Fun with numbers (or the Watchtower running out of steam) Statistics

by Aussie Oz 25 Replies latest watchtower bible

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  OnTheWayOut

  I doubt very much the figures are deliberately manipulated per se and it seems to smack of desperation for apostates to claim so.

  Because they never deliberately manipulated their own statements/facts/numbers before?
  They totally misled members when they dropped 1874 and said they were always pointing to 1914 as the second coming.
  They totally manipulated their reprints of magazines when they put them in the bound volumes during their changeover from the 1914 Generation and the 1975 fiasco.
  They totally manipulated the NWT to say what would support their doctrines.
  
  While I tend to agree with yadda, I don't do so because I feel that it is beneath them. I just feel that they are saving the dishonest reporting for some desparation moments. They are keeping alive the beliefs of many in the know who really believe in their own sh*t not stinking.

  To be counted on the worldwide report you must still be an 'active' publisher, ie, you must have turned in a report for the last 6 months running come the end of the service year. That is still the definition as I understand it and I doubt very much they are flexible with this. At the worst they may count a couple of old publishers who can no longer report any time because of advanced age, senility, etc but who are otherwise faithful.

  When hundreds of thousands of members are elderly, "a couple" is an understatement. I believe the elders go around convincing the elderly that they can count 15 minutes every month simply by mentioning that they are JW's or something.

  ...some former 'inactive' parents who never went door-to-door to now put a report in and be counted as 'active' again simply by 'studying' with their children (eg, reading the "My Book of Bible Stories" book to their 6 year old) for at least one hour a month. The latter is what will explain the unexpectedly good publisher increase that will probably be reported this year. This clever little tweak will keep the annual report looking ok for the next few years. ....

  Genius observation. Fully agree. I am sure there are a bunch of husbands who desire to become MS's that started counting time for the wife in such a manor. I imagine some wives that do the same to get their husband counted as publishers.

  If the same criteria for reporting time that existed 10 years ago was still applied today the worldwide publisher report would probably be in the negative by now or close to it.

  Yes, that is the point. The standards are changed, the growth is fake.
• 

  foolsparadise
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  foolsparadise

  They lie about everything else.....why not the growth too?
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  Aussie Oz

  I see them as having major problems in the next twenty years. Not even fudging numbers, easier pub status, counting 1 hour, the elderly, etc is going to stop the fall from 90% per year av through the years 1918 to 28 down to the almost birthrate 4% these days. The figures themselves tell it. sooner or later that 4% is going to be 3, 2, 1, zero, -1 and so on.

  I'll bet my left nut that the G/B have done the same maths and have a space pod ready to evacuate to the carribean!

  Oz
• 

  AllTimeJeff

  Jehovah's Witnesses passed their half life a long time ago. Of course, since they resemble cockroaches, they will probably never die. They will change, and lie about it, as they always do.

  Eventually, the GB will evolve into the most pious, religious, treehouse club of all time. Being in a tree will bring them closer to god. They will also be able to keep better track of the last 3 practicing JW's left.
• 

  WTWizard

  The numbers may not be directly manipulated. However, that doesn't mean they are accurate.

  First, there are way too many fake time slips. The Filthful and Disgraceful Slavebugger is "cracking down" on dishonest slips--mostly in padding one's hours. However, it is all too often that someone will turn in a fake time slip to avoid a call from Brother Hounder. Sometimes the hounders themselves will turn in a fake time slip on behalf of a publisher that turned in nothing, just to appease the hounder-hounder. Otherwise, the hounders and hounder-hounders can make things pretty miserable for people that turn in nothing. These fake time slips are going to be counted in along with the real ones.

  Another way to inflate time is to put way too much pressure on children to start field circus. We all know what kind of pressure these children are under to get baptized--yearbook examples of children as young as 6 getting baptized, peer pressure to get baptized by 12 or 14 (and sometimes hounder pressure), and parental pressure to get them as unbaptized publishers as soon as possible. Though they actually put in the time, it is by force and so they have to turn in a slip. Left to their own devices, they would never have become witlesses. Obviously, these slips are also counted--and this could create an error of more than a million.

  Still another way to inflate the numbers is by making the consequences of leaving as harsh as possible. And, if the publishers do not turn in field circus time, the hounders will start hounding them to death to do and report field circus. They do this so they can turn in a good report to the hounder-hounder, to keep him off their backs. People will not want to do it, but they will do a few hours a month just to keep the hounders off their backs. Sometimes, family will put pressure on other members to do field circus. This is set up so people that do not have their hearts in it will go out anyways. I estimate as many as half the congregation, if not more, is in this category. It is even possible that as many as 80% of all publishers go out solely to keep the hounders or family off their backs.

  Finally, there is error correction. If they make a mistake that gives them too few publishers, that mistake will be fixed. However, they will "forget" to correct an error that is in their favor. Slips get counted twice and the mistake is not corrected, but if there is one slip not accounted for, they will recount them all until they get the highest number. That is the number that gets turned in. Again, this is to appease the hounder-hounder, who also has to answer to his hounder. I believe this is not as big a factor as coercion, force, and fake time slips.
• 

  treadnh2o

  The quality and quantity of real field service is definitely down.

  I drove by the KH yesterday(Sat.) morning at 9:30 a.m. The weathr was 72 degrees F. not a cloud in the sky.

  Four congregations meet at that hall. There was maybe 10-12 cars in the parking lot.

  My first thought was,"Doesn't anyone go out in service anymore"?

  Back in the 70's there would have been well over a 150 people out from 4 congregations.

  Now that Mom gets free time with the kids, the hours on the slip go up and the hours in the field go down!
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  Aussie Oz

  Of course, when the need to explain to the R&F arises, the spin will be that the end is near, the preaching work is done, buckle up and wait...and wait...and wait...and wait...

  ...while we run off with all the cash

  oz
• 

  Bystander39

  ...this year began allowing parents to count time studying with their children.

  Do you mean all those years ago, I wasn't following "the rules?" There were months - maybe years - when the only time I had was the 'study' time with my kids! If so, mea culpa.
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  Doug Mason

  The WTS would be absolutely delighted with growth figures like 19.5% and 13.5%, but the maths gives me different figures.
  
  According to my calculations,
  1950 (373,000) to 1970 (1,483,000) is an annual compound rate of 7.2% increase

  1970 (1,483,000) to 1990 (4,017,000) is a compound rate of 5.1% increase;

  1990 (4,017,000) to 2009 (7,313,000) is a compound rate of 3.2% increase.
  
  As an approximate verification, a compound rate of 7.2% should see a doubling every 10 years, so after 20 years we should see a doubling of the 10-year figure, which would be four times the initial figure.
  
  Long-term figures hide important details. The 1950s, following WW2, was a golden era for the WTS. But the first half of the 1960s saw a dramatic slowing in growth; by 1965 it was 3.2% and the following year it was 2.4%.
  
  Then in 1966, the WTS announced the significance year 1975. By 1969, they experienced an increase of over 10%, and in 1974 they grew by 13.5%. But in 1976 and 1977, they experienced an equally humiliating downturn, with further decreases in the succeeding years.

  Doug