by jwfacts 140 Replies latest watchtower beliefs
jgnat
What would KH post on their individual websites-
Meeting Times yes
Service Arrangements yes
Assemblies yes
Picnics no
Weddings no
Funerals maybe
Hall Cleanups maybe
Community Events no
Food Banks no
They could do audio visual of the talks and pictures of smiling Lambs and Lions grazing together.....
The true effect of the internet is on (a) kids born into JW families and (b) potential new recruits.Regarding the kids, today's teens have never lived in a Google-less world.
That is very much what the statistics show. The graph below shows the increasing number of hours of preaching required per baptism. That shows the difficulty getting conversions - which is made up of teens raised as JWs and new recruits.
I am only 40(+), but being born in the 1900's 1914 does not seem that far away to me. However, 1874 seems distant and irrelevant. But how about anyone born after 2000. The age people are at the biggest risk of conversion is generally late teens/early 20's. In another 10 years, the Watchtower hunting ground is going to be people born in this century, to whom 1914 will be of no relevance whatsoever. Combine that with the internet and what hope will there be of conversion. Those kids will get on the internet and see 607 is wrong, therefore 1914 is not only irrelevant, but baseless, and they will quickly dismiss the religion as quackery.
India and China a population closing to over 2.5 billion and mere handfuls of activity there, all the Islamic nations are either under ban and will never see JW inroads
I am reading Jehovah's witnesses portrait of a contemporary religious movement, and it shows that even in Western countries conversions are predominantly from another Christian background, so there really is little hope of growth in the non-Christian half of the world.
"It will take place after "the tribulation" mentioned at Matthew 24:29, 30 breaks out and the Son of man 'arrives in his glory.'"
How is this future arrival in his glory different from arriving in 1914? Anybody see a contradiction here? Two parousias? One invisible presence and one visible? If he arrives in the future, how can He be present now? Am I missing something here? Are they trying to have it both ways so they can deny their false 1914 date when the visible Christ does in fact return? Are they speaking out of both sides of the mouth to cover their bets? Where in their publications do they explain this inconsistent thinking?
About the 120 year generation idea, that has been discussed here on JWN a few times. I, and many others, fully expect the Borg to float that idea but not until the late 2020s at the earliest and perhaps not until the 30s. They're going to ride the overlap for as long as they can and then switch to the 120 year generation (2034 end date) as late as they can.
Thinking about the effect of the Internet on the Borg growth - or lack thereof - do you think the number of teens who leave will increase even greater than the currently thought 2/3 and if so, how much do you think it could grow? And just how futile will recruiting from the outside become?
do you think the number of teens who leave will increase even greater than the currently thought 2/3 and if so, how much do you think it could grow? And just how futile will recruiting from the outside become?
I think this is impossible to answer, as there are so many variables, plus the Watchtower will constantly change. The religion can always get converts as there will always be the gullible that are attracted to a social group of friendly people. The Watchtower is not going to let itself just die out, so it will change doctrine and practice to keep relevant in the future. If they get some new charismatic leader there is always the chance that it could even start to increase growth in the future.
I know you can't predict with certainty but I was hoping for some speculation. What's your gut tell you?
Mine says the numbers of born-ins leaving will approach 3/4 before the Borg considers adapting.
And recruitment, especially of men, is going to have to change to become more appealing in the present life. Men aren't going to go through the crap brothers go through for something that doesn't pay off until they're dead - and long-term brothers are waking up to the fact that they're going to grow old and die in this system. So to get new brothers to join and serve, they need something in return. I expect the Borg to give local brothers a greater illusion of power. It won't be real but it will be enough to get men to want to be elders (unfortunately it will be the wrong kind of men).
This will all become necessary some time from 1915-1918ish.
There's my speculation. Totally unsupported by evidence - purely hunch.
JWFACTS - I like your point about the '19-wha???' factor.
I think in the next 5 - 10 years we will see the confluence of at least 3 factors:
1) Anyone 'born-in' during the 21st century who is 'coming of age' is going to say "Are you kidding me!?" when presented with 19th/20th century 'evidence.' Irrelevant is a good word.
2) Anyone with half a brain on the outside will immediately google 'Jehovahs Witness' if they are at all interested in the religion and see it for what it is.
3) In the post 2014 world, I have to wonder for how long sincere persons will put up with the "How happifying it is to be 100 years into Christ's millennial reign. Only 900 years to go!" rhetoric they've already started.
I know you can't predict with certainty but I was hoping for some speculation. What's your gut tell you?
I agree with your figure of 3/4 as being realistic. I am surprised that it is not already there. Franz in COC mentioned it was 2/3 back in the 70's, so with the support of the internet I wonder why it is not yet higher than back then. Many of the young JWs that I see street witnessing these days look like "geeks", and I feel sorry for them, because they would really struggle if they left and joined the real world. I think there will always be those that do not have the fortitude to leave.
I mentioned that a charismatic leader would be needed to stop the downward trends. However, there do not seem to be any yet. The current GB are going about things the wrong way, becoming more cultlike, rather than more open, which is going to be counter productive in the long run.
Sweeney, Facts, and BOC,
As we move further into the 21st century, and the Internet becomes as much a part of everyones lives as TV and radio were in the late 1900s, the Watchtower will find itself forced into a corner and will have to change tactics.
Someone knocks on your door. Quick howdy-do and gives you a magazine. Who are these people? you ask. Let's look them up on the Internet. Let's Google them. Oops, what this? Freeminds - JWfacts - Watchtower Documents - JWN - Ex-JW.com? Oh my! Even Wikipedia! Obviously they're a cult, made bad predictions, covered up child abuse, treat women as second-class citizens, shun dissenters, break up families, etc., etc., etc.
No way would you want to join or even be a part of such a religion. Might as well join a Bible-thumping Baptist church. At least they let their kids celebrate their birthdays and play Little League baseball. And if you leave the church, you won't lose your family.
And if you're already in the religion, who's going to see you check out a site like JWN once in a while? Won't you want to find out what the latest scandal is or what the most recent version of the Elder's handbook has to say? You'd find that in about 5 minutes on the Web.
Let's face it. Every home will have a computer or iPad or something similar. Their new TVs will have Internet access so that they can get streaming movies. People are curious and will look to see what the latest "gossip" might be. As the over 50s JWs die off (or get DF'd) they will be replaced by a more informed group of people in an out of the WT who will finally have the knowledge that leads to "living a real life" unencumbered by the WT cult.
JV
Based on what I've observed in this organization since 1879 - for 132 years- I don't think the WT society is going to change it's tactics. The leaders of this cult stubbornly refuse to admit fault about ANYTHING really - and the consolidation of power and control over 7 million JW's seems to be the priority to them. I look for them to become even MORE controlling, cultish, and hard lined disciplinarian in their attitudes towards rank and file JW's. In Steve Hassan's books he mentions that the more desperate a cult becomes when it sees it's losing members - the leaders of those cults become even MORE strict and controlling in their teachings, actions, and attitudes towards members. I believe we are seeing that right now as we move along through 2011 in the Jehovah's Witness cult
