The Future of the Economy

by metatron 10 Replies latest jw friends

  • metatron
    metatron

    I've started this subject a few times and dumped out of it an equal number of times, hoping for better guidance. At this point, I think it is better for everyone to face highly likely outcomes and get realistic.

    First, let's say it plainly: this is a depression. I define "depression" as a multiyear period of economic weakness, decline, and depressed economic opportunity. I also think if unemployment reaches the high teens that qualifies as well. Hardly anyone in the media will plainly say this although we may be entering the third year of a "recession"!. At some point, it just isn't a recession but something worse.

    Second, nearly no one is willing to discuss the demographic problem facing the world. It's very simple: how can you have economic growth if you are losing net workers, net population, AND the fastest growing part of your population is retired people? Japan has been struggling with deflation and lack of growth while they lose net workers and people. Russia is losing people, as is most of Europe. They are shrinking.

    ...which brings up another question, namely, how can nations borrow huge amounts of money that is supposed to be paid back by grandchildren who aren't being born?

    Third, new technology - and especially 'green' technology - are job killers. Consider an electric plant that runs on coal - men must work in mines and shovel coal. They must load it on to railroad cars for shipment. The railroad must deliver the coal to the plant. Other men must unload the coal and feed it into boilers. Now, put up some windmills and eliminate those jobs almost entirely.

    Still, not convinced? Get an electric car. Drive by the shops that install mufflers. Forget oil changes. Forget tune ups. Forget gas stations.

    Fourth, related to the above, consider the "Startrek effect". Consider what would happen if someone actually built a "Replicator" as on Startrek? You would say "Earl Grey Tea" or "a new uniform" or "bar of gold" and it would make it instantly. The effect would be massive deflation as prices for all goods fall. Furthermore, nearly all jobs would evaporate - except for those who maintain the replicator!

    Ask yourself, how much of a "replicator" do we have already? The Internet has crashed the value of movies, recorded music and even pornography (ask Hugh Heffner about Playboy business). We don't need newspapers, magazines, encyclopedias, travel agents, and we're just getting started!

    The solution to the emerging crisis is to accelerate development of stem cells and new energy technologies and develop a mass living standard that can be financed by a part time job. Unfortunately, no one seems to understand that we can't go back to the sort of mass economy that has existed. It's simply gone and no amount of stimulus can bring it back. We need to concentrate on the few remaining areas in which ultimate human needs have not been met - longevity, regeneration and permanent, cheap energy sources.

    I advise the following. Develop your own business so that you can "negotiate" your costs and profits against greedy and inept governments who will try to tax everything. Think about nursing as a career, as the loss of doctors will only intensify their need. Get out of debt. Invest in Australian bonds (an emerging hard currency). Realize that most economic and political leaders are truly clueless, if not dishonest. Be ready to abandon the stock market in a heartbeat as all markets are linked and investments can't escape a general deflation.

    Have hope. These are the birthpangs of a better human existence, a better way of life but it will be very bumpy.

    metatron

  • AGuest
    AGuest

    May you have peace... and THANK YOU! Your points are quite valid! May I contribute two more thoughts? Thank you!

    First, I am always flabbergasted at the bridge toll takers here in the Bay Area. They hem and haw, slowly counting money as you sit there with your dollars waving in the wind. Cars in the "Fastrak" lane whiz on by. I couldn't help myself once and so asked a taker, "You DO realize, don't you... that you're slow response will prompt people to sign up for Fastrak?" He replied, "Yes, that is what we all drivers to do, ma'am!" To which I responded, "And,so, let's say everyone signs up and uses the Fastrak lane. What, then, are YOU going to do for a LIVING?" The look on his face was CLASSIC!! I thought, "You think he'd be smart enough to KNOW they're slowly eliminating HIS means of living... and he's HELPING them!" Then I thought, "Well, no. They knew exactly what kind of person they were hiring: one who doesn't think too long... or too deep."

    Second, I don't know if folks GOT this, but a WHOLE lot (not all, but a lot) of employers who laid off workers in the past two years or so... didn't really HAVE to. Rather, they USED the current "economic crisis" to create the ILLUSION of needing to cutback on staff. The result? Less employees to pay (whoo-hoo for the employer!!)... and MORE WORK FOR THOSE WHO REMAINED!

    Now, rather than having, say, 2 people to do 9 people's job, they now have 1 person to do 5 people's jobs. If U.S. workers were overworked BEFORE the economic crisis... they (those that are working) are going to be even more so, now. The U.S. (if not the world)... is NOT working "smarter." They are working HARDER. It started with the introduction of the computer (now, you can do the work of 3-4 people with one!)... and just rolled right on into the "economic crisis."

    Anyway, the times are a-changin'... and a new era has began.

    Peace to you!

    A slave of Christ,

    SA

  • WTWizard
    WTWizard

    I keep hearing news that the economy is out of the recession. It is not--they are making that up so they can give Osama Obama the credit for repairing something that is still broken. Meanwhile, you have the Fed using your tax dollars to inflate the stock market--it could well go to 50,000 on this alone while the fair value is zero. I agree that we are not in a "recession", but a DEPRESSION--and a whopper of a Depression at that.

    We are never going to see jobs again--as long as the regulators prevent people from setting up their own businesses without taxing and harassing them (with trap laws designed to snag new businesses) and custom made laws to make them illegal. You are going to see the Rothschilds get richer, while your money buys less and less (if you have any, that is). We are in a Depression, with hyperinflation to come soon--I expect it sometime in 2010 as the Fed continues printing up money to drive up the stock market.

  • AGuest
    AGuest

    and may you have peace... but how is this about Obama (and why allude to him as Osama)? IF they are making things up, it's NOT to give credit to Obama: it's the keep the people from pulling down the government altogether, which was a concern regardless of WHO is in office. "They" would have done the exact same thing for McCain, Clinton, whoever. Because SOMEBODY's gotta LOOK like they're fixing the "mess" (which actually BEGAN... back with Reagan, moved through Daddy Bush's time, gained momentum with Bill... and then just ran amuck with W).

    WHOEVER came into the office was going to have to "look" like they were doing SOMETHING to stop the freefall.

    It CAN be stopped: just pull out of Iraq, to start... and then leave Afghanistan alone. And please, please don't give me that WMD-Al Qaeda-Taliban-Opium spiel. There were no WMDs (and the US knew that - they KNEW Hussein only bought yellow cake so that Iraq's enemy, IRAN, would THINK better of attacking, which was always a threat). It was... and is... about oil. Al Qaeda is in Pakistan and pretty much always has been. NO ONE cared about the Taliban... when they put them into position and when they were oppressing women and widows to the nth degree. And the Afghani opium trade is NOT about the U.S. war on drugs... but the world PHARMACUETICAL companies war with the black market.

    North Korea HAS nuclear weapons - ain't nobody going over THERE and capturing leaders.

    Pakistan HIDES Al-Qaeda AND Bin Laden - ain't nobody going over THERE and capturing no one.

    The 9-11 terrorists were from... SAUDI ARABIA. Ain't nobody going over THERE and doing nothing to NO one.

    The Clintons are Buddies of the Pakistanis. The Bushes are buddies of the Saudis. Mr. Obama hasn't shown himself to be a buddy of anyone other than a U.S. minister who said some things that, if you ask someone OTHER that white America... would be inclined to agree. SOME of us don't ascribe to the U.S. Marine "code" that puts God... AFTER country. SOME of us believe in a WORLD community... that physical borders aren't really much more than backyard fences which, yes, are to be respected, but are STILL situated in the same NEIGHBORHODD.

    Do I believe Mr. Obama is the modern "messiah?" Oh, give me a break: he's a man. Just as fallible and imperfect as all those who came before him. BUT... I don't get the disrespect for his name (Obama and NOT Osama)... same as I didn't get it when they disrespected Colin Powell's name (it's "COL-in"... NOT "CO-lin"... as in "colon")... or the ready-to-judge-and-condemn rhetoric and propoganda which IS borne of racism... because he hasn't done a SINGLE thing to warrant it being anything else... yet.

    WHEN folks like you stand up and SPEAK THE TRUTH ABOUT WHAT GEORGE BUSH DID TO THIS COUNTRY... then, and only then, will I entertain that comments like yours are NOT founded in racism. Even then, I don't really care: I just feel sorry for YOU... that you can't move PAST it... and deal with reality on BOTH sides.

    You're angry because your candidate didn't win... and I promise you, even if he/she did... but couldn't solve the country's problems, either, you would pull that old WTBTS schtick of defending them... to the end... in the name of "patriotism." Where, sir, is your patriotism... now?

    I bid you peace.

    SA, on her own... cause my Lord wouldn't even bother with such issues, but your use of "Osama" ticked ME off. It's deceitful, unwarranted, and, yes, racist.

  • Hopscotch
    Hopscotch

    Thanks for this excellent post Metatron.

    Hopscotch

  • zarco
    zarco

    Metatron – I enjoy your posts very much. They are thought-provoking. Below I present a few thoughts that disagree with yours.

    First, let's say it plainly: this is a depression.

    The United States and much of the developed world has had a economic slow down. However, the economies are not contracting, rather they are growing. Since the industrial revolution, incomes in the west have increased on average 1.5 percent per year, in the last 50 years 2.3 percent. These growth rates are unprecedented in human history.

    The Great Depression of the 1930s reduced income levels to what they had been about 20 years previously. For a few years, people had to live as their parents lived, not worse.

    If we are in a depression, we might have to live like individuals did a decade ago, but no worse than that. It is not a catastrophe, rather a blimp in the most prosperous time in human history.

    Second, nearly no one is willing to discuss the demographic problem facing the world. It's very simple: how can you have economic growth if you are losing net workers, net population, AND the fastest growing part of your population is retired people?

    It is true that population growth in the west if stagnate and that the population is growing older. However, the world’s population is increasing. This increase will produce more ideas through a larger pool of geniuses, more innovation, larger markets and trading partners. In today’s global market and economy the populations of a few countries has little effect.

    How can nations borrow huge amounts of money that is supposed to be paid back by grandchildren who aren't being born?

    The per-capita debt of the US is lower than any other western economy and it is a fraction of the GNP. See a representative table below illustrating the per-capita debt of top 10 countries.

    Greeks: $27,746

    Belgians: $27,023

    Austrians: $26,502

    Irish: $24,247

    Norwegians: $21,402

    Italians: $21,089

    French: $18,946

    Germans: $15,574

    Finns: $13,617

    Americans: $11,094

    Your point about new technology destroying jobs does not seem accurate. Think back to the greatest innovations of the 20 th century, the computer, the railroad, the internet, the airplane. In all instances new, robust markets developed around these innovations. History suggest that this will be the case again.

    We are living a great time, the economy is better, our health is better, we live longer and the list goes on and on. We will look back a decade from now and marvel at how far we have progressed.

    All the best,

    zarco

  • Robdar
    Robdar

    AGuest called it.

  • thetrueone
    thetrueone

    As for North America , the internal economic infrastructure of Canada and US is

    weakening down, mostly impart to the transference of manufacturing jobs going abroad to other countries with a lower standard of living and costs.

    Manufacturing jobs have been dwindling down at a alarming rate do mostly for that reason and also new technologies that lessen

    the amount of actual labor required. Perhaps the labor market may improve when the majority of baby boomers retire

    but thats still about 10 years away approximately. With less workers and fewer jobs this brings another concerning problem,

    because the majority of retirees will be out of the main stream of spending and put into a conserving mode.

  • zarco
    zarco
    the majority of retirees will be out of the main stream of spending and put into a conserving mode

    thetrueone - people in conserving mode is probably the best thing that can happen. I know that flies in the face of common knowledge, but consider:

    When people conserve they use less of things, those who produce such things are now freed up to do other things that add more value. If a retired person eats less there is more food and if no one wants the extra food the price of food goes down. Both good things.

    z

  • thetrueone
    thetrueone

    That might be true Zarco, but I was referring to is on a broad scale when people retire they aren't as apt

    to spend, particularly on high priced items such as cars, furniture, vacations etc.

    It was recently released as general information as an example, the Canadian government stated that in the year 2020

    one third of the population of Canada will be in retirement.

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