by AlmostAtheist 47 Replies latest jw friends
>>How do you explain that Professor Dave??
That, Dear Student, is called "luck"! YOU -- it would seem -- have "good luck" and have learned to obey its leanings. I on the other hand have "bad luck". Unfortunately, being aware of having it doesn't help, since it knows I'm aware of it and intentionally makes me pick the cash box to start with, so I can wind up switching to the empty one.
Did anyone really think it was a coincidence that the Fates are women? ;-)
Dave
Awwwww........ prof.
You know you guys are putty in our hands! LMAO
What was the last Math problem? Wasn't that one given a few years ago? --VM44
Switching your choice after being shown the empty box will increase your odds of winning the prize.
This problem has been called the "Monty Hall problem" because it is what Monty Hall used to present on the "Let's Make a Deal" game show. There is even a whole wiki article about the problem.
I believe this problem is also related to something called the "Prisoner's Dilemma".
--VM44
Dave, very brave of you to bring out the Monty Hall problem. Now, I hope you're prepared to explain the maths dozens of times to people who'll swear blind that not only are you wrong but that you must be retarded.
juni:
Mathematically statiscally-wise this is true what you say..... makes sense.
But I've found when taking tests that one should always keep w/their first choice of an answer if they really don't know the answer.
How do you explain that Professor Dave??
The reason to keep the first answer you think of is that your intuition is often more likely to guess the right answer than your conscious mind. This doesn't apply at all in a game of chance.
>>who'll swear blind that not only are you wrong but that you must be retarded.
I spend a fair whack of my time defending myself against those two charges anyway, so I'm used to it.
Sadly, they're usually right!
Dave
The reason to keep the first answer you think of is that your intuition is often more likely to guess the right answer than your conscious mind. This doesn't apply at all in a game of chance.
Thanks FunkyDerek! At my age my intuition seems more reliable than my conscious mind.
It may seem like the odds are 50/50, except that two-thirds of the time, your choice would force Dave to open the only remaining empty box. This is because Dave cannot give you a break by opening the box with the $10,000. Because of this, two-thirds of the time, you must have already picked the other empty box, and it is in your best interest to switch. In other words, it is not 50/50 because your initial choice has had an effect on the probability at the time of your second choice.
I should read ALL the posts in a thread before posting!
AA already pointed out that this is the "Monty Hall" problem!
All I can say further is that Parade magazine published this problem once, and they received more more mail about it and its solution than for any other problem they had published!
--VM44
Anyone remember this "math / logic puzzle" that Simon posted back on 18-Sep-03?
http://www.jehovahs-witness.com/27/58902/1.ashx
Some dastardly villain has set up a device that will explode unless the two scales are each loaded with 6 litres of water.
You have a 12-litre bucket that is full of water along with empty 8 litre and 5 litre containers
How do you divide it equally into 2 x 6 litres?
