At the time of the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, a plan (Operation Downfall) had already been drawn up to invade the Japanese home islands. "Downfall" was to be in two parts: - Operation "Olympic", scheduled for November 1945, was to capture the southern part of Kyushu, Japan's southernmost island. -Operation "Coronet" - to begin early the following year - was to take place on the Kanto Plain area (near Tokyo) of Japan's central island, Honshu. Casualty predictions varied widely, but all the predictions agreed on one thing: - i.e. that casualties would be extremely high! - The Joint Chiefs of Staff had estimated that Olympic alone (i.e. the capture of Southern Kyushu) would result in between 456 000 and 1 200 000 casualties - depending on whether the operation could be sewn up in 90 days, or whether the battle became more protracted. - General McArthur's staff estimated that Olympic would result in 125 000 casualties after 120 days of fighting. - General Marshall's staff used the previous year's Battle of Luzon as a model, and came up with an estimate of 70 000 casualties for Operation Olympic. - Admiral Leahy's staff, on the other hand used the recently concluded Battle for Okinanwa as a model (a battle that had cost America 70 000 casualties),and estimated 268 000 casualties just to secure Southern Kyushu. (As it turned out, the Japanese had correctly deduced the American plans, and had set their defences up accordingly - guaranteeing that the casualties would have been on the higher side of the estimates!). These casualty predictions were for just one phase of one operation - no one was claiming that the capture of Southern Kyushu would finish the war with Japan. While by that point Japan's navy and air forces were largely out of the equation (what hadn't been destroyed outright was immobilised through lack of fuel)- it still had a formidable army at its disposal. Also,fierce resistance was expected from its civilian population. Adding all this together, a study done by William Shockley for the Secretary of War estimated that the total conquest of Japan - i.e. not just the capture of one half of one island - would have resulted in anywhere between 1.7 to 4.0 million US casualties (By battlefield casualties, they mean the total of those killed, wounded or captured. Except in the case of the war with Japan, there was not a lot of capturing done!) Jack.