Predictions of the final total of total peak publishers for JWs?

by WTWizard 14 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

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  WTWizard

  The service year of 2006-07 is finished. The 2005-06 year peaked at 6,741,444 total. The average was much lower, and many of the higher total did only dummy service or fake service. Bear in mind also that many people are irregular, and only come out when they feel like it or are inconsistent in reporting their time. All it would take would be for every publisher to come out or fake a time for a given month and turn it in that month on time to inflate the numbers, probably well in excess of 7 million.

  Based on past history and present trend, I am guessing a number somewhere around 6.9 million as a peak. This will include numerous fake reports, some of which will be turned in by the hounders in behalf of the publishers in an attempt to appease the hounder-hounders. But, if the congregations really are losing publishers, the number could in fact be lower (I hope so). And I hope they don't start having children getting baptized at 6 years of age to inflate the totals, because they could easily change their minds and regret it.

  Optimistically, I am hoping based on the pathetic baptism counts and imploding congregations for a total somewhere near 6 to 6.2 million and falling, with an average near 5.5 million. Pessimistically, I am worried that, based on fake times and times turned in by the hounders to appease hounder-hounders and the epidemic of Witlessism in Nigeria, the total could be as high as 7.5 million with an average as high as 7 million. And, if they start forcing baptism on 6 year olds, that total could easily reach 8 million with an average of 7.2 million. Hopefully the first scenario will be closer--even 5.5 million is 5.5 million problems created where none needed to exist.
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  Jeffro

  Aside from their own ego-massaging, it doesn't really matter what the number of publishers turns out to be. The peak figures are usually inflated by their fruitless 'special campaigns', such as 'kingdom news' distribution, and don't mean much in practical terms. In real terms, their grown is minimal (and in many areas, negative), particularly relative to population growth.
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  JK666

  I am guessing a crest of 7.1 million, before the long decline.

  JK
• 

  jwfacts

  I imagine 2007 will be 6,850,000.

  If the Watchtower continues in current form I cannot imagine it growing beyound 8 million before it declines. However, if it becomes mainstream or has a new revolutionary leader take over there is always the chance it could grow dramatically as the Pentecostals have. Highly unlikely though. It is run by boring stooges too indoctrinated in the Watchtower way to stand up for change.
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  compound complex

  Greetings WTWizard,

  Thank you for this and your other fine presentations.

  Would you kindly provide information and/or links to what I have caught snatches of recently on the subject of "phenomenol" growth in Nigeria. I had previously read [somewhere] an implication that the WT stand on neutrality would put the large numbers of JWs in that country in a peculiar position. But I can't recall - something to do with nationalism and patriotism in a way that I had never thought of before ...

  I appreciate any help you might give.

  CoCo
• 

  avengers

  1 million would be good. What the heck ZERO would be better.

  Wishful thinking.

  oh well.
• 

  WTWizard

  Would you kindly provide information and/or links to what I have caught snatches of recently on the subject of "phenomenol" growth in Nigeria.

  That came straight from the official 2006 Service Report in the 2/1/2007 Puketower. While there are more studies in the United States, more of them are likely to be sabotaged when they run into apostate material on the Internet. On the other hand, in Nigeria, fewer people have access to the Internet and are hence more likely to become Witlesses once they begin studying than they are in the advanced countries with internet access on a widespread basis.

  I do not recall the exact numbers, but when I went through the numbers, Nigeria is the country that stuck out like a sore thumb. They had something like 280,000 active publishers during the 2005-06 service year, and more than 450,000 studies being conducted during that year. That is more studies per publisher, among countries reporting significant numbers of publishers, than anywhere else in the world.

  That doesn't mean that other countries in Africa will not catch up. There are quite a few with in the neighborhood of 10,000 publishers, and if they catch up to Nigeria, they too could add significantly. Anyone with the Feb 1, 2007 Watchtower should be able to find the chart, or you can go to www.watchtowerinformationservice.com (either by this link or through the banner ad that sometimes shows up on this forum) and look there for the chart. It also may be on their official site, but then again they could take that down at any time without notice.

  Only time will tell which country is the Number One Threat during the 2006-07 year in terms of having nearly twice as many studies as publishers and more than 100,000 pubs. But I am willing to bet that it will either be Nigeria again, or South Africa. Or one of the major countries like Sudan, Egypt, or Ethiopia where there are millions of people living in cities and not yet educated or exposed to the Internet. The good news is that people in those lands will quickly drain the Watchtower Society's cash flow, and will contribute little to their financial gain. The bad news is that, once those people are brainwashed, it's more likely to be for life there than in the West, and it will do more harm to their already strained economies than it is here.
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  OnTheWayOut

  WTWizard, I like your numbers in the initial thread starter. They could skyrocket or fall.

  I don't believe the numbers will fall. I think they made every effort to get young publishers and
  reactivated publishers and 15 minute publishers (old and sickly). With all that, I think they were
  hoping to have a peak over 7 million.

  Regardless of what happens, it is a trend over the next few years that will haunt them. The average
  witness will hear that the numbers went up and will say "7 million" or "nearly 7 million." I highly
  doubt 8 million is ever going to be reached. You can only activate so many young and old ones
  and some of those will tire of "special" campaigns coming faster and sooner. They have a ton of
  publishers in their upper years who will drift off the active rolls. The third world countries- well- they
  will learn what a burden being a JW is soon enough. Word will get out there, too, about it being a
  mind-control cult.

  For the last service year, I see 6.9 to 7.0 million. I hope it's under 7 million, then they will have to
  load up the next year with easy special campaigns again. The JW's will wonder if that's the permanent
  type of message, since the end is so near. The ones who are still vigorous will tire of it by 2009.

  Even if it's over 7 million, they will not want to lose their climbing numbers. I predict by 2010, there
  will be no stopping the downslide.
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  Gayle

  What's happening in the first-world countries is the reality tho. The third-world countries may increase but sadly the WTS doesn't help them in any way with their economics and health realities. They will burn out more quickly for the most part for the headquarters of the WTS truly has no sympathy for their reality and will only see them as a drain overall since there is no money there.
• 

  cultswatter

  WTWizard.

  I have 6 years of calculus under my belt and will offer my services for free. I was just working on a document entitled " Will the Jehovah's WItnesses hit 8 million". It is sitting on my desk (in rough form) all 4 pages of it. The document should finish at 6 pages long. Now I have already come to the conclusion that the JWs will not hit 8 million and I have the mathematical equations to prove that.

  I'll post it if you wish, but it will take me about 3 days to finish.