What is the effect of something growing a certain percentage rate over time?

by Elsewhere 19 Replies latest jw friends

  • Elsewhere
    Elsewhere

    This is one of the most important concepts you could ever grasp. Unfortunately humans do not naturally understand this idea, so we need to throw in a bit of simple math to help us understand.

    Below is a series of videos that will help you understand.

    Yes, these are extraordinarily boring, but you will be a much better person for watching them.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pb3JI8F9LQQ

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFyOw9IgtjY

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQd-VGYX3-E

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHuwgxrTKPo

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3y7UlHdhAU

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyseLQVpJEI

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoiiVnQadwE

  • stillajwexelder
    stillajwexelder

    I took over 1 hour too watch all these. Well worth the effort. Terrifying and yet so simple and true - America and Western nations (growth at all costs) - The Roman Catholic Church (no contraception) and the Islamic religion (have as many babies as possible) are the problem

  • Elsewhere
    Elsewhere

    bttt

    Trust me, everyone, you will be very glad you watched this. It will open your eyes.

  • PrimateDave
    PrimateDave

    Yes, I became aware of this a few years ago as I kept up with Peak Oil and Limits to Growth related topics.

    The human species has overshot its resource base. It is only a matter of time until the population peaks and then declines to levels that can be sustained without the aid of fossil fuels. Probably the global economy will be the first casualty, and then each continent, region, and nation will have to fall back on whatever resources that remain. It doesn't necessarily have to be a disaster, but stubbornly following business as usual economic and political narratives will likely take us to the brink.

    From: Cassandra's curse: how "The Limits to Growth" was demonized

    The change in attitudes was gradual and spanned a number of years, however we can locate a specific date and an author for the actual turning point, the switch that changed LTG [Limits to Growth] from a respectable, if debatable, study to everybody's laughing stock. It happened in 1989 when Ronald Bailey, science editor of the Forbes magazine, published a sneering attack (Bailey 1989) against Jay Forrester, the father of system dynamics. The attack was also directed against the LTG book which Bailey said was, “as wrong-headed as it is possible to be”. To prove his point Bailey revived an observation that had already been made in 1972 by a group of economists on the "New York Times" (Passel 1972). Bailey said that:

    “Limits to Growth” predicted that at 1972 rates of growth the world would run out of gold by 1981, mercury by 1985, tin by 1987, zinc by 1990, petroleum by 1992, copper, lead and natural gas by 1993.

    In 1993 Bailey reiterated his accusations in the book titled “Ecoscam.” This time, he could state that none of the predictions of the 1972 LTG study had turned out to be correct.

    Of course, Bailey’s accusations are just plain wrong. What he had done was extracting a fragment of the LTG text and criticizing it out of context. In table 4 of the second chapter of the book, he had found a row of data (column 2) for the duration, expressed in years, of some mineral resources. He had presented these data as the only "predictions" that the study had made and he had based his criticism on that, totally ignoring the rest of the book.

    Reducing a book of more than a hundred pages to a few numbers is not the only fault of Bailey's criticism. The fact is that none of the numbers he had selected was a prediction and nowhere in the book it was stated that these numbers were supposed to be read as such. Table 4 was there only to illustrate the effect of a hypothetical continued exponential growth on the exploitation of mineral resources. Even without bothering to read the whole book, the text of chapter 2 clearly stated that continued exponential growth was not to be expected. The rest of the book, then, showed various scenarios of economic collapse that in no case took place before the first decades of 21st century.

    In reality there will be no run away exponential growth in population at this point in time. Limited resources will have a greater effect in reducing populations as we go even just a couple of decades further into the 21st century.

  • Elsewhere
    Elsewhere

    bttt

  • SirNose586
    SirNose586

    Now I think the interesting thing to see will be how world leaders make these population control methods (war, disease, etc.) national policy. I have a hunch that those in power (be they public or private) know the crisis is unfolding and will take steps to start population control.

  • St George of England
    St George of England

    Checked my bank statement against this and did not see much correlation!

    George

  • stillajwexelder
    stillajwexelder

    As usual CHINA is ahaed of the curve and already been practicing population control for about 20 years. Try tellin Muslim nations to practice population control -Bin Laden has about 54 children doesnt he?

  • startingover
    startingover

    Thanks for posting this Else, I'm glad I now know about this.

  • Elsewhere
    Elsewhere

    bttt

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