Anointed Actuarial Report

by RunningMan 22 Replies latest jw friends

  • RunningMan
    RunningMan

    Many years ago, I noticed (like the rest of you) that the stubborn anointed
    ones seemed to be immortal. Supposedly, they had all been sealed prior
    to 1935, so they must be very old. Yet, their numbers were not decreasing
    as they should. In some years, they even increased.

    At first, I mused about the possibility of selling life insurance to them. Just
    imagine the claims ratio! Then, I thought it was time to get serious. I
    made some assumptions (such as a minimum age of 30 when selected
    to be of the anointed). I also gave the society the benefit of the doubt by
    assuming that they were all of this minimum age in 1935. Replacements
    should be minimal and could be ignored.

    Then, I plugged the numbers into an actuarial table, beginning with the
    1970 service report. Well, as of 2001, it can be actuarially proven that
    84.9% of the anointed are frauds, fakes, bogus. Either the current
    doctrine is wrong and should be scrapped, or the anointed today are
    mostly pretenders. Here is the numerical proof:

    ...................Expected
    .....Mortality..Ending.....Actual
    .......Rate.....Quantity...Quantity.Variance.Age

    1970 0.018200 10368 10368 0000 65
    1971 0.020220 10158 10526 0368 66
    1972 0.022042 09934 10384 0450 67
    1973 0.023864 09697 10350 0653 68
    1974 0.025686 09448 10523 1075 69
    1975 0.027310 09190 10723 1533 70
    1976 0.030110 08914 10550 1636 71
    1977 0.032910 08620 10187 1567 72
    1978 0.035710 08312 10080 1768 73
    1979 0.038510 07992 09762 1770 74
    1980 0.041310 07662 09727 2065 75
    1981 0.045790 07311 09564 2253 76
    1982 0.050270 06944 09601 2657 77
    1983 0.054750 06564 09529 2965 78
    1984 0.059230 06175 09292 3117 79
    1985 0.063710 05781 09081 3300 80
    1986 0.063710 05413 09051 3638 81
    1987 0.063710 05068 08808 3740 82
    1988 0.063710 04745 08685 3940 83
    1989 0.063710 04443 08734 4291 84
    1990 0.068710 04138 08869 4731 85
    1991 0.073710 03833 08850 5017 86
    1992 0.078710 03531 08683 5152 87
    1993 0.083710 03235 08693 5458 88
    1994 0.088710 02948 08617 5669 89
    1995 0.093710 02672 08645 5973 90
    1996 0.098710 02408 08657 6249 91
    1997 0.103710 02159 08795 6636 92
    1998 0.108710 01924 08756 6832 93
    1999 0.113710 01705 08755 7050 94
    2000 0.118710 01503 08661 7158 95
    2001 0.123710 01317 08730 7413 96

    Of 8730 annointed, 84.9% are actuarially unexpected

    Column 1: Reporting year for society's figures
    Column 2: Mortality rate - expected percentage of deaths per year
    for someone of that age
    Column 3: Expected number of anointed ones based on actuarial calculation
    Column 4: Actual number of anointed ones based on Society's figures
    Column 5: Variance between actual and expected quantities
    Column 6: Minimum age of anointed

  • cyberguy
    cyberguy

    COOL! I always wondered about this.

    The Watchtower of Jan. 1 (might have been 15th--I'll try and find it again), 2000, gave reasons why we know the end is so close. One of the reasons was that the "real" number of the anointed was going down. I guess they had to explain it this way, because the "actual" number was going up!

  • tyydyy
    tyydyy

    They are not immortal!

    They have a time machine and keep going back to 1985.

    TimB

  • sleepy
    sleepy

    Sorry I cant make sense of your figures.Please could you label it more clearly so I can understand what you are showing

  • sleepy
    sleepy

    I get it now ,it was the dots that threw me

  • RunningMan
    RunningMan

    OK, I've lined up the columns better, and added some descriptions
    at the bottom. Hope that helps.

  • Osarsif
    Osarsif

    The expected ending quantity for year n is obtained by:

    (Expected Ending Quantity year (n-1))*(1 - Mortality Rate year n)
    Expected
    Mortality Ending Actual
    Rate Quantity Quantity Variance Age

    1970 10368 65
    1971 0.02022 10158 10526 368 66
    1972 0.02204 9934 10384 450 67
    1973 0.02386 9697 10350 653 68
    1974 0.02568 9448 10523 1075 69
    1975 0.02731 9190 10723 1533 70
    1976 0.03011 8914 10550 1636 71
    1977 0.03291 8620 10187 1567 72
    1978 0.03571 8312 10080 1768 73
    1979 0.03851 7992 9762 1770 74
    1980 0.04131 7662 9727 2065 75
    1981 0.04579 7311 9564 2253 76
    1982 0.05027 6944 9601 2657 77
    1983 0.05475 6564 9529 2965 78
    1984 0.05923 6175 9292 3117 79
    1985 0.06371 5781 9081 3300 80
    1986 0.06371 5413 9051 3638 81
    1987 0.06371 5068 8808 3740 82
    1988 0.06371 4745 8685 3940 83
    1989 0.06371 4443 8734 4291 84
    1990 0.06871 4138 8869 4731 85
    1991 0.07371 3833 8850 5017 86
    1992 0.07871 3531 8683 5152 87
    1993 0.08371 3235 8693 5458 88
    1994 0.08871 2948 8617 5669 89
    1995 0.09371 2672 8645 5973 90
    1996 0.09871 2408 8657 6249 91
    1997 0.10371 2159 8795 6636 92
    1998 0.10871 1924 8756 6832 93
    1999 0.11371 1705 8755 7050 94
    2000 0.11871 1503 8661 7158 95
    2001 0.12371 1317 8730 7413 96

    Note: 7413/8730 = 84.9%

  • Moxy
    Moxy

    do i understand correctly that the mortality rate is the one for the age in that row and not the rate for the population in general. and so is the age assumed to be avg of 65 in 1970 (ie they were in 30 in 1935) ?

    mox

  • RunningMan
    RunningMan

    The mortality rate is for the age of the person in that row. I have given the
    society the benefit of the doubt by assuming that all of the anointed
    are of the minimum possible age.

    I also have another chart which assumes that the anointed were all 13 years
    of age in 1935. The results are similar (47% fake), but not as striking.

    By the way, if you look up your age on the chart, you will find out the
    likelihood of dying this year. Sobering, isn't it?

  • crownboy
    crownboy

    In that case, the only Governing Body member that's "real" according to your report is Carey Barber (and barely so). I guess the organization is being run by a bunch of frauds! (Wait a second, we already knew this .

    But seriously, (for arguments sake) coundn't you be 20 years old in 1935 and still be a "real" annointed? I think that would be a reasonable age. How much lower would the "fraud rate" be in that case?

    Go therefore and baptize the people in the name of the father and of the son... what the hell, we just need to bring up the yearbook numbers!

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