World Conditions Continue to Improve

by zarco 58 Replies latest jw friends

  • villabolo
    villabolo

    Zarco:

    "Thomas Malthus said when welcoming in nineteenth century predicted that uncontrolled population growth would lead to mass starvation and human misery. It didn't happen then and will not in this century."

    I believe that the few persons who get a prediction right are usually off on the timing. Everyone thinks that a particular (realistic) doomsday scenario has to happen within their or their childrens lifespan.

    Yet there were famines throughout the world, in the 19 th particularly in China and before that century the Mayan civilization disappeared thanks to a series of droughts. It wasn't until the early 20 th century that Carl Bosch and Fritz Haber invented artificial fertilizer derived from natural gas. That eventually allowed the Earth's population to triple in size.

    Is that an improvement? No. Other than escalating the destruction of the environment most of those people are impoverished and unhealthy.

    villabolo

  • villabolo
    villabolo

    Farkel: Why? That's what farmers face all the time. Are you asserting that most food is raised indoors instead of in the open air?"

    Outdoor growing of food is what present day farmers face under present day population conditions. But if you want to increase that population 10 fold they are going to need to pull every trick in the book. For example, if you have several billion people living in Siberia where you're lucky to get one short growing season they will simply need to raise food indoors to take advantage of the wasted time (the equivalent of 3+ seasons). Even locations with rich soil and temperate climates will not be able to use the winter season unless their plants are protected from the frost.

    Bottom line, if you want to maximize the number of human beings you have to maximize their food growing potential, with indoor growing of food and then some.

    villabolo

  • Farkel
    Farkel

    :For example, if you have several billion people living in Siberia

    If anyone had several billion people living in Siberia, it would be a pretty dumb thing!

    Farkel

  • villabolo
    villabolo

    Farkel: "If anyone had several billion people living in Siberia, it would be a pretty dumb thing! "

    I totally agree with you but I used that example with zarco in mind because he said, "Population growth is the greatest thing that can happen." Unless he clarifies up to what extent population growth is a good thing I can only assume, based on my experience with others who express themselves in a similar fashion, that he meant unlimited growth. All the way into space which is a bit more hostile to live in than Siberia or even Antarctica.

    If I assumed too much and that is not what you meant to say zarco, then, please tell me, what are your limits on population?

    villabolo

  • Satanus
    Satanus

    Another thing. While growing food is more efficient today than probably ever before, it's efficieny can still be improved at lot. For instance, plants like corn and wheat can be bred back to being perrenials. This kind of farming reduces the need for water, firtiliser, tilling and general costs. As well, it would cut back on pollution. Also, it would pull more carbon dioxide of of the atmosphere.

    S

  • Farkel
    Farkel

    villabolo,

    : then, please tell me, what are your limits on population?

    I have no idea. The upper limit of course, would depend upon a lot of things, like food, as you say. If we had to live like Tyson chickens, I wouldn't call that "living." I feel, without any hard facts to back me up that we can currently sustain a much higher population than the 6.7 billion we have.

    Some breakthroughs in just a few technologies could easily negate all the predictions currently being made by "schmecksperts." A schmeckspert is a schmuck who pretends to be an expert! I have a dub education! Farkel
  • villabolo
    villabolo

    Farkel: "then, please tell me, what are your limits on population?"

    A little background information before I answer that question.

    I believe that self reliant communities of approximately 500 people each. I would model the communities after Arcosanti, an unfinished ecovillage 70 miles north of Phoenix. Land would be redistributed, let's say four square kilometers per community, which comes out to two acres per person. I believe that this amount of land is more than enough to provide several times the amount of food necessary.

    If the amount of grain that is being grown is four times the needs of each individual, that surplus will be sealed in Nitrogen packed cans. Presently this technology (which caters to the survivalist movement) is capable of storing dry grains for 20-30 years at room temperature. This would be enough food to counteract the effects of any megadroughts or crop damage of any sorts whether due to disease or climate change. That plus water collection systems in each community would guarantee survival and stabilize the population making it immune to whims of nature (and in my opinion man induced climate disruption).

    That explains, in simple terms, how I would prevent the population crashes. Preventing the population from rising (which inevitably perpetuates the cycles of boom and bust with all the human misery that Malthus correctly predicted) is a more subtle matter. In my opinion the inhabitants of these self reliant villages will know unconsciously and consciously that they are reaching a limit as their population begins to rise to 600, 800, 1200 etc.. What they will perceive is that their standard of living is going down slowly but surely. What they will do (the females mostly) is what many are already doing in Russia, Italy and other nations in Europe, even the USA which would be in negative population growth if it weren't for immigrants (the legal kind let alone illegals).

    It is important to note that the small size of these communities makes them more transparent and comprehensible. It's inhabitants would understand their "standard of living" would be declining thus creating a choice for them: Quality or Quantity? (Monty Python's "Every sperm is sacred" is a humorous analogy to what I'm expressing). Also, while any individual in this civilization is free to move anywhere he wants, he/she would have to be accepted by the village (which probably would put an end to imigration the moment they perceive that they have enough people.

    Also not all of the land would be given up for human habitation. About half or so, in the USA, would be dedicated to pure wilderness without human inhabitation of any sort. Furthermore since the cultural traditions of this village civilization will include knowledge of the past (those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it) the population will be self regulating. No forced abortions, etc.

    With a stable population on Earth the only expansion of Humanity would occur after several centuries when space colony technology becomes feasible. The same principles would apply to our Solar System as well as the Galaxy. No mindless uncontrolled exponential growth but population stability punctuated with brief spurts of growth. The "standard of living" then would probably be one "village" or a few residing in an O'Neill cylinder (let's say five miles wide by twenty miles long).

    Oh, now that I gave you some background information, let me say, or rather guesstimate, that the "limits" based on the above would be about half a billion to one billion in the North American continent. Yes, you can squeeze a lot more but why bother? What is this fetish with quantity?

    villabolo

  • Justitia Themis
    Justitia Themis

    And as for 'wars and reports of wars' as a sign of the times...

    http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G1-6911212.html

    November 12, 1988

    ASSUMING that war does not break out in the next few hours, on Sunday Europe will have been at peace for longer than at any time in its history, at least what is reliably known of its history. Previously, the longest period of European peace had been between the end of the Franco-German war in 1871 and the start of the first world war in 1914. What about the Russian-Turkish fight of 1877, the Balkan battles of 1911 and 1912, Turkey's invasion of Cyprus in 1974? Arguments, arguments. Look at the broad picture, the extraordinary peace that has engulfed the previously warring ...

  • moshe
    moshe

    Humans who are forced to live too close to each will turn on each other like chickens in a coop who peck each other to death . I for one, don't see the value of 100 billion people crammed into every bit of flat open space we have , living on a boring diet and a mundane existence. We are also reaching the point that technology offers few increases in the comforts of everyday life. The only thing left to invent is the Star Trek food assimulator to replace all the real food. For a society like that to function they will need to force everyone to wear standarized clothing ( jumpsuits, to eliminate all belts) that has extended wear, like all nylon/acrylic fabrics- plastic Croc type shoes/clogs that can be recycled over and over- no underwear either- too wasteful. Histroy has a lesson for us- every top predator has his day in the sun and then their day is over. It will be no different for humans.

  • Justitia Themis
    Justitia Themis

    The UN report, 2008 State of the Future, predicts that world population will drop to a level lower than today's by 2100. ...lot's of variables...only time will tell.

    http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/Global_Challenges/Gc-03.html

    "The current world population of 6.7 billion is expected to reach 9.2 billion by 2050, peaking soon afterward at 9.8 billion and then falling to 5.5 billion by 2100, according to the UN lower forecast. Scientific breakthroughs over the next 50 years are likely to change these forecasts, giving people longer and more productive lives than most would believe possible today. Nevertheless, global population is changing from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and low fertility."

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