I have a theory that explains the current situation. I think the current doctrinal/prophetic condition that the JWs find themselves in is a product of their current leadership arrangement. What I mean by that is that the religion’s changes in doctrine (or lack thereof) show all the signs of a religious organization being run by committee as opposed to a single powerful leader.
From their founding, the JWs doctrine was almost entirely the product of one single individual. Charles T. Russell was seen as the “faithful and discreet slave” by his followers and he was in charge of setting forth the official doctrine for his Bible Students group. After Russell’s death, Joseph Rutherford managed to wrest control of the group from the hands of Russell’s hand-picked successors. From that point forward, Rutherford was in charge of setting forth official doctrine. His word was law when it came to official JW matters.
After Rutherford’s death, Nathan Knorr assumed the mantle of leadership. Knorr, however, was more bureaucrat than oracle. Knorr used the Society’s vice-president, Fred Franz, as the religion’s primary theologian. By all accounts, Knorr deferred to Franz’s interpretation of the scriptures. Knorr was the CEO and Franz was the organization’s chief “prophet.” Franz was rarely overruled by Knorr when it came to doctrinal matters. It was only during the tail end of Knorr’s reign as president of the WTBTS that some power began to be delegated to the governing body. Knorr died shortly thereafter and Fred Franz succeeded Knorr as the WTBTS’s president.
Despite the delegation of power, the men who were appointed to the governing body were largely deferential to Fred Franz. Most of these men had come to see Franz as Jehovah’s principal mouthpiece in matters of prophecy, so they were reluctant to overrule him. Fred Franz remained in control of doctrinal matters well into his old age. It wasn’t until he became too old and senile that he was finally relieved from this role.
What does all of this mean? Well, from what I’ve heard and read, Fred Franz was an extremely intelligent man. He was able to twist and turn various Bible prophecies into a semi-coherent doctrinal structure. During Franz’s reign, the JW’s prophetic framework was as coherent and consistent as it has ever been. Of course, despite how consistent and coherent his prophetic template may have appeared to be, it was destined to fail, just as if it would have failed had he developed a modern-day prophetic framework using The Lord of the Rings or some other literary work of fantasy or science fiction.
Fred Franz’s death left a power vacuum within the organization that nobody has been able to fill. There was no strong personality to assume the void. No new “oracle” emerged. Instead, the religion truly came to be governed by committee (the governing body) for the first time in its history. Because of the way the committee works, it takes 2/3 of the committee for anything to get done (at least that was the case as of the early 1980s per Ray Franz’s book, Crisis of Conscience). There was no new strong personality whom the rest of the governing body was deferential of to drive home prophetic changes. Instead, the doctrinal framework has remained pretty much the same since Fred Franz’s death. It’s crumbling around the governing body and the only time they can gather up the necessary votes to change doctrine is when it’s clear that the prophecy has failed.
I believe that the organization is in drastic need of a prophetic overhaul. They essentially need to start from scratch again if they intend to remain viable as an apocalyptic cult. To get that done, however, someone needs to convince 2/3 of the governing body to go along with them and apparently no one person has emerged with that kind of power. Various reports suggest that Ted Jaracz is the closest thing to a leader as is out there, but he’s apparently more of a bureaucrat concerned with consolidating power and pushing a more puritanical brand of faith than he is with reframing the religion’s prophetic foundation. He’s no heir to Franz’s role as chief oracle.
If the religion had a strong personality, a strong leader in the tradition of Russell, Rutherford, or Franz, they would have gotten out of this mess a while back. The leader would have re-interpreted the religion’s official doctrine to make it more coherent and tenable. Instead, due to a lack of true leadership, the religion’s doctrinal framework is crumbling around them and the committee is only able to build a sufficient consensus to make changes when it has become clear that the prophetic interpretation has failed (such as with the literal interpretation of the word “generation” and with the 1935 date as the cut-off of new anointed). Unless a new leader emerges, or a big enough coalition develops within the governing body, the doctrine will remain essentially the same with only minor changes taking place from time to time when absolutely necessary.
