Do we have stats on a 'mass exodus'?

by Aussie Oz 20 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

• 

  Aussie Oz

  I see at times, talk of how many are leaving the JWs, how the young ones are leaving in droves, that more and more are 'waking up' etc.

  Can we substanciate this?

  I mean, actual stats to show this, not just small or negitive growth in lands such as The United states, as there are larger growths in other countries.

  There are of course the downsizings of bethels etc, but downsizing is not always a sign of members leaving is it? Sales may be down resulting in streamlining organization as with any corporation.

  Numbers D/F each year getting larger? Reports from bethel moles?

  Perhaps this is a big ask and nothing is available... But that makes the 'talk' anecdotal or wishful thinking does it not?

  Dont get me wrong! I want to see them decline! Just curious as to facts...

  oz
• 

  penny2

  As far as I know, the stats do not show a mass exodus. They actually show a small increase.

  penny
• 

  Black Sheep

  You can get an estimate on losses using annual stats from the YB. Last time I did it it was about 100,000 unaccounted for that year.
• 

  Jim_TX

  I think that if one did crunch the numbers - they should do it by region.

  (I think that this is already done in the YB's each year.)

  Why by region? Because this is the only way to get a true picture of what is going on. In countries like the U.S. where folks have access to tools like the internet, one might see the numbers going down (or staying flat).

  In countries that are less developed (??) one might see phenomenol growth. If one lumped these numbers into the same bucket, overall there would be a growth.

  Not sure this is coming across clearly...

  Regards,

  Jim TX
• 

  Jim_TX

  Yikes!!! Double post. Sorry.
• 

  Desilusionnee

  Hi,

  That may help.

  http://www.jwfacts.com/watchtower/statistics.php

  Desi
• 

  Black Sheep

  2008 Ave 6829455
  2009 Baptised 276233
  Ave + Baptised = 7105688
  - Deaths @ 1% = 7034631
  
  
  Actual 2009 Ave 7046419
  
  Unaccounted for 11788

  So, no we don't have stats on any mass exodus.
• 

  wobble

  We have done this exercise before on other threads over the last couple of years.

  The only way to get a good hold on this is to take a region, as said above and do a ten year analysis.

  Why ten years ? last years peak pubs, or average pubs, include most of those who got baptised.

  You have to allow for an average death rate of 1% as said above.

  We came to the conclusion before that there has never been a mass exodus in recent years, but there is one helluva hole in the bottom of the bucket.

  Of course the GB don't care as long as it stays with a small growth over all, but you have to remember that these ones leaving are ones who have learned the religion, believed it, and got baptised, then lived the religion, and then found it wanting.

  If I was a member I would be wondering two things, one, why do the GB and there minions down the line not give a flying **** about these ones, and more importantly, two, what do these people know that made them leave ?
• 

  sir82

  2008 Ave 6829455
  2009 Baptised 276233
  Ave + Baptised = 7105688
  - Deaths @ 1% = 7034631

  Of course if you factor in deaths you also have to account for births, at least births 12-15 years ago. Most of those born in eventually get baptized as teens, and the majority of them leave as young adults.

  At this point it's just a revolving door.

  New recruits, as in people with no previous ties to the religion becoming converted, are becoming quite scarce in western lands (3rd world immigrants to said lands excepted).
• 

  Mad Sweeney

  Not only do you have to account for births 10 years ago if you account for deaths, you also can't add baptized to publisher averages because you have to ALREADY BE a publisher in order to get baptized (so you're double-counting the same people if you do that). Someone baptized this year probably became a publisher LAST year or even earlier (especially in the case of children).

  In other words, new publishers and new baptisms are two different animals.

  Paul at JWFacts looks at this from all different angles but I'm not sure if he's done an update in a couple years.

  I like Jim in TX's idea of doing it regionally. North America has to be flat or zero growth. Western Europe similarly. South America and Africa still have growth. Asia isn't growing either, most likely. These are guesses. I'd like to see an analysis on all of them, though.