In your experience how many DFd return to the WTS?

by teel 19 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

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  teel

  From the 11/15/09 WT study article: "it is heartwarming to know that a large number of such ones [disfellowshipped ones] later return to Jehovah and his congregation...". This is a typical cult phrase, where they use a generic unverifiable statement to prove a point. So, since we're not likely to get an official answer from the WT, how many of the DFd ones in your vicinity has actually been reinstated?

  I can recall a total of 7 disfellowshipped persons, out of whom one returned, so that's 14%. There are a huge number of faded persons here, only in our congregation there are at least over 15 who are well and healthy and stopped visiting the KH - they don't seem to care about the Watchtower. As for the article it only mentions the actual DFd ones, so they don't count then.
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  WTWizard

  Too many return. I will estimate the number of reinstatements I have seen:

  1989: One out, none back in.

  1990: One out, went back after 6 months.

  1991: Three out that I remember, two returned of those (one had been inactive).

  1992: One out, returned within 6 months.

  1993-95: One out (the second time), returned.

  1996: Two out--return status unknown because I started missing boasting sessions a lot.

  Beyond 1996, I am not aware of very many reinstatements--though some seem to be going in and out quite a lot. But, as I see it, too many were getting reinstated during the early 1990s.
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  dissed

  Someone here will find the source, but I believe a few years ago it was 25% come back.

  My experience as an Elder in the WTS would confirm this. I would guess with the support and aid of the Web, that number would be even less.

  True that would still be technically a large number, but a low proportion. The quote seems to be making people think this 'loving arrangement' works well, but a thinking person knows that to be wrong.

  Recently, a friend on Facebook revealed they were DF'd and lonely. I suggested they come here for support. Just a few years ago, they would have been all alone and maybe wanting to come back. That form of a discipline by the WTS is being undermined by sites such as this. No ownder we are in their 'cross hairs'!
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  blondie

  But how many are then df'd again shortly after that? In this area I was told that 4 had been reinstated the beginning of 2009, yesterday I found out that all four had been df'd again................
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  ~Jen~

  When I was in my JC meeting, they were basically begging for me to just apologize and I just wanted to be DF'd. They told me that once DF'd over half don't ever come back.
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  teel

  I believe a few years ago it was 25% come back

  This prompted me to make a spreadsheet using that figure. The "left" number is calculated using the formula: (avg.prev.year+baptized)*0.99-avg.this.year+reinstated. The 0.99 is there to account for deaths. Here it is, '96-'06 statistics:

  year avg.pub. baptized left reinstated
  1996 5,167,258 366,579
  1997 5,353,078 375,923 125,421
  1998 5,544,059 316,092 159,007 31,355
  1999 5,653,987 323,439 187,314 39,752
  2000 5,783,003 288,907 181,477 46,829
  2001 5,881,776 263,431 174,784 45,369
  2002 6,048,600 265,469 78,851 43,696
  2003 6,184,046 258,845 86,595 19,713
  2004 6,308,341 262,416 91,770 21,649
  2005 6,390,022 248,327 137,970 22,942
  2006 6,491,775 114,683 34,492
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  teel

  Indeed dissed, being lonely after getting DFd is a big part why most of that 25% return. It is a cult tactic: isolate members (in the WT case it's done by "no worldly association), so they don't have anyone to rely on, and institute a shunning policy; then when they're cast out they need to return, because they indeed feel an emptiness - but not of Jehovah, but of social interactions. It's that simple. And indeed forums, and in general online activity does alleviate some of the exit problems.

  A bit offtopic, as I have edited that spreadsheet it struck me what I've never seen before put so plainly: the baptized number is steadily declining. Using MS Excel as projection from the baptized column, it predicts by 2021 the new recruits will be reduced to 0
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  yknot

  In my congregation...... 98% get reinstated.

  My sister and two other are the only ones who have yet to be reinstated.......

  Most Dfd in my congregation never cease attending either......... usually over 'immorality' or drinking.
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  sir82

  the baptized number is steadily declining.

  It has actually ticked up a bit in recent years - 2005 is your last year showing number of baptized. I think it might be near, or even over, 300,000 again, in 2008.
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  blondie

  Baptized in 2008

  289,678