"Some left because they were disappointed, but not all that many really."
If you follow the method given in that '69 WT you'll see that there were very many who left then. True, there's been significant growth since then but the impact of '75 on JW membership cannot be brushed aside as a minor event.
As to the JW apologists who say these things...I have in mind some who have tried to edit Wikipedia to say only 1 per cent left during that era.
Book: The Inside Story of Jehovah's Witnesses, Stevenson, 1968
by betterdaze 31 Replies latest watchtower beliefs
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cabasilas
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slimboyfat
Interesting, is there a record of changes made on Wikipedia?
I certainly agree more than 1% left. However it doesn't compare with 1925 when upwards of 75% left.
I think there was also great variation across the world. The Philippines and Holland were particularly badly hit by 1975. Other places were not so bad.
In the round I think 1975 had a positive impact on medium term growth if you look at 1965-1995 rather than just 1976-1980.
Slim
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cathyk
I've got both editions of this book, the British and American, in my personal collection. I do believe it was the first ex-JW account of Witness belief and practice that I ever read. I read it just before 1975, when things were really ramped-up. He's remarkably even-handed for an ex-JW. While his predictions for the ultimate failure of the religion due to the 1975 date were off, he still manages to provide an insight into the mindset of the time.
I wonder where he is today, if he's still around. It would be interesting to hear his take on things now.
Cathy
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slimboyfat
Interesting - does Wikipedia have a record of changes made?
I certainly agree that more than 1% left. However it was nowhere near as dramatic as 1925 when upwards of 75% left.
And it varied across the world too: The Philippines and Holland were badly hit by the fallout from 1975, and some other places less so.
I the round the 1975 event had a positive impact on medium term growth if you look at 1965-1995 rather than just 1976-1981.
It also contributed to the minor crisis in bethel surrounding Franz, Dunlap, Watters and others at that time, a result of which was that the Witnesses have since adopted a more hardline stance, which has arguably had a positive impact on growth.
Slim
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cabasilas
Stevenson's prediction was wrong but understandable.
Slim, I've never seen someone try to show how the stats from 75 to 80 support a view that "not all that many really" left the JWs. I'd be very interested in seeing that done. Personally, I don't think it can be done but I'd be willing to re-consider this if the evidence warrants it. Of course, if you average it over 30 years (1965-1995) the problem goes away. However, for hundreds of thousands of people it could not go away. They voted with their feet. -
slimboyfat
Cathy,
Are there any differences between the editions, apart from the title?
Slim
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slimboyfat
Well it all depends what you mean by "not that many" I suppose. The number who left as a direct result of 1975 is probably over 100,000, but I wouldn't like to be more specific than that. There were surely many who left for other more mundane reasons too. It is interesting how little Ray Franz, Carl Olof Jonsson, Jim Penton and other prominent ones who left in the late 1970s and early 1980s mention 1975 as a motivation.
Overall I think 1975 was positive for growth because if you look at the figures for the 1960s they were pretty dismal. Things only picked up after the 1975 prediction was made. The gains made before 1975 outweighed the small losses afterward. Plus the upheaval that resulted from the prophetic failure set the oranization up for some strong growth in the 1980s.
So if they could do it over again, purely from a cold calculation of growth, if I was to advise Knorr back in 1966 I would say go ahead with the 1975 prediction. I think there would be fewer Witnesses today otherwise.
Slim
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cabasilas
People leave for many different reasons. Personally, I think the 75 per cent decrease in 1928 also had a lot to do with the massive doctrinal changes Rutherford was putting into the WT. (1927 saw the end of CTR as the Faithful and Wise Servant, the end of "character development", etc.) It wasn't just the failure of 1925.
But, anyone who looks at the stats can clearly see it was much more than 100,000 that left after 1975. -
slimboyfat
You are of course correct about 1925 and doctrinal changes mixing things up. But how much were the changes also a panic reaction to the dramatic losses as well? It just goes to show how it is never clear cut.
Yes, Penton and many others in Alberta left around 1980. Did they leave because of 1975?
And those expelled from bethel, Ray Franz included, are they to be counted toward the grand total I wonder?
It's not so easy to say imo.
But as I say, if we were back in the 1960s and asked by Knorr whether publishing the 1975 prediction would be positive or negative for growth overall I think you would have to admit that it was not a bad idea.
There would be fewer Witnesses today otherwise.
Slim
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Pahpa
slimboy
I'm not sure about statistics. But having lived through that period in the early 80s, I know the impact upon many of us. It wasn't the 75 date specifically. Rather it was the accumulation of years of abuse and unchristian conduct we observed in the organization, particularly, by the elders. We also began to question some of the teachings. "This generation" was already a point of discussion among many of us. When we finally heard about the problems at Bethel it was the "final straw." Some of us personally knew the individuals that were involved. Our faith in the FDS was shattered.
The remarkable thing that I do recall is that many of our old friends in our old congregation came to the same conclusion at the same time. We withheld our feelings from one another because we didn't want "to stumble" them. However, after leaving, these friends became our own personal support group. In this group were some of the most zealous and knowlegable JWs.