usa 2001 stats

by jeffory 21 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  Skimmer

  My thanks to all those who have posted 2001 disService Year statistics.

  It now appears that the decline in the English speaking portion of the United States membership can no longer be made up with any increase in the Spanish speaking segment. This will undoubtedly continue as the US is now likely to crack down on illegal immigration, most of which are Spanish speaking, and so further reduce the WTBTS victim count.

  As mentioned before, it is the decline in the baptism counts that is the real indicator for future prospects. The WTBTS sees this just as clearly, and they realize that they are in big trouble that is getting even bigger as the largest baptism declines are in the more developed countries. These are the countries where the WTBTS has been milking the cash cow, but, as they say, the handwriting is on the wall.

  I stand by my prediction of a while back where we we see the 2006 disService year figures show a peak for the entire WTBTS publisher count. Then, it's downhill all the way unless a very serious mainstreaming effort is put into place.

  Again:

  2001: End of net growth in first world countries.

  2006: Worldwide peak publishers.

  2011: Strongly mainstream, or schism, or very rapid decline.

  2027: If not fully mainstream, then bankrupt.
• 

  proplog2

  Don't celebrate. These figures could be quite significant. They may indicate the saturation point for the USA. The work has been completed in the USA. It is now time for JW's to recognize that the Sept. 11 attack on the USA is the "disgusting thing standing where it ought not" . It is time for JWS to flee the USA/Babylon the Great before this richest entity the world has ever seen is completely destroyed.
• 

  larc

  Folks,

  I just looked up some information in the Almanac. The average growth rate in the developed countries is .4%. Assuming that all the JW growth came from their children only, they should have increased by about 4,000 last year instead of only about 700. Divide 700 by 4,000 and you can see they are retaining less than 17% of their kids. This would be the upper limit of the retention of their kids because some of their meager increase would be from converts. Their religion has truely become a revolving door.

  At FreeMinds, you can see graphs that show the long term trends for various countries, both for baptisms and total numbers.
• 

  Skimmer

  Hello proplog2:

  If it is as you say that the WTBTS should flee the US, do you think that we'll see the "For Sale" signs popping up on Brooklyn and Patterson? Maybe the property will be bought by someone who will actually pay city taxes and stop mooching off the public.

  Then again, what about all those poor people in the area who will than have to go without any of the WTBTS food pantries, the WTBTS clothing assistance, the WTBTS homeless shelters, the WTBTS soup kitchens, and WTBTS schools? Oh, sorry, I forgot; there aren't any of these, only Satan's "Worldwide Empire of False Religion" has provided such assistance. I guess "God's Only True Channel" has just been too busy pumping out billions of copies of the _Watchtower_ and other "fine spiritual food in due season".
• 

  expatbrit

  Hi Larc:

  Interesting! Does this calc. take into account a factor for death?

  Expatbrit
• 

  larc

  expat,

  Yes, it does. Population growth is the birth rate minus the death rate.

  Since putting up the numbers I have found some for the US only as opposed to the larger group of developed nations. These numbers are even more damning. The population growth rate in the U.S. is .65%. The imigration rate is .14%. Combining these two gives a value of .79 nearly twice as large as the figure I gave before. Therefore, just to keep up with population growth and immigration with no new converts at all, they should have grown at the rate of about 8,000 last year compared to their paltry 700 or so. This explains a that fact that someone else pointed out. Their numbers as a percent of the U.S. population is going down.
• 

  Room 215

  Proplog2,
  
  Don't kid yourself; the statistics are alarming, the boys are Bethel are worried -- and it ain't just the United States that's sagging. Still, it's a free country, and if you sleep better enwrapped in this faniciful notion of `saturation,'' then sweet dreams. Whether it's ``Peace and Security'' this week, ``Great Tribulation'' the next or ``Gog and Magog'' by Christmas, you can count on JWs for a glib rationalization for every contingency.
• 

  proplog2

  Room 215:

  The fact that something hasn't happened has only ONE meaning - it hasn't happened. But the fact that something hasn't happened does not mean that it won't happen. Now you can be a pragmatist and say when it happens it happens - I'll worry about it then. Or you may keep awake - keep scanning the world scene looking for correlations and sifting the evidence. There is a reward that possibly awaits those who have discernment. If there isn't a reward then when all is said and done - none are the better for believing or not believing.
• 

  Skimmer

  proplog2 writes: "keep scanning the world scene looking for correlations and sifting the evidence".

  The big correlation I see is the one in each country that directly correlates access to the Internet (and the truth about the WTBTS) and a decline in baptisms.

  proplog2 writes: "If there isn't a reward then when all is said and done - none are the better for believing or not believing."

  Well, what about all the family disruption caused by disfellowshipping due to the ever-changing and unjustifiable doctrine of the WTBTS? What about the lives lost due to quack medical policies such as the bans on vaccination, transplants, and blood transfusion? What about all the nightmares induced in children who don't know any better? What about the destruction caused to teenagers who've lost any chance with a normal social life? What about couples forced into unhappy marriages because of the inability to date normally? What about the parents who've lost contact with their children due to unscriptural shunning caused by man-made, arbitrary rules? What about all the middle aged persons who got suckered into giving up on a college education and are stuck in poor employment situations? What about all the elderly who've sacrificed their whole lives for a publishing scam and now have no retirement? What about everyone who's been humiliated by so-called judicial committees that are nothing more than witch hunts by the unqualified and the malevolent?

  I can think of no obscenity strong enough to accurately portray the WTBTS. Those than continue to defend it after learning the real truth are beyond pity.
• 

  larc

  proplog,

  I'd like to point out to you that the results for the U.S. are not an isolated case. The same results have occured for the past four years in 22 other developed nations.