I've started this subject a few times and dumped out of it an equal number of times, hoping for better guidance. At this point, I think it is better for everyone to face highly likely outcomes and get realistic.
First, let's say it plainly: this is a depression. I define "depression" as a multiyear period of economic weakness, decline, and depressed economic opportunity. I also think if unemployment reaches the high teens that qualifies as well. Hardly anyone in the media will plainly say this although we may be entering the third year of a "recession"!. At some point, it just isn't a recession but something worse.
Second, nearly no one is willing to discuss the demographic problem facing the world. It's very simple: how can you have economic growth if you are losing net workers, net population, AND the fastest growing part of your population is retired people? Japan has been struggling with deflation and lack of growth while they lose net workers and people. Russia is losing people, as is most of Europe. They are shrinking.
...which brings up another question, namely, how can nations borrow huge amounts of money that is supposed to be paid back by grandchildren who aren't being born?
Third, new technology - and especially 'green' technology - are job killers. Consider an electric plant that runs on coal - men must work in mines and shovel coal. They must load it on to railroad cars for shipment. The railroad must deliver the coal to the plant. Other men must unload the coal and feed it into boilers. Now, put up some windmills and eliminate those jobs almost entirely.
Still, not convinced? Get an electric car. Drive by the shops that install mufflers. Forget oil changes. Forget tune ups. Forget gas stations.
Fourth, related to the above, consider the "Startrek effect". Consider what would happen if someone actually built a "Replicator" as on Startrek? You would say "Earl Grey Tea" or "a new uniform" or "bar of gold" and it would make it instantly. The effect would be massive deflation as prices for all goods fall. Furthermore, nearly all jobs would evaporate - except for those who maintain the replicator!
Ask yourself, how much of a "replicator" do we have already? The Internet has crashed the value of movies, recorded music and even pornography (ask Hugh Heffner about Playboy business). We don't need newspapers, magazines, encyclopedias, travel agents, and we're just getting started!
The solution to the emerging crisis is to accelerate development of stem cells and new energy technologies and develop a mass living standard that can be financed by a part time job. Unfortunately, no one seems to understand that we can't go back to the sort of mass economy that has existed. It's simply gone and no amount of stimulus can bring it back. We need to concentrate on the few remaining areas in which ultimate human needs have not been met - longevity, regeneration and permanent, cheap energy sources.
I advise the following. Develop your own business so that you can "negotiate" your costs and profits against greedy and inept governments who will try to tax everything. Think about nursing as a career, as the loss of doctors will only intensify their need. Get out of debt. Invest in Australian bonds (an emerging hard currency). Realize that most economic and political leaders are truly clueless, if not dishonest. Be ready to abandon the stock market in a heartbeat as all markets are linked and investments can't escape a general deflation.
Have hope. These are the birthpangs of a better human existence, a better way of life but it will be very bumpy.
metatron