Service Year Comparison 2004/5 - 2005/6

by TheListener 10 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  TheListener

  I apologize but I posted this on another thread and then decided it really deserved its own thread. Yes, I know that is only my opinion but what else have I to go on?

  Thanks to a pm someone sent me we can now compare 10 months of the current service year to last year's service report. thank you so much for the pm.

  2005-2006 service year
  Month	Pubs.	Bptz
  Sep-05	1,001,583	1,612
  Oct-05	997,714	2,152
  Nov-05	989,543	2,683
  Dec-05	1,008,905	1,635
  Jan-06	1,001,150	1,534
  Feb-06	1,001,469	1,109
  Mar-06	1,010,868	1,589
  Apr-06	1,008,967	2,609
  May-06	1,011,524	2,478
  Jun-06	995,639	2,864
  Jul-06
  Aug-06
  Avg.	1,002,736	2,027
  Total		20,265
  2004-2005 service year
  Month	Publs.	Bptz
  Sep-04	990,551	1,791
  Oct-04	993,476	2,680
  Nov-04	990,086	2,331
  Dec-04	997,250	1,923
  Jan-05	990,365	1,419
  Feb-05	984,747	1,441
  Mar-05	992,732	2,056
  Apr-05	1,004,310	2,543
  May-05	991,450	2,009
  Jun-05	973,710	2,737
  Jul-05	996,368	5,323
  Aug-05	1,035,082	2,126
  Avg.	995,011	2,365
  Total		28,379

  What do we see?

  A couple things:

  1. In august of 2005 there was a major jump in the number of publishers reporting. Hmmm, sounds suspiciously like a "get out the vote" campaign. Notice that in September 2005 (the first month of the following service year) the number dropped some 34,000.

  2. With only two months to go they are only averaging about 7,000 more than last year. Of course, with the sudden surge of publishers that happens every August we'll see that average raise somewhat.

  3. The average baptisms are down. They need to baptize about 8,000 people in July and August to meet the same growth rate as last year. The growth rate was less than 1% last year and showed as 0% in the yearly report. They may just make getting a 0% again or maybe just maybe get a -1%. That would be an exciting announcement. And yes, you are correct July and August occur during prime District Convention months so the number of baptisms should increase dramatically. Even with that, by reviewing previous years, there isn't a precedent that could find in recent years (post 1995) where 8,000 individuals were baptized in two consecutive months. We'll see.

  I don't see the society posting any huge gains and dramatic successes this year. Am I missing something?
• 

  sspo

  You're not missing anything, we all know that those that are getting baptized are primarily young one, 10-15 years of age, at that age it is more to please the parents than a true dedication to God.

  With all the preaching work going on, millions of devoted hrs., there is very little increase.
• 

  Joker10

  I don't see the society posting any huge gains and dramatic successes this year. Am I missing something?

  Yes.

  Publishers were up by 21,929, or 2.3%, in June- the highest gain for any month so far. They almost reported one million on a month that historically reports the lowest.

  Compared to the samemonths last year, they are up by 12,000.
• 

  Jim_TX

  Am I missing something?

  Yes. This next year, they are going to buy better software that will allow them to use decimal points. This will let them show gains of 0.3% or 0.5% rather than having to show them as 0%.

  Regards,

  Jim TX

  (P.S. Just making it up... don't have a clue.)
• 

  seawolf

  With all the preaching work going on, millions of devoted hrs., there is very little increase.

  With all the hours, on average, that have to be spent per person baptized, it's amazing how much time is wasted. I know where I'm at they seem to bring one new one in about every five years, and those seem to not last too long before they split and leave.
• 

  Zico

  Obviously more of the current publishers are now reporting, but they're getting less baptisms, which is the main thing.
  
  Last year they had an average of 995,000ish publishers, but only managed 28,000 baptisms. That's only 2.8% of publishers who manage to 'help' someone on to baptism, and most of them are kids!
• 

  Check_Your_Premises

  Listener,

  Sept 04 to June 05 shows 20,930 baptized.

  Sept 05 to June 06 shows 20,265 baptized.

  100% - (20265/20930)*100 = -3.18% growth in baptized

  (did I do that right?)

  CYP
• 

  Check_Your_Premises

  by the same reckoning the number of pubs will increase by about 1%...
• 

  Check_Your_Premises

  has anyone done any comparisons of number publishers and number baptized side by side.

  I figure the number baptized would lag the number of publishers by a year or so.

  CYP
• 

  sir82

  Of course, comparing "baptisms" to "number of publishers reporting" is a bit of apples & oranges comparing, but there is a definite correlation.

  Most typically, a person is an "unbaptized publisher" for only a year or so, sometimes less, sometimes more (in the case of young children). But in general, it's probably reasonable to assume that there is a constant "one year lag" between when a person first reports field service, vs. when he is baptized.

  I find it interesting that 28,000 were baptized in the past service year, but the average number of publishers only increased by 7000 this year. I.e., 21,000 stopped publishing in the past year.

  If we assume a 1% mortality rate, that would mean that about 10,000 JWs died. Meaning about 11,000 were either D-F'ed, disassociated, or became inactive.

  So for every 28 persons beginning to preach, 10 persons die and 11 quit or are "fired". Not a very spectacular "growth report"!

  And it seems that the number of baptisms is continuing to decline. I'd make a wager that the number of deaths and DF / DA / inactives will not be decreasing any time soon....it's just a matter of time until the "growth rate" becomes negative.

  And what's even more staggering is that 1/4 of the JWs in the US are in Spanish-speaking congregations, where the growth is far more robust. They are hemorraging English-speaking members (i.e. the wealthier ones) at an alarming rate, and seem to have no clue how to stop it, other than continuing the beatings.