The Economy for 2010

by oldflame 49 Replies latest jw friends

  • designs
    designs

    The Bretton Woods monetary system. The US became the monetary gate keeper for the world after WWII and as Warren Buffett said in his last annual shareholder speech all currenicies fall they are meant to.....invest accordingly.

    We are in a curious position with the Fed keeping interest rates near 0% and printing money to keep the market liquid, a sort of de facto inflation in devaluing the dollar. Bill Grossman of Pimco has moved about 20% of their funds to cash signaling their assumptions of a double dip recession.

    Still tough to get financing for projects unless your customer has gold bricks in their closet. Alan Greenspan will probably go down in history like Herbert Hoover, his big opus was to allow homeowners to use their home equity like drunken sailors on leave.

  • oldflame
    oldflame

    Today Obama was stated saying this that he was going to" imposing a freeze on domestic spending "

    This is what domestic spending is :

    The gross domestic product (GDP) or gross domestic income (GDI) is a basic measure of a country's overall economic output. It is the market value of all final goods and services made within the borders of a country in a year. It is often positively correlated with the standard of living.

    So does this help our country and it's economy or hurt it even worse. For me it would seem that if you cut off the spending inside our own country then that will hurt the economy even more. Correct me if I am wrong. What this country needs is for there to be more spending not less.

  • Think About It
    Think About It
    The Dow is now back in the double top 10,700 range. What happens next sharp reversal or break out to new highs? I started some short positions, but will sit on tight stops.

    What now? Dow went on to hit high of 11,200 and now stands at 10,600. Wouldn't take much to spook investors right now.

    Think About It

  • Highlander
  • freydo
    freydo

    Buffett: Municipal Debt Meltdown Will Hit US

    Thursday, 03 Jun 2010 09:18 AM

    By: Dan Weil

    "Add investment legend Warren Buffett to the list of those who warn of a municipal debt meltdown.
    Many municipalities have promised overly generous retirement and health benefits to public workers without any viable plans to bring in the money necessary to pay for those benefits. They have assumed unrealistic returns in their pension fund investments and unrealistic revenue from taxes. The Pew Center on the States recently estimated that as of the end of 2008 budget years, states had $1 trillion less than needed to pay for future pensions and medical benefits. And that number doesn’t even reflect much of the losses suffered by pension fund investments in the second half of 2008.

    “There will be a terrible problem, and then the question becomes will the federal government help,” Buffett said at a hearing of the U.S. Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in New York, Bloomberg reports. “I don’t know how I would rate them myself. It’s a bet on how the federal government will act over time.” In May, Buffett said the feds may end up having to bail out some states from their extreme financial woes.............."

    http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/warren-Buffett-Municipal-Debt/2010/06/03/id/360924?s=al&promo_code=A01D-1

  • Think About It
    Think About It

    What now? Dow went on to hit high of 11,200 and now stands at 10,600. Wouldn't take much to spook investors right now.

    I posted the above on 5/16/10. The Dow is now at 9,686 and the overall market is not looking good. Hopefully, we get a rally headed into earnings. Watch your holdings closely. The stock market could very easily take another big dive like 08'. Good luck.

    Think About It

  • Justitia Themis
    Justitia Themis

    The stock market could very easily take another big dive like 08'. Good luck.

    Hhmmm...sounds like a sale! I made a substantial amount of money in the 2008 demise by picking up undervalued stocks. ...bought $4,000 in Amazon.com for around $50.00 a share...and that was just one stock.

  • Justitia Themis
    Justitia Themis

    Correct me if I am wrong. What this country needs is for there to be more spending not less.

    GDP= C (consumption) + I (investment) + G (government spending) + ( X (exports) - M (imports)).

    GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)

    If C is down, and I is down, and (X-M) is down (which they all are) then the only way to increase GDP is to increase G...government spending.

    If G is increased, by say extending unemployment benefits, then that translates directly into increased C (food/clothing/shelter).

  • PrimateDave
    PrimateDave

    Just in case you missed it,

    Confessions Of A Wall St. Nihilist: Forget About Goldman Sachs, Our Entire Economy Is Built On Fraud

    And so he began:

    “Let’s say the government decides one day, ‘You know, we oughta listen to Che here, let’s throw the book at every firm and every executive that our people can make a case against. Because you know, gosh, it’s all about rule of law and blind justice, just like Che says.’ OK, so now this means indicting just about every serious player in finance, so they take down Goldman Sachs, they take down Citigroup, JP Morgan, BofA… and they also serve all the big funds who are at least as guilty, if not more. So they shut down Pimco, Blackrock, Citadel… maybe they indict Geithner and Summers, haul in some of Bush’s crooks… right?”

    “Too bad they don’t serve popcorn here, this is getting good.”

    “OK, now guess what you’ve just done? You’ve just caused the markets to completely tank. Remember what happened after the Lehman collapse? Remember how popular that made every politician in Washington? Still wondering why they coughed up a trillion bucks? They were scared for their lives; that’s why they voted for that bailout. You’d have done the same goddamn thing. But if we go after everyone guilty of fraud and theft, the market crash this country would see would make 2008 look like Sesame Street. Open that can of worms labeled ‘Fraud’ and the whole fucking economy collapses. You may as well prosecute people for masturbating. No one will know where the fraud investigation stops and who will be charged next—everyone will try to cash out, and the markets will tank to zero. And guess what happens when the markets tank to zero? Every fucking American with a retirement plan, or an investment portfolio, or a 401k—every state pension plan in the country, every teacher’s pension fund, every fireman’s pension—every last one of them will be wiped out. That’s what the Lehman collapse taught us.”

    “Us? It didn’t teach us anything but that this country is run by maniacs.”

  • NeckBeard
    NeckBeard
    http://www.jehovahs-witness.net/jw/friends/189346/3/The-Economy-for-2010

    Stimulus was a failure. F.A.I.L.U.R.E

    Net job impact of stimulus zero, from SF Federal Reserve study

    A study by Daniel J. Wilson of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, suggests that the net job creation from the $814 billion stimulus bill passed in February, 2009, was zero by August 2010. In the first year, the stimulus "saved or created" 2 million jobs (not 4 million as repeatedly claimed by the Administration), but this number proved to be short lived, paying for temporary jobs, at a very high cost of $400,000 per job "saved or created."

    By August, 2010, the impact of the stimulus on net job creation had disappeared . This is an astounding result, which destroys the Paul Krugman argument that the economy would be so much better right now, if only Congress had approved much more spending in February 2009. Double the initial spending, double the number of temporary jobs, with likely the same net result by this point in time, or a trivial number of "permanent jobs created . In fact, the unemployment rate is at a substantially higher percentage rate today at 9.8% than when the stimulus bill was passed.

    The E21 team concludes

    "The results suggest that though the program did result in 2 million jobs "created or saved" by March 2010, net job creation was statistically indistinguishable from zero by August of this year. Taken at face value, this would suggest that the stimulus program (with an overall cost of $814 billion) worked only to generate temporary jobs at a cost of over $400,000 per worker. Even if the stimulus had in fact generated this level of employment as a durable outcome, it would still have been an extremely expensive way to generate employment.
    Interestingly, federal assistance to state Medicaid programs appears to have decreased local and state government employment. One possibility is that requirements to maintain full Medicaid benefits in order to receive federal aid proved sufficiently expensive that state governments pushed though additional rounds of layoffs in non-health related areas. This finding may suggest a potential pitfall with the Wyden-Brown proposal to decentralize health reform efforts at the state level: if comprehensive insurance requirements are retained, the net effect of reform may only shift safety-net spending towards healthcare and away from other urgent priorities such as education or welfare assistance."

    http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2010/12/net_job_impact_of_stimulus_zer.html

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