One of the greatest problems for the mankind...

by Erich 15 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  Erich

  One of the greatest problems for the future of our economy is only known by few "insiders". Even WTS do not know this matter. Since I'm a patent-expert, It's perhaps my own business to talk about it.
  
  It is a fact, that in the beginning 21. century less and less new inventions and new products can be patented and legally protected sufficiently. This is valid in all the computer - and IT - industry all around.

  The consequence of this fact is price-decay of many products. Simultaneously, and of course, many (often highly qualified!) employees loses their jobs. In order to survive, the production of electronic Hi-Tech-Systems (Hard - and Software) often must get out-sourced into low-price-countries like Indonesia, Taiwan or China.
  
  On the other hand, pharmaceutical-, bio - or genetic engineering-companies do not suffer under inadequate patentability. It's relatively easily for them to get good and legal-consistent patents on their inventions. This leads to a dangerous situation: Results of researches and developments of essential importance for the future of the mankind, such as cell-therapy, cloning, genom-analyzing etc. have got "flooded" with patents. So in such branches it is nearly impossible to practise free scientific researches, and furthermore, the patents and licenses are too expensive to be paid by the poor…
  
  For many years, patent-experts are storming their brains to find solutions; but it is impossible to find a way out.
  
  My opinion is this: If Harmagedon should take place, then the situation described could serve as a kind of "trigger". That Crash of the NewEconomy 2000 - 2001 has been an attribute of this situation.
  A very strong attribute.
• 

  moman

  Erich, what the hell are you smokin & can you send me some?
• 

  gumby

  I want some too!
• 

  Erich

  I do not smoke. What I write is true.
  
  As a consequence of this disastrous global patenting- and licensing-situation, crashes of stocks and investments, especially in the sector of NewEconomy, will happen frequently and in shorter time periods.
  
  See Japan as an excellent example for what had happened. Japanese economy was hoping (and staring) at infinite growth in new patentable inventions in the fields of electronics, IT, computer and robotics technology.
  Years by years, decades by decades.
  
  In 1994, the nikkei-index reached nearly 40 000 pts. The crash came when they began to realize that it'd be impossible to invent so many patentable and licensable new products as would be necessary to meet the high claims and expectations of investors, banks, education systems, and government (budget deficit!). The nikkei-index began rapidly to fall; and now it is in the near of 10 000 pts!
  
  Same happened in NewEconomy of Europe and USA in May 2000. It's the result of a damaged and destroyed patent- and license system, nothing else. The whole sphere of intellectual property is in highest danger.
• 

  Stephanus

  It's all crap, of course. Patents are a brilliant invention whereby innovation can be rewarded. In order to have an invention or innovation protected by a patent, the plans must be lodged with the patenting authorities; those plans are then available for scrutiny by others. Anyone can get round a patent by further improving upon an invention. Patents are also not a long term restriction, they tend to decay after about 10 - 15 years. The patent for Prozac just ran out, after around 10 years. A patent is not a licence to print money - the only way to keep making money on an invention is to keep improving upon it. There is a myth (perpetuated by the anti-GE crowd) that seeds can be patented - it's totally false, of course!

  "You've got the brain of a four-year-old boy, and I'll bet he was glad to get rid of it."
  - Groucho Marx
• 

  Erich

  Stephanus: A patent is not a licence to print money - the only way to keep making money on an invention is to keep improving upon it...<
  
  Exactly.
  And just this is the weak point of innovations in NewEconomy today..
  
  1) Developers and technicians can iterate and cumulate same base
  technologies or algorithms (e.g. software!)
  2) Or they can miniaturize same base product
  3) Or they can make it faster
  4) Or they can improve reliability
  4) Or they can change the DESIGN
  5) Or they can improve small details, but not the key principle or base method !

  In fact, they are not able to invent enough GENUINE NEW products (patentable and licensable, so the producer could make enough money!) - the customer would run buying them (what had happened e.g. when the first color TV devices came on the market)...
• 

  Stephanus

  Maybe it's a sore point with you - perhaps you're a producer who wants to be forever rewarded for the one clever thing you ever did. I as a consumer, however, welcome the continual pressure upon inventors and manufacturers to continually compete against themselves and each other to get more and better products to market more cheaply. You claim nothing new is being invented? How bizarre!

  "You've got the brain of a four-year-old boy, and I'll bet he was glad to get rid of it."
  - Groucho Marx
• 

  NameWithheld

  Ah HA! So armageddon is'a comin' because we've run out of things to INVENT! Makes so much sense, have you written your buds the GB to inform them that you, a regular Joe, have disovered valuable bible truths about armageddon? Maybe their phone call with god got cut off before they could get that flash of 'new barf', I mean, 'new light'
• 

  Stephanus

  NameWH, your first comment reminds me of that famous quote from the head of the US Patent office in the 1870s - something along the lines of "We might as well shut up shop - everything that can be invented has been!" (a very ROUGH recollection!)

  "You've got the brain of a four-year-old boy, and I'll bet he was glad to get rid of it."
  - Groucho Marx
• 

  fodeja

  Same happened in NewEconomy of Europe and USA in May 2000. It's the result of a damaged and destroyed patent- and license system, nothing else. The whole sphere of intellectual property is in highest danger.

  Wow, nothing like simple explanations for complex issues, huh? I may be wrong, but I have that feeling you're one of those people who automatically equate "change" with "catastrophe" (since you seem to be so fond of quoting people, read up on Schumpeter for some thoughts on that).

  The downfall (or rather, consolidation) of the "New Economy" came when venture capitalists and other investors realised that prefixing an "e" to a (possibly not even yet existing) product's name and selling it over the Web doesn't generate demand automatically.

  In some not-quite-as-visible places, said "New Economy" is booming: for instance, the automotive industry has built complex virtual B2B marketplace systems, for the benefit of both sellers and buyers, and yet that market is still in its infancy. We're talking many billions of USD or EUR p.a. here, and it's not a soap bubble that'll burst soon. Granted, it's more of a vertical market, and you seem to be talking about mass-produced commodities. The NE was/is about selling services, not selling goods.

  As regards software: software patents are definitely one of the stupidest ideas anyone ever came up with, and I'm glad the EU seems to be taking an anti-patent stance in that area. Software patents inhibit innovation, which is quite the opposite of what patents were originally intended for. (Hilarious examples are provided on an almost weekly basis in the USA, where some companies are successfully trying to get patents for the computing world's equivalents of the wheel and the lever.)

  I agree that something's definitely wrong in the area of biotechnology / pharmaceuticals patenting, and I see no simple solutions. But I don't see TEOTWAWKI either.

  f.