Swine flu and the understanding of science.

by Spook 10 Replies latest social current

• 

  Spook

  I've gotten sick of responding to swine flu posts, so I'll say my peace here:

  Pandemic is a word with a specific meaning. Words have meanings and it matters. That something is a Pandemic does not mean it it warrants panic. Pandemic refers to scale not risk. This is mainly a problem of public perception of science.

  An epidemic is simply when more people get "sick" from something than is usual. In zoology you have an "epizoodic." Similar terms are used for farm crops and trees (beetles, locusts, etc.).

  A pandemic is an epidemic across a large geographical area. That's all. It is contrasted with an endemic such as rhinovirus or malaria which have a constant base level in a population.

  Swine flu is an epidemic if more people catch this flu than other known flu strains, or if it is a new virus in a given population (Emprically true in the former or true by definition in the latter). It's a pandemic if it indeed is spreading across large geographical areas, such as between continents or nations.

  Yes, it will probably be over very soon, like most flu's, because it will die by the 3rd generation of mutations as antibodies outpace virulent evolution.

  Epi = Greek prefix in this context meaning "over" "upon" or "more."

  Pan = Greek prefix refering to "all" similar to the latin "omni."

  En = "in"

  Demos = Greek for people or population

  Any known disease is always an endemic, epidemic or pandemic. There are no other options of classification!!! Swine flu is a "new" strain, and is therefore not endemic. That means it's either an epidemic or a pandemic!

  So for the love of all gods which don't exist, please stop saying it's a scam to call it an epidemic or a pandemic. These are words with simple meanings and it is easy to differentiate between them for anyone who can think seriously.
• 

  BurnTheShips

  Buhbuhbuhbuhbuhbuhbuhbut Biden says stay out of the subways and airplanes!

  ;-)
• 

  OnTheWayOut

  And it has nothing to do with pigs anymore. It started there, but it's human-to-human now.
• 

  Spook

  Haha. We have options to judge - Teleology of an unknown purpose, stupidity, error, misunderstanding...

  I think it takes a new administration a while to realize that california farts when washington eats chili. LOL. You're probably justified to hold them responsible for that knowledge in some rather complicated way. Yet it is an inescapable problem for authority.
• 

  Damocles

  Spook,

  Well said and good try. Doubt it will take though.

  I like the WHO definition of phases for pandemics. Very clear and concise.

  I am appalled at the reporting on this disease. The doctors interviewed on CNN and the others must have gotten their degrees for $150 on the internet. The meaning of the WHO phases has really been mangled in the press.

  IMO, the best site for good info is CIDRAP http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/

  Damocles
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  Damocles

  This looks like a nice place to deposit my 2 cents.

  The danger of a catastrophic pandemic with a high death rate is a low probability but high impact event. For me, the situation at the moment is exactly like a hurricane warning a week before it is due to strike. Its a good time for prudent precautions but getting overly excited is not helpful.

  Its good to learn how anti-virals work (they work best in the first 24 - 48 hours of getting the virus), the symptoms of the disease, to lay in a few food supplies in case we get told to stay home for a week or so (wine and scotch are food, trust me), to make plans for school or day care closing, etc. Just prudent, reasonable preparations and keep a weather eye on the situation.

  Virus are tricky buggers. There is absolutely no forecasting how this ends up. It could be very minor or it could be very major, but it is just too soon to know. But the time for prudent preparation, for hurricanes and pandemics, is early not late.

  Bet the dubs are shaking with excitement though. Its time for Aporkalypse! at least for the poor pigs in Egypt.

  Damocles
• 

  Spook

  I agree Damocles. If I lived in mexico and had an elderly grandmother, I'd tell her to stay home from the market and would offer to shop for her. I'd also take my child for medical attention at the first sign of symptoms.

  Now, the real warning for a flu virus is that generally the worst flu outbreaks will tend to die down shortly after flair up and lie mostly dormant for months, perhaps resurfacing in the winter.

  So we'll probably hear about this one for a while.
• 

  AllTimeJeff

  Reasonable precautions, paying attention to any symptoms, (unless you are a hypochondriac) is all we can do.

  If it gets worse, we will respond appropriately.

  I can't wait for the conspiracy theories to start... Oh wait, never mind...
• 

  rebel8

  Thanks spook. I am mystified by the mass hysteria and accusations of fear-mongering by health officials.

  I haven't seen CNN lately but on other networks the health officials aren't saying anything scary at all. They are just stating facts. Yet people are either getting really afraid or criticizing them for speaking about it.

  Our VP did not say everyone should stay out of the subways or airplanes. Please watch the clip again.

  From World Health Organization:

  Pandemic: An epidemic (a sudden outbreak) that becomes very widespread and affects a whole region, a continent, or the world.

  By contrast:

  • An epidemic affects more than the expected number of cases of disease occurring in a community or region during a given period of time. A sudden severe outbreak within a region or a group as, for example, AIDS in Africa or AIDS in intravenous drug users.

  The word "pandemic" comes from the Greek "pan-", "all" + "demos", "people or population" = "pandemos" = "all the people." A pandemic affects all (nearly all) of the people. By contrast, "epi-" means "upon."

  From CDC:

  pandemic an epidemic occurring over a widespread area (multiple countries or continents) and usually affecting a substantial proportion of the population

  epidemic the occurrence of more cases of disease, injury, or other health condition than expected in a given area or among a specific group of persons during a particular period. Usually, the cases are presumed to have a common cause or to be related to one another in some way
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  Damocles

  Ahh conspiracies!

  Some Mexican authorities are suggesting it was brought to Mexico by a Bangladeshi visiting a relative. Curiously, the errant Bangladeshi has gone missing. Eaten by the virus I suppose.

  Personnally, I like blaming California. I like CA but it seems a good whipping boy from here in the east.

  Hey lets start a rumor or conspiracy. Didn't Montezuma predict a devastating illness that would ravage the europeans in about 500 years? We were dubs, we ought to be able to figure this out and make it work.

  Damocles