When will the JW's annual publisher growth rate finally hit zero? (page 2)

WTWizard

I sure hope soon. DAMN soon. I hope they see red ink on every a$$embly, as people stop donating before the closing session (since they are going to have a deficit then either way), and that stops them from getting this spiritual monosodium glutamate to the Third World. From there, I hope the governments and citizens begin an education campaign in the Third World about this cult that will suck an already poor people even drier.

Also, I hope they lose so many people in the States that they are not able to be effective in conducting ~~Watchtower~~Bible studies. As more of them look up apostate Web sites, the conductors will not be able to stop them. And the studies drop out, often taking the conductors out with them. Let that happen, and the money will dry up sooner than later. And when the Big Push for 2014 comes, they will have nothing to work with. Let them go belly-up--hopefully those pedophile suits will speed that day up.

steve2

The most obvious sign I see locally that active publisher numbers are down is the fact that I hardly ever see them out doing their door-to-door work.

In the past seven years, I have seen a handful of older JWs shuffling around the streets, and perhaps call at my door once (the local JWs don't know me). Contrast that with at least 20 years ago when they were door knocking much more regularly and back then they persisted until they found you at home or at least shoved a "sample" copy of the Awake! in your letterbox.

looking_glass

Well considering that the WTBTS plays fast and loose w/ most of their info, I can see how they would continue to say that they are continuing to have small increases even if it is not true. But really even if they claim that there is no growth, they will have some crazy reason for it (i.e., all of the world has been preached to and the end is REALLY REALLY close)

aniron

But what is increase or decrease in their numbers?

Just before I stopped attending meetings etc in 1999, the numbers in Britain were in round numbers:

average publishers 126,000

peak publishers 132,000

The latest report 2006 reads:

average publishers 122,000

peak publishers 129,000

So they are respectively 4,000 and 3,000 down on the 1999 figures.

Yet they claim an increase of 1% ...but this is only on the figures for the year before.

Yet looking back they are 2-3% down on the older numbers.

Can they claim an increase when technically they have not even got back to the numbers they were at 8-9 years ago?

SPAZnik

that'll only happen when JW's, elders and pioneers alike, stop lying on their service reports. :)

blondie

Can they claim an increase when technically they have not even got back to the numbers they were at 8-9 years ago?

aniron, you have discovered the wonders of statistics.

It explains how the WTS gets away with saying they have "consistently" said that 1914 is the year Jesus' presence began when going back a few years up until 1943, the official stance was 1874.

In their case the past is the mystery.

Blondie

steve2

Yet looking back they are 2-3% down on the older numbers.
Can they claim an increase when technically they have not even got back to the numbers they were at 8-9 years ago?

That's a trend noticeable in most western countries. As the astute old observation goes: "There are statistics and then there are lies".

To be fair, though, from the begining of their obsession with publicising their publisher figures (which began some time in the 1920s??) percentages of growth in publisher numbers have been based on changes up or down compared to the previous year and not for longer periods of time. So the yearly focus on + or - changes hides longer term trends (i.e., those occurring over several years). It can obscure actual notable decreases over time but equally in the past, obscured notable increases compared with say, ten years before hand. The absurdity is noticeable in the following fictitious example: Year 1: 1 publisher;

Year 2: 2 publishers (100%)

Year 3: 3 publishers (50%)

Year 4: 4 publishers (25%).

And the best news: The overall % increase from year 1 to year 4 is actually 400%!! Wow!!

Anony-Mouse

Oh that?

Just something I made up. I figure one of these days I'll get lucky, and it will end up correct.

moshe

"Liars will figure, but figures don't lie" -

Well, in the case of WT leaders they can massage the numbers to be anything they want.

When will the JW's annual publisher growth rate finally hit zero?

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