10 Years Japan losses 5,400 Publishers and 638 Kingdom Halls! Why? (page 6)

Roberta804

Economy in Japan has been in a slump for 11 years, in fact they call the last decade the "Lost Decade". This may have been a factor.

Jeffro

Japan is shrinking in population -- or preparing to do so. It was a big story a few months back when it was reported that Japan buys more adult diapers than it buys baby diapers. I think you are seeing a population thing.

I did a check comparing 2004 (fairly arbitrarily) and 2012 figures. For that period, the growth rate of JWs in Japan is 0.043% (i.e. one hundredth of 4.3%) ahead of population growth. So it's not looking great for JWs in Japan, even taking into account the country's negative population growth.

88JM

By popular demand...

Japan

At first it looks a bit like a post-2000 drop off, but on inspection, problems seem to start even as early as 1995-1997 with publishers reducing their hours, the repurcussions of that being felt years later with less baptisms in the pipeline, and the study-to-baptism conversion ratio. That would certainly fit in around the time possible-san mentions regarding prevalance of internet use, and this possibly combined with the theory about the '95 cult attacks mentioned by Billy the Ex-Bethelite.

(Will try fill in the blanks tomorrow)

	Population	Peak pubs.	Ratio of 1 pub. to:	Av. pubs.	Inc. over prev.	Baptized	Av. Aux Pio.	Av. Pio. Pubs.	Congs.	Hours	Bible Studies	Memorial Attendan.
1985 (yb86)	120,007,812	103,117	1,164	97,823	12	10,290	(incl. in Pio.)	39,384	1,722	46,483,981	142,547	258,728
1986	120,720,542	113,062	1,068	108,702	11	10,900	(incl. in Pio.)	46,390	1,809	53,608,147	146,316	263,302
1987	121,371,798	120,722	1,005	117,308	8	9,211	(incl. in Pio.)	49,503	1,934	57,151,828	159,499	277,553
1988	TBA
1989	122,335,313	137,941	887	133,846	7	10,596	(incl. in Pio.)	58,203	2,124	65,946,087	170,784	317,785
1990	122,744,952	147,622	831	143,399	7	11,166	(incl. in Pio.)	63,484	2,355	71,480,915	190,256	329,422
1991	TBA
1992	123,587,297	171,438	721	165,823	8	12,364	(incl. in Pio.)	75,956	2,875	85,383,755	222,012	364,980
1993	123,957,458	183,097	677	177,611	7	13,000	(incl. in Pio.)	80,293	3,126	89,838,835	220,906	368,618
1994	124,322,801	194,608	639	189,586	7	12,158	(incl. in Pio.)	85,075	3,365	95,777,051	235,882	375,131
1995	124,655,498	206,617	603	201,266	6	11,546	(incl. in Pio.)	87,289	3,552	97,721,628	241,221	378,586
1996	124,914,373	213,961	584	210,290	4	11,421	(incl. in Pio.)	87,476	3,691	99,115,637	236,158	377,223
1997	125,257,061	220,663	568	217,970	4	10,962	(incl. in Pio.)	89,513	3,771	99,600,126	197,570	376,853
1998	125,568,035	222,912	563	222,347	2	7,779	(incl. in Pio.)	85,930	3,802	96,257,029	160,011	366,637
1999	TBA
2000	126,071,305	221,364	570	220,538	-1	4,388	(incl. in Pio.)	77,972	3,538	76,418,770	141,674	350,618
2001	126,714,000	220,113	576	218,866	-1	4,139	(incl. in Pio.)	73,695	3,305	73,324,070	134,769	345,223
2002	126,478,672	218,731	578	217,971	0	3,925	(incl. in Pio.)	71,584	3,213	72,436,323	143,281	343,852
2003	126,688,364	217,508	582	217,020	0	2,639	(incl. in Pio.)	70,993	3,163	72,007,415	151,039	344,967
2004	126,824,166	217,555	583	217,097	0	6,055	(incl. in Pio.)	71,158	3,163	72,574,886	159,434	348,397
2005	126,869,397	218,262	581	217,227	0	3,785	15,743	(72,154) 56,411	3,164	73,502,684	159,834	338,330
2006	127,655,345	217,519	587	217,181	0	3,781	17,477	(74,953) 57,476	3,171	75,325,913	166,488	336,240
2007	127,756,815	218,691	584	217,929	0	4,308	18,728	(77,568) 58,840	3,177	78,588,916	164,674	331,172
2008	127,767,994	218,091	586	217,339	0	3,806	18,116	(79,197) 61,081	3,177	79,347,398	172,236	332,986
2009	TBA
2010	127,078,679	218,698	581	217,240	0	3,268	14,724	(79,145) 64,421	3,118	80,533,101	167,353	322,845
2011	126,536,000	218,057	580	217,352	0	2,892	19,301	(84,341) 65,040	3,078	81,553,752	167,987	323,211
2012(yb13)	126,536,000	217,154	583	216,692	0	2,787	18,187	(83,342) 65,245	3,055	81,447,987	168,138	314,111

Selected graphs:

Sulla

Hmm. It seems the population hypothesis might need some work. There is still an ageing factor that isn't being captured, but you would still expect that to be a more gradual effect. These graphs suggest that, one afternoon in 1997, they just gave up.

WTF? That's just weird.

wha happened?

so the growth is in born ins. Obviously the population isn't buying it anymore

whathappened

Very encourageing statistics for us, very discouraging, no doubt, for the Watchtower Bible & Tract Society.

88JM

Comparing it to the UK, Japanese publishers still do way more hours - the average publisher would have no problem doing the special 30-hour pioneering a month.

However, despite all their hours and having 60% more publishers, their baptisms are now about on par with the UK. This would seem to indicate there are far more hours wasted.

Though they do have 54% more studies per publisher, it does look like it's much harder to get a study to baptism - their study to baptism ratio is much bigger than the UK.

Splash

Thanks 88JM.

I see they are creative with their mathematical rounding.

2012 : 126,536,000 ÷ 216,692 = 583.9. Lets round down to 583 then!

Makes more of a difference if they are this dishonest with the %ge figures though.

And can you imagine putting in 81 million hours only to have the peak pubs and memorial attendance drop year on year?

Splash

wha happened?

That was a very interesting view of the Japanese congregations. I can see how a countrythat could once brag about their diligence in this religion now as a large group of jaded and mentally instable dubs. Never occured to me that most of the dubs were wives, but I can see how that occured. Kids have it great because they are away from their JW parents, surrounded by other students who are working hard towards a career

Mum

My theory about the decrease: According to the Guiness Book of World Records, the Japanese have the highest per capita IQ in the world. Smart people have better philosophies to adopt.

10 Years Japan losses 5,400 Publishers and 638 Kingdom Halls! Why?

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