Confirmation Bias

by allelsefails 18 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

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  allelsefails

  I've read a lot of crap in my life (not just WTS) and I have finally found the phrase to describe almost EVERY religious wrting I've read. "Confirmation Bias" affects how JWs look at historical facts, how Dems and Repubs look at economic facts, or how all people look at information presented to them. I still go to meetings every once in a while to make my wife and my boss feel better about me, but sometimes I can't believe how idiotic some things are. I look around at people I know and care about - people I know are not stupid - and I wonder how they can swallow such large loads of crap.

  I hope anyone who is interested in this would post other logical fallacies that they see - esp JWs, but I love them all.
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  ihadnoidea

  I think to a degree we all are affected by confirmation bias. I think though the org takes it to a whole another level by controlling the information you can even evaluate.

  I am not sure if this qualifies as a confirmation bias, but will mention anyway. People will often use certain Bible scriptures to say that Bible is scientifically correct (in there interpretation), and therefore from God. Yet, other religious books are scientifically correct at times too. For example, Hinduism has the age of the universe at 19 billion years which is close to estimates given by modern day scientists (Google hinduism 19 billion for a reference). I think those same people would dismiss that other religions are correct scientifically at times, yet still use that talking point on the Bible as a defense to it being from God.
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  breakfast of champions

  This is a great post- interesting stuff! Not that Wikipedia is the ideal source, but check out the example they give under their listing for 'Confirmation Bias':

  "As a "striking illustration" of confirmation bias in the real world, Nickerson mentions numerological pyramidology: the practice of finding meaning in the proportions of the Egyptian pyramids.[99] There are many different length measurements that can be made of, for example, the Great Pyramid of Giza and many ways to combine or manipulate them. Hence it is almost inevitable that people who look at these numbers selectively will find superficially impressive correspondences, for example with the dimensions of the Earth.[99]"
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  breakfast of champions

  An interesting and kind of related article from the NY times today:

  http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/15/arts/people-argue-just-to-win-scholars-assert.html
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  allelsefails

  Thanks Breakfast. It is like reading your Horoscope (which applies to 500,000,000 people) and seeing how true it was today. When I have studied the old "Studies in the Scriptures" It is really amazing that someone like Russell could put such faith in Pyramidology. Funny that the Pyramid proves "1914" according to Russel but JWs today will tell you it is Spiritism. Silly peoples......

  I think it is good study to look at logical falacies and then honestly look at what you think and believe to judge your own insights. I think (with all my fallacies) it has helped me be balanced in my life.
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  Walt Whitman

  Reminds me of the quote from Anais Nin: "We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are."
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  Band on the Run

  Confirmation bias exists everyplace. I've read that observing science distorts the science, particularly with particle physics. I freely acknowledge my confirmation bias. I want Jesus to be God and to be triumphant. Further, he is the answer to all my fears and desires. The WT claims no bias but they want to believe iin a mean, niggardly Jehovah, full of wrath. They believe the world is no good, even evil. And they see confirmation.

  Who is to say they are wrong? I find it unlikely but my views are just as irrational.
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  breakfast of champions

  The WT 10/1/2011 is an AMAZING demonstration of confirmation bias. Just one example. On page 28 under the box "A Pivotal Date In History/Confirmation By A Cuneiform Tablet":

  '...Though this tablet contains some errors...'

  Now, if this tablet were supporting Jerusalem's destruction in 587 , these 'errors' would render this evidence as corrupted, flawed.

  But since it supports the 'pivotal date' of 539 from which we derive 607, this is rock solid fact.

  Amazing.

  Though, as has been mentioned in another thread, most readers will look at the pretty pictures and nod approvingly.
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  SweetBabyCheezits

  Allelsefails! This is a subject I've been really interested in for the last year and it sounds like you're going down a similar path: How do we reach truth when we know biases/prejudices corrupt our judgment? We recognized that we have made poor choices in the past due to flawed judgment, as well as our parents and otherwise brilliant leaders. So what can we do to avoid that kinda thing in the future?

  Best answer I've found is critical thinking, as a defined set of skills.

  http://www.criticalthinking.org/articles/valuable-intellectual-traits.cfm

  Also, if you ever get a chance, check out Carl Sagan's book Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark. There's a specific chapter on The Art of Baloney Detection. It nails common fallacies used in religion, politics, etc... Great read.
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  SweetBabyCheezits

  Also, there's a pretty good guide floating around online that discusses the different cognitive biases.

  Identifying them is, I believe, a pretty important step in suppressing them.