.

  Fats
• 

  perthwogboy

  Many witnesses and witness families go thru periods of 'inactive' status, or 'fall away.'

  According to those figures in the chart for the amount of DF'd publishers each year, I would assume you would also have to factor additionally (whether it is already accounted for?), the amount of JW's who have chosen to disassociate themselves, whether officially, or have opted to "drift" away undetected.

  Whatever the case, the exposure of the internet, would have led many JW's to be tempted to see outside the "bubble", possibly sowing seeds of doubt about the WTS and acting on their suspicions.
• 

  jwfacts

  Good chart Fats.

  It is based on a lot of assumptions, so I have been thinking of doing a chart that factors inactive ones etc. Simply compare the number baptised each year and compare it to the number on increase in publishers, less attrition. This gives a very accurate indication of the rate of decline.

  For example, in 2005 there were about 250000 baptised, 60000 died if attrition is 1% but only 80,000 extra publishers. That indicates that 110000 went inactive. (this figure removes the variable of how many get d/f and how many get reinstated)

  For 2005 45% of the number baptised stopped preaching. (coincidently the same as the divorce rate.) That is a very significant figure. I would like to see how that figure compares to times past.
• 

  Fatfreek

  ...I have been thinking of doing a chart that factors inactive ones etc.

  Good idea, JWF. Let 'er rip. We'll all be anxious to see it.
  

  Fats